Goal Assessment: Game 47 - Devils 3 Pens 2

Link to Game 47 Thoughts:  The PensNation

+/- Assessment

1st Goal For (Cooke): + for

• Sutter – takes the puck down the left wing and backhands it towards the net
• Morrow – takes out the defenseman on the crease so the puck ricochets off of him and out towards Cooke
• Cooke – shoves a backhander underneath Hedberg that slides into the net

2nd Goal For (Jokinen): + for

• Letang – makes a pass from the defensive blue line to Jokinen streaking up at the offensive blue line
• Jokinen – rifles a wrist shot past Hedberg

1st Goal Against (Zajac): - for

• Kennedy – fails to clear the puck at 3 different opportunities when it’s high on the boards by the blue line
• Niskanen – gets too far away from Zajac and leaves him with too much room with the puck
• Murray – doesn’t clear the crease and let’s Clarkson completely screen Fleury

2nd Goal Against (Clarkson): - for

• Dupuis – in the penalty box for tripping
• Adams – wanders over to Clarkson but doesn’t try to tie up his stick in shooting position

3rd Goal Against (Kovalchuk): - for

• Sutter – trails the wrong player, leaving Despres isolated into a 2 on 1 situation, then deflects the puck into the net

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Can't Win Them All, Penguins Lose Another

Main Storylines:

Pictured: Immeasurable goaltending wisdom

• A little self-plug to start: My thoughts on the Fleury-Vokoun debate and goaltending statistics in general:  http://thehockeywriters.com/fleury-vs-vokoun-how-much-do-goalie-statistics-matter
• Kris Letang was placed on the IR and Joe Morrow was called up as insurance for the defense.  Letang is eligible to return on Wednesday though.
• Tomas Vokoun and Johan Hedberg get the start in a battle of the backups
• The Penguins are wearing their dark blue jerseys to the chagrin of everyone
• Joe Vitale is a healthy scratch (after taking 2 boarding penalties on Saturday) and Dustin Jeffrey returns to the lineup on the 4th line
• Matt Cooke is playing in his 900th career game

Result:

Devils 3  Pens 1

Goals:  Neal (8) (PP) from Kunitz, Malkin

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442644

Stats:

• Sidney Crosby went 19 for 24 in faceoffs (Malkin 7 for 14, Sutter 8 for 15, Jeffrey 0 for 2)
• Tyler Kennedy received a boost in play, getting 13 minutes of ice time
• Evgeni Malkin led the team with 5 shots

The Good:

Winning puck battles, that's what Pascal Dupuis does

• Evgeni Malkin:  After getting a little too involved in Saturday’s loss, Malkin played a steady game and helped set up the Penguins’ only goal.  He had a few great scoring chances but was stymied all night by Johan Hedberg who made some fantastic saves.  It was a good bounce-back game for Malkin even if there wasn’t a ton of offensive production with it.
• Pascal Dupuis:  Dupuis continued his strong series of games with great defensive work as usual.  He also drew two penalties: one on Gionta for interference and one by forcing Volchenkov into a delay of game with a hard forecheck.  He may not be adding a ton to the scoresheet right now, but Dupuis is a big reason that the top line has a strong +/- and he’s giving the team opportunities to score.

The Bad:

• Simon Despres:  As the rollercoaster that is Simon Despres continues, he went a little downhill in the second game against the Devils.  Puck handling was the root of his problem as he lost it in the defensive zone at least three times.  To his credit though, his recovery efforts after he makes a mistake are improving.  Keep learning Simon, you’ll get there.
• Paul Martin:  The first appearance by Martin in the bad section this season will likely be a short stay.  Martin looked a little sluggish, tired, and like he was trying to do a little too much for the Penguins.  He had some sweeping poke checks that were missing their mark badly and he was at fault for losing the puck at the offensive blue line as Kovalchuk took it to score the Devils’ 2nd goal.  Martin definitely looks like he could use a day off right now.

The Ugly:

Pictured: The Penalty Kill.

• Penalty Kill:  The PK went 0 for 1 but that isn’t necessarily why they are on here.  It’s because of the manner they went 0 for 1.  After killing off 8 out of 10 penalties on Saturday, one would think the Pens would have had the book on the Devils’ PP.  Instead, the Penguins reverted back to the passive box they used in the Islanders loss (which seems forever ago).  Stuck in the passive box, there was no resistance to the original shot on Vokoun and no one to tie up Clarkson on the crease when he went after the rebound.  I will never understand giving an opposing forward the whole crease and slot to work with uncontested, especially when it’s David Clarkson.

+/- Assessment:

• 1st GA (Clarkson): - for Engelland (pinches in zone, gets caught too far)
• 2nd GA (Kovalchuk): - for Martin (giveaway at offensive blue line)
• 3rd GA (Clarkson): - for Neal (penalty), Orpik (miles away from the crease)
• 1st GF (Neal): + for Martin (breakout pass), Malkin (finds Kunitz in slot), Kunitz (passes over to Neal), Neal (goal)
• Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Thoughts:

Good work Boychuk, infiltrate their bench.

• New Jersey Devils:  While I generally just pick apart what the Penguins do in every post-game analysis, I have to give New Jersey credit for an impressive game. The Devils took advantage of the few opportunities they had, and were absolutely dominant at times in the offensive zone as they cycled the puck.  This is one of those losses where there is no point in being mad; the other team just played a very well-executed game.  They also did a wonderful job of attacking the points on the ice where the Penguins usually run their breakouts.  People may want to complain about the trap since it’s New Jersey, but with their pursuit and puck possession, the Devils did a hell of a lot more than trap. Also give Johan "Moose" Hedberg a lot of credit for showing some amazing anticipation and playing great.
• Vitale Scratched:  This move was likely because Vitale took two boarding penalties on Saturday, but I found it to be a misguided switch.  Vitale has provided so much energy to this team and has worked so well with Glass and Adams that I thought he was a fixture in this lineup by now.  The Pens certainly could have used that energy and speed as the Devils took the game over for large amounts of time.  I’m glad Jeffrey got back in the lineup, but I’m not sure Vitale was the right scratch.
• 2nd Line Wing:  Give Boychuk credit, he is developing chemistry with Malkin and the two had some very nice passing plays.  If it wasn’t for Hedberg’s excellent work, Boychuk would probably have had an assist or two.  However, Hedberg did play excellent and Boychuk still isn’t producing quite as much as I would like to see.  I’m still onboard with putting Jeffrey back on the 2nd line for a game or two.  I’m not saying give up on Boychuk by any means, but someone has to earn that spot eventually, right?
• Defenseman Injury Report:  Niskanen has been skating and said he was still a couple days away.  While he might be ready for Wed, it’s far from a sure thing yet.  Letang was placed on the IR retroactive to Tuesday, so he will be eligible to return on for Wed if he is ready.  I have seen reports ranging from “lower body injury” to “groin injury”.  If it’s a groin injury, give Letang extra days to rest because that type of nagging injury can derail his whole season with how he plays.  The young guys are playing well enough for the Pens to take their time right now.

Pens Record: 8-5-0, 16 pts

Next Game:  2/13 vs Ott, 7pm

Penguins Watch Loss From the Penalty Box

Main Storylines:

• The Penguins enter this game on a 5 game winning streak. Crosby is on a 6 game point streak
• Martin Brodeur is playing in his 1200th game
• Kris Letang did not make the trip to NJ so the lineup remains the same as last game
• Matt Niskanen has been skating separately but there is no timetable for his return
• Former Penguin Tomas Sandstrom was elected to the Swedish Hockey Hall of Fame

Result:

Devils 3  Pens 1

Goals:  Sutter (3) (PP) from Despres, Kennedy

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442629

Stats:

• The Pens took 12 minor penalties in the game
• Sidney Crosby had 6 shots and Evgeni Malkin had 5
• Malkin drew 4 penalties and took 3 penalties
• Craig Adams played 1:19 at even strength and 6:09 shorthanded

The Good:

Last year, Martin elbows Clarkson in the head and passes
the puck to a Devils player.

• Pascal Dupuis:  Despite taking 1 of the 12 minors, Dupuis had an overall good game and caused havoc in the passing lanes for New Jersey.  He was credited with 2 takeaways and provided strong defensive support at even strength and on the penalty kill.  He actually contributed to pretty much every situation for the Pens, playing 2:44 on the PP, 6:11 on the PK, and 9:30 at even strength.  Sadly, the biggest reason Dupuis had a good game was because the Pens spent most of the game in the defensive zone.
• Paul Martin:  It was just another game for Martin, leading the team with 28:49 on the ice and playing mostly mistake-free hockey.  Unfortunately he finally took his first penalty of the season, but the team survived the PK without him.  I was most impressed with his offensive zone puck movement in this game even though it didn’t amount to anything. He certainly loves that spin move at the point and you can tell his confidence is extremely high with how often he goes to it right now.

The Bad:

• James Neal:  Neal seems to be going through bouts of brilliant hockey and useless hockey depending on the day.  The train to the penalty box certainly didn’t help his cause, but he took an awful slashing penalty to end a powerplay and generally had puck control problems all day.  With a couple turnovers and missed passes on Saturday, I’m guessing Neal bounces back for a strong game on Sunday since that has been his trend this season.

The Ugly:

Hard to stop everything when it's 5 on 4 for over a period.

• Discipline:  TWELVE MINOR PENALTIES.  Going back through most of them, the ones that were questionable were Vitale for boarding, Vitale for boarding, and that’s it.  Take away another (Bortuzzo for roughing) as a coincidental minor and that still leaves NINE BAD PENALTIES.  That’s simply unacceptable.  The Pens had a chance to feel everything out with a 1-0 first period lead and didn’t learn anything as the game went on.  Instead they got increasingly frustrated and took some foolish penalties.  Every player has to be smarter than that.

+/- Assessment:

• 1st GF (Sutter): + for Reese (keeps puck in zone), Kennedy (passes to Despres), Despres (one-timer), Sutter (deflection goal)
• 1st GA (Matteau): - for Cooke (goes to wrong point), Orpik (releases on Matteau)
• 2nd GA (Henrique): - for Glass (penalty)
• 3rd GA (Butler): - for Malkin (penalty)
• Season +/-: Click here for the Season +/- spreadsheet

Thoughts:

Not always pretty, but what a legendary goaltender.

• Evgeni Malkin:  Malkin drew the ire of most people today, drawing 4 penalties but also taking 3 (one of which cost a potential powerplay).  I have to imagine most of the people that are quick to turn on Malkin are also the ones quick to turn on Fleury.  Both players are high risk, high reward players.  You’ll get lots of positives AND negatives with both, but far more positives in the long run.  Everyone just has to accept that with both, it’s not going to change.  For what it’s worth, I had Geno marked down for 11 positive plays and 7 negative plays in this game.  The next player I had marked down the most was Dupuis with 8 plays total.  That’s just what you get with Geno, he’s going to be very involved and it’ll come with negatives.  More often than not, it’s worth it.
• Martin Brodeur:  Give credit to Brodeur for this game as well.  He made two outstanding saves that put an exclamation mark on this game.  The first one was on Kunitz on the very first shift of the game, and the 2nd one was on the 2nd to last shift on Malkin.  The Pens could have played 100x better and may still not have beaten Marty more than once.
• Refs/Penalties:  While most of this is covered under “The Ugly,” the team failed miserably at adjusting to how the game was called.  The refs were clearly calling the game tight early; New Jersey took their fair share of penalties for it too.  It’s up to the players and teams to see how each ref is calling each game and adjust in turn.  Refs only call what the players give them a chance to call - it’s on the players ultimately.
• 2nd Line Wing:  Boychuk hasn’t really progressed at all in his game with Malkin and Neal.  Speed is still an asset, but his puck handling can be atrocious at times.  I’ve called for this 2 games in a row now, but maybe with the loss we will see Jeffrey enter the lineup again.  Jeffrey adds a defensive aspect that Boychuk doesn’t have.  If no one is going to add offense to that line, I at least want to see a defensive addition then.
• Goaltending:  Fleury faced another rough game stat wise but played a solid game overall.  He was left all alone on the first goal and did as much as can be expected.  The second goal was just an amazing bounce for the Devils as the puck hit the post and landed on Henrique’s stick.  Fleury would probably want the 3rd goal back though since he was just beaten on a clean shot.  Regardless, I’m sure Vokoun plays Sunday and people start goalie controversy crap over nothing again.  Let’s wait until Fleury actually costs the team a game before we attack him for once perhaps.

Pens Record: 8-4-0, 16 pts

Next Game:  2/10 vs NJ, 7:30pm

Bortuzzo is Free! Penguins Defeat Devils at Home, 5-1

Main Storylines:

• Marc-Andre Fleury gets the start coming off of Vokoun’s shutout against NYR.  Vokoun starts tomorrow in Washington
• Zach Boychuk makes his Penguins debut in the lineup today.  It’s two weeks early, but if Boychuk fits in, start paying attention to Jeffrey/Tangradi/Lovejoy/Bortuzzo because one of them will have to be moved/waived
• Bortuzzo stays in the lineup while Tangradi, Jeffrey, and Lovejoy are healthy scratches
• Chris Kunitz has been ill over the past few days but remains in the lineup

Result:

Pens 5  Devils 1

Goals:  Sutter (1) from Crosby, Malkin

            Kunitz (2) unassisted

            Letang (2) from Kunitz, Malkin

            Crosby (4) from Kunitz, Dupuis

            Bortuzzo (1) from Crosby, Dupuis

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442582

Stats:

• Sidney Crosby led the team with 5 shots.  Evgeni Malkin failed to register a shot on net.
• Crosby also had both penalties for the Penguins
• James Neal led the team with 4 hits
• The Pens dominated in faceoffs with Vitale (75%), Crosby (66.7%), Sutter (63.6%) and Malkin (54.5%) all winning a majority of draws
• Every player skated for at least 11 minutes and Paul Martin topped the group with *only* 24:50

The Good:

Bortuzzo is free!!!

• First Line:  Crosby was a stud, Kunitz was sick and still productive, but I’m not starting with either of them. 
• Pascal Dupuis had an absolutely fantastic, yet incredibly quiet, game.  He was the best backchecking forward on the team, strong on both PKs, and gave the defense plenty of help to spring Crosby and Kunitz.  For all the chances the first line had, credit Dupuis for making most of them possible behind the scenes
• On to Chris Kunitz who, despite playing through the flu, had a very strong forechecking game and showed better puck control and vision than he has all season.  He was the recipient of a gift from Anton Volchenkov on his goal and made the primary passes to Crosby and Letang on their goals.  Most importantly, he wasn’t a turnover machine and kept the puck moving forward.
• Now on to that Crosby guy.  Sid had a dismal first period, committing 3 turnovers and a penalty late in the period.  Once he was out of the box in the second period though, his game came to life through speed and forechecking.  He was chaotic around the net and ripped a wicked wrist shot past Brodeur’s glove in the 3rd.  Also, give him a ton of credit for the assist on Bortuzzo’s goal as he blatantly took the puck from Krys Barch to make it happen. 
• Robert Bortuzzo:  After clamoring through training camp and the first 6 games for Bortuzzo’s inclusion in the lineup, I finally get to list him in this section!  Bortuzzo played another solid game, showing no NHL jitters and sticking to safe, simple decisions.  He was responsible with the puck and was rewarded with his first NHL goal on a shot from the point that was deflected by a Devils’ defenseman.  He is everything you can ask for from a 3rd pair defenseman right now and even more!
• Puck Support:  For the second game in a row, the key to the Penguins success was strong puck support, especially in the defensive zone.  There were still turnovers, but not once was there a turnover where no Penguin was around to slide and cover for it.  The Penguins ability to recover from and cover up their mistakes hinges completely on puck support and they are doing a great job of it right now.
• Defense:  Give everyone on the defense credit.  Martin and Orpik played another strong game as the shutdown pair and I doubt even Bylsma in his wildest dreams thought they would be this successful.  Letang and Despres appear to have really learned each other’s game and are demonstrating plenty of skill and chemistry.  Even Bortuzzo and Engelland look plenty capable of moving the puck and protecting the zone.  There is a lot of solid, fundamentally-sound hockey being played by the defense right now.
• Marc-Andre Fleury:  He only had the chance to face 16 shots, but the only one Fleury didn’t stop was Andy Greene alone in front.  He made a couple very strong pad saves and kept the Penguins steady when the offense wasn’t working in the first period.  It was a pedestrian solid game for Fleury.  It’s also good to note that despite only facing 4 shots in the 2nd period, he still didn’t allow a weak goal from lack of action.  His showed 60 minutes of strong focus today.

The Bad:

The 3rd line is starting to improve

• Tyler Kennedy:  TK’s first period was horrendous, but he did improve his play to adequate as the game went on.  Between missing the net and turning the puck over multiple times at center ice, I was surprised his ice time wasn’t cut by Bylsma as the game went on.  TK’s play has declined since the opening weekend and I have a feeling that moving up to the 2nd, down to the 4th, and back to the 3rd line has not helped in the process.

The Ugly:

• Powerplay:  The only goal New Jersey scored was during a Penguins powerplay, of course.  The team is still having major issues with zone entry (it might be time to start dumping it in) and puck movement is still generally awful all around.  Malkin doesn’t belong on the point and while he’s strong defensively, he’s not strong enough to be the main “defenseman” with Letang hanging at the left boards.  The Pens are the first team this season to allow 2 shorthanded goals now.  It’s time to go to Martin-Letang or Despres-Letang on the top powerplay and move Kunitz to the #2 PP unit.  Kunitz in front does nothing when the puck doesn’t get there anyways.

+/- Assessment:

If you’re new to this – instead of going by typical NHL plus/minus, I’m going to go back and watch every goal to determine who actually helped or screwed up.  Game by game results are in the recap and the season results are linked on the right side and below.

Andy Greene? Shorthanded? What?

• 1st GF (Sutter): + for Despres (moves puck to Bortuzzo), Bortuzzo (clears D zone to Malkin), Malkin (cross ice pass to Sutter), Crosby (pulls Gionta away,swats puck), Sutter (chips puck, scores)
• 2nd GF (Kunitz) + for Kunitz (takes fanned pass, goal)
• 1st GA (Greene) – for Dupuis (failed entry at blue line), Crosby (turnover in neutral zone), Malkin (loses Greene)
• 3rd GF (Letang) + for Malkin (forecheck), Kunitz (forecheck, pass), Letang (patience, goal)
• 4th GF (Crosby) + for Bortuzzo (stands up NJ entry into zone), Dupuis (swats puck to Kunitz, pulls dman away), Kunitz (pass to Crosby), Crosby (goal)
• 5th GF (Bortuzzo) + for Crosby (steals puck, pass), Bortuzzo (goal)
• Season +/-: http://www.crosbyftw.com/p/plusminus-spreadsheet.html

Thoughts:

One game in, Boychuk was a solid pickup.

• Location of Turnovers:  Most of the Penguins turnovers were in the offensive zone or on the boards in the defensive zone.  While turnovers suck, they will always happen and those are the best areas possible to lose the puck if it’s going to happen.  In the Penguins’ losses, most of their turnovers occurred at the defensive blue line or in the netural zone.  Now that they are losing the puck around the perimeter, it’s much easier to shift back into a defensive stance after a turnover.  Smart decisions à easier team defense, even when mistakes happen.
• Skating to the Puck:  Another change for the Penguins has been their effort in skating towards passes and towards the puck exiting the defensive zone.  A big problem with neutral zone turnovers is that forwards get trapped heading the wrong way as the puck goes back to the defensive end.  The Pens are showing a renewed commitment to skating back to the puck as their defensemen try to exit the zone though.  This a) helps with puck support if a defenseman loses it, b) makes for easier outlet passes, and c) opens up other forwards.  The best demonstration of this was on Sutter’s goal.  Malkin is skating back towards the defensive zone to give an outlet to Bortuzzo and receive a pass.  Meanwhile, Sutter is on the opposite side moving to the offensive zone.  Malkin gets his pass and has a clear lane to throw the puck across to Sutter in full stride to create the rush.  That movement helps the defense and offense all at the same time.
• Zach Boychuk:  Boychuk had a solid debut with the Penguins, demonstrating good speed and the ability to create room and forecheck for Malkin and Neal.  If nothing else, he backs defenders off so Malkin and Neal can do their thing.  That’s something Tangradi wasn’t able to do at all.  It’ll be interesting to see what kind of chemistry Boychuk can develop with the 2nd line, but he has already outplayed Tangradi there and can give Jeffrey a run for his money.
• Future Roster Moves:  There are still 2ish weeks until Niskanen returns, but a roster move will be necessary when he does come back.  Start thinking, who gets removed from the roster (via trade, waivers, or getting sent down) and which defenseman sits?  My early answer is trade/waive Lovejoy, sit Engelland, keep Jeffrey and Tangradi as healthy scratches.  What would you do?

Thanks Stevie!! (@highheelshockey)

Pens Record: 5-3-0, 10 pts

Next Game:  2/3 @ Was, 12:30pm

Second Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Semifinals

Well, after going 2 for 8 in the first round, you can probably just guess the opposite of my picks and do quite well.  I was right with the Rangers in 7 and the Devils winning in the first round.  Despite my awful first round record, I shall continue on and try to predict the second round just in hopes that I can accidentally look smart to everyone!  Weird fact going into the second round: there is one of each seed, 1-8, left in the playoffs.  Neat.

*PS – Though I am posting these after the Conference Semis are already underway, I’m sticking with the picks I made before the first game started…which is also why I look even more stupid now as I picked the Preds in 5.

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  In the regular season, the Blues finished 21^st in scoring and the Kings finished 29^th.  In the playoffs, the Blues are currently 4^th and the Kings are 8^th.  Despite the difference in rankings, I am going to give the edge to the Kings on potential.  They added Jeff Carter late in the season and faced a tougher goalie in the first round.  If Carter can get on the scoreboard, the Kings will boast more scoring depth than the Blues.  Edge – Los Angeles 

Defense:  Both teams have strong defensive systems and great young defenders.  The Blues are led by youngsters Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk.  Meanwhile, the Kings have a strong mix of young stars like Drew Doughty and playoff veterans like Rob Scuderi.  The Blues finished 1^st in defense in the regular season and are currently 1^st in the playoffs.  The Kings finished 2^nd in the regular season and are currently tied for 1^st in the playoffs.  The Blues forwards generally show more defensive prowess though.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Brian Elliott has a 1.37 GAA and .949 Save % , while Jonathan Quick has a 1.59 GAA and .953 Save % in the playoffs.  Both goalies finished in the Top 5 for most stats in the regular season as well.  Quick is a Vezina candidate, and Elliott probably would have been if he had more games played.  The longer history of success for Quick is really the only difference maker in this matchup.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have great penalty kills due to their defensive prowess, but LA struggles on the PP while St. Louis was clicking at over 30% in the first round.  That difference could be huge in this series when goals are hard to come by.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock has a Stanley Cup ring.  Darryl Sutter has quite a few first round exits, making this abnormal territory for him.  Edge – St. Louis

Result:  Kings in 6.  I can’t pick against Jonathan Quick basically.  It’s that simple.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #4 Nashville Predators

Offense:  Nashville quietly had a Top 10 offense this season and is currently 5^th in the playoffs.  Phoenix’s offense struggled in the bottom half of the league all season, but looked quite capable against the Blackhawks in the 1^st round as they finished the round ranked 3^rd.  Both teams get by without “big name” scorers in their lineup.  The Preds benefit greatly from having more offensive help from their blue line though.  Edge - Nashville

Defense:  Both teams were in the top 10 in defense this season (Nashville 10^th, Phoenix 5^th).  Nashville tends to depend more on their big defensive guys in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter while Phoenix focuses more on a team defensive system.  Both teams also shut down high powered offenses in Detroit and Chicago respectively in the first round.  I can’t go against Shea Weber’s beard out of fear.  Edge - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekka Rinne vs. Mike Smith.  Both goalies are Top 10 in pretty much every stat, they had similar stats in the playoffs, and they both made arguments for a Vezina nomination (which Rinne received and Smith did not.)  Smith was the hotter goalie going into the playoffs while Rinne looked shaky at times, so that’s the kicker to me.  Edge - Phoenix

Special Teams:  The teams were close on the PK, with Nashville 8^th and Phoenix 10^th.  The big decisive factor is that Nashville was 1^st on the PP in the regular season while Phoenix was 29^th.  First round numbers don’t matter for that kind of a difference.  Edge - Nashville

Coaching:  Nashville’s Barry Trotz and Phoenix’s Dave Tippett are both amazing coaches when it comes to getting the most out of their teams through discipline and hard work.  Neither has been all that successful in the playoffs until this year though.  I believe Tippett is working with less talent and has taken his team just as far as Nashville, so I favor him ever so slightly in this matchup.  Edge - Phoenix

Result:  Preds in 5.  Nashville has already exorcized a demon in getting past Detroit in stunning fashion.  The Preds have built their team up specifically for this playoff run, and Phoenix just won’t have the depth to handle it.

#1 New York Rangers vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Both teams had very similar offensive performances in both the regular season and the playoffs so far.  The Rangers may have a stronger set of 4 lines that can put the puck in the net, but the biggest raw talent on either team belongs to Washington with Ovechkin.  Edge - Washington

Defense:  The Capitals have finally learned how to play playoff hockey with a defense-first system that the whole team has committed to, even Alexander Semin.  The Rangers have always played a very strong defensive system, with an emphasis on shot blocking and protecting Henrik Lundqvist.  The Rangers defense is strong through all 3 pairings, while the Caps don’t necessarily have a standout defensive defenseman right now.  Edge – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist earned nominations for the Vezina and Hart trophies this week for his fantastic regular season play.  Meanwhile, Braden Holtby, still wet behind the ears, has entered the playoff fray as a young unknown who has come out of nowhere to take the league by storm.  While hot goalies are great in the playoffs, they fizzle out eventually.  Edge – New York

Special Teams:  Neither team had a strong PP in the regular season, but the Rangers at least sent out the 5^th best PK unit in the league, led by their defense.  Meanwhile, the Caps have the 2^nd best PK in the playoffs, though it should be discounted based on the fact that their 1^st round opponent, Boston, has been awful on the powerplay in recent playoff history.  All in all, there’s no real winner in this matchup.  Edge - Even

Coaching:  Dale Hunter has had a ton of success in the OHL, limited success in his playoff runs as a player, and is coaching in the NHL for the first time.  John Tortorella has already won a Stanley Cup and knows how to press the buttons of his team quite well by now.  Experience is a big factor in the playoffs.  Edge – New York

Result:  Rangers in 6.  Defense wins championships, and while the Caps have shown a strong new commitment to defense, they don’t have the personnel to handle it quite like the Rangers do.  Defensive depth wins this low scoring series.

#5 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  The Flyers ranked 2^nd in offense in the regular season and had a monster 1^st round, crushing Pittsburgh with their offensive depth.  It doesn’t even matter what New Jersey can do (average offense if you are curious).  Edge - Philadelphia

Defense:  Philadelphia’s defense was nothing special in the first round.  Meanwhile New Jersey’s was a bit better, but not spectacular either.  There was a big difference in the regular season between these two however, as New Jersey had a top 10 defense and Philadelphia was in the bottom 10.   Edge – New Jersey

Goaltending:  In recent history, neither Bryzgalov nor Brodeur has looked sharp in the playoffs.  Beyond recent history, Brodeur has had just a little bit of playoff success (multiple Stanley Cups are impressive I guess).  Bryzgalov can’t be trusted as he didn’t look strong in the Pittsburgh series either.  Edge – New Jersey

Special Teams:  Philadelphia had a top 5 powerplay in the regular season and absolutely destroyed Pittsburgh (who had the 3^rd ranked PK in the regular season) in the 1^st round, scoring on over half of their chances.  New Jersey had the best PK in the regular season, but only killed at a 69% rate in the playoffs.  With PK’s suffering in the playoffs, Philadelphia’s powerplay gets a huge advantage.  Edge - Philadelphia

Coaching:  Peter Laviolette pretty much crushed Dan Bylsma in coaching strategy and adjustments in the first round.  He has gone deep in the playoffs before and has a Stanley Cup ring from his time with the Hurricanes.  Peter DeBoer is currently on his first ever playoff run in the NHL as a head coach, after coaching the team he just beat (Florida) to 3 playoff-less seasons.  Edge - Philadelphia

Result:  Devils in 7.  Despite Philadelphia having a majority of the advantages, which will win them some games, I would put my money on Brodeur making a strong push in what could possibly be his last year in the NHL.  Bryzgalov just isn’t trustworthy enough for me.

First Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Quarterfinals

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  There is no question on this one.  LA’s offense has been downright anemic all season and savior Jeff Carter is nursing an ankle injury to start the playoffs.  Vancouver, though without Daniel Sedin to start, still boasts impressive offensive depth.  Edge - Vancouver

Defense:  Both teams have a great amount of depth on defense and veterans that have been to the finals before.  I have a little more faith in the Canucks though because of their experience and more importantly, they have demonstrated the ability to perform at clutch times.  Edge - Vancouver

Goaltending:  Roberto Luongo will be the headcase story of the playoffs.  Jonathan Quick will be a Vezina nominee and might get a Hart nomination as well.  Easy.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have a great PK, but Vancouver gets help from their top 5 powerplay while Los Angeles continues with their anemic scoring.  Edge - Vancouver

Coaching:  Alain Vigenault is on a mission to get the Canucks one more win than last season to get them a Cup while Darryl Sutter is still trying to figure out which buttons to push at which times for LA.  Edge - Vancouver

Misc:  The Canucks enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NHL.  LA entered the last week with a chance to clinch the division but blew it against a division rival.  Edge - Vancouver

Result:  Vancouver in 7.  Despite almost everything going Vancouver’s way, I believe in Jonathan Quick this much that he can take this series to the brink.  Quick has put the Kings on his shoulders all season, but it’ll come down to the clutch goal they can’t produce as Vancouver wins out in the end.

 

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks

Offense:  Whether it’s a product of systems or talent levels, San Jose certainly has the better offense in this matchup and more pure offensive talent with guys like Marleau, Pavelski.  Edge – San Jose

Defense:  Ken Hitchock knows how to get a team to play strong on the defensive end and he has turned the Blues into a gritty, hard-check team that will work hard in their own end.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott combined to win the Jennings trophy for lowest GAA and have combined for 15 shutouts this year.  No one beats this combination.  Edge – St. Louis

Special Teams:  San Jose quietly managed to put together polar opposites of the 2^nd best PP with the 2^nd worst PK.  Meanwhile, the Blues were on the low end of the PP list but higher on the PK.  In the playoffs, I’m siding with defense.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock, the likely Jack Adams winner from the Blues, vs. Todd McLellan, who consistently underachieves with the Sharks.  Edge – St. Louis.

Misc:  St. Louis is lacking playoff experience through most of their roster aside from a few veterans here and there.  San Jose finally enters the playoffs as an underdog, though that is after being Cup favorites before the season started.  The lack of pressure may help San Jose.  Edge – San Jose

Result:  San Jose in 7.  The Blues keep their opponents to low scoring close games, which may work frequently during the season, but leaves a lot to chance and bounces in a 7 game series.  The Sharks are talented enough to capitalize on those opportunities.  Here’s my upset special for the first round.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks

Offense:  Kane, Sharp, maybe a healthy Toews, and Keith vs. Vrbata, Whitney, Doan, Yandle…yeah this isn’t a tough one in my opinion.  Advantage - Chicago

Defense:  For the lack of offensive depth the Coyotes may have, the make up for it through a systematic defensive style that Dave Tippett could probably get 3 year olds to master.  Chicago has a strong blueline, but they are more prone to break downs than Phoenix.  Advantage - Phoenix

Goaltending:  Mike Smith ended the season with a 3 game shutout streak in his last for.  Chicago keeps bouncing back between Crawford and Emery as neither has been all that dependable this season.  Advantage - Phoenix

Special Teams:  Both teams have low-end powerplays despite the offensive talent on the rosters.  Phoenix has a great PK with their goaltending and style, while Chicago fails on that stat as well.  Advantage - Phoenix

Coaching:  Dave Tippett has been a great coach for the Coyotes and has installed a system that keeps defense at the forefront.  Joe Quineville though, he’s been there, he’s won the Cup, he knows how to handle the next 2 months.  Advantage - Chicago

Misc:  Much of this series will come to experience.  Phoenix still does not have a lot of playoff experience, and while Smith has been a solid goalie, he is untested as well.  Chicago has been through this and they know what to do.  Advantage - Chicago

Result:  Chicago in 5.  Though defense wins championships, I don’t see Phoenix having an impenetrable defense for this Blackhawks team.  Both teams enter the playoffs hot, and ultimately, I pick Chicago based on their experience and pure skill up front.  Also, I just don’t believe in Mike Smith in the playoffs yet.

#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings

Offense:  Both teams finished in the top 10 in goals this year with Detroit 7^th and Nashville 8^th.  While Nashville has made some nice additions with Radulov and Fisher over the past 2 years, I still can’t get over the Red Wings’ pure skill.  Advantage - Detroit

Defense:  Both teams were close in goals allowed as well, with Detroit edging it out yet again.  The Wings defense has been there, but I do have some concern about their consistency.  I’m picking Weber, Suter, and Nashville’s young D to be very hungry for a win this series.  Advantage - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekke Rinne vs. Jimmy Howard is an all-star game matchup.  When healthy, Howard was playing as a top 3 goalie in the NHL this year.  Rinne had a “down” year in comparison to some of the Vezina candidate, but he’s still a top 5 goalie.  Advantage: Even

Special Teams:  Nashville had the top PP in the league (which I had not known and am now shocked by) and a top 10 PK.  Detroit was middle of the pack with both units.  Advantage - Nashville

Coaching:  Both of these coaches are great.  Mike Babcock has demonstrated it through the playoffs year after year and Barry Trotz somehow keeps Nashville playing above what their roster looks like every year.  They are both Jack Adams candidates on a yearly basis even if they don’t get the press.  In the playoffs though, you can’t bet against Babcock.  Advantage - Detroit

Misc:  Detroit faltered down the stretch and gave up their chance at home ice, where they play drastically better than on the road.  Nashville finally enters a series with the Wings as the favorites.  Advantage - Nashville

Result:  Detroit in 6.  I think this is the last big run for the aging Wings and they know it.  This will be a last gasp for Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk as age starts wearing on them with injuries.  The problem for Nashville is that a last gasp from Detroit is pretty much the full attack of a normal team.

Eastern Conference

#1 New York Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators

Offense:  The Rangers have gritty depth, but the Senators have a lot of speed up front and use it very well.  Norris candidate Erik Karlsson also adds quite a bit of offensive punch from the blueline.  Advantage - Ottawa

Defense:  The Rangers boast a very impressive 3 pairings at D, where all 3 are capable of playing against a 1^st line.  Ottawa…well they are still learning how to play defense in many ways as Karlsson even faltered with it down the stretch.  Advantage – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist.  Doesn’t matter who Ottawa has (Craig Anderson).  Advantage – New York

Special Teams:  Both teams have their offensive and defensive strengths pour into their special teams in an exact manner.  Ottawa is stronger on the PP but weak on the PK.  New York had a top 5 PK but had a very weak PP.  Ottawa’s PP isn’t so great that it is overbearing though.  Advantage – New York

Coaching:  The Senators’ Paul MacLean has done an amazing job as a first year coach.  Personally, I had this team nowhere close to the playoffs.  John Tortorella meanwhile is downright crazy, though he knows how to get results and he does have a Cup as well.  That last aspect is the biggest to me, MacLean is a rookie for the second time this season.  Advantage – New York

Misc:  Both teams slowed down as the season finished up, but the difference is New York could relax as the #1 seed while Ottawa almost slipped out of the playoffs.  Advantage – New York

Result:  New York in 7.  I think Ottawa is simply the type of team that will give the Rangers trouble due to their quickness.  But much like a gnat or fly, the Rangers will swat at it in annoyance for a little before finally landing a killer blow.  The Rangers finish it off in the end.

#2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Boston had the #2 offense in the league, but Washington had a cold Ovechkin and an injured Backstrom to deal with for much of the year.  Despite Boston’s depth, Washington has more pure firepower when healthy and focused in my opinion.  Advantage - Washington

Defense:  Starting with Zdeno Chara (not a bad start, right?), Boston has a sizeable defense that can hold opponents to the outside and keep them out of the crease.  Washington’s defense has much less experience and doesn’t necessarily have the size to match up well here.  Advantage - Boston

Goaltending:  Washington is having all kinds of injury issues at goalie, as Braden Holtby steps to the forefront with Vokoun and Neuvirth nursing injuries.  Boston has Tim Thomas.  Yeah…  Advantage - Boston

Special Teams:  Both teams have middling powerplays but Boston comes out on top on the penalty kill as long as Chara is out there to dictate the pace of the other team’s powerplay.  Advantage - Boston

Coaching:  The Caps haven’t completely bought into Dale Hunter’s style it seems, and I’m not sure Hunter has either.  Claude Julien won the Cup last year, so I think he’s just a little more confident heading into this series.  Advantage - Boston

Misc:  There will be much talk about Tim Thomas being uncomfortable in the DC area but I can’t see him caring very much.  Stanley Cup Winners don’t go very far the next year historically, but Washington has been lost all season and is lucky to be here right now.  Advantage - Boston

Result:  Boston in 5.  The goaltending matchup is too much to overcome for Washington and Chara should be able to handle the Caps top line with his 90 foot wingspan.

#3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  Florida turned out to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but lucked into the #3 seed by playing in a flat out awful division.  Meanwhile, the Devils got big bounce back years from Kovalchuk and Parise to give Brodeur some support for once.  Advantage – New Jersey

Defense:  The Panthers are one of the rare teams that entered the playoffs allowing more goals than they scored.  New Jersey isn’t the trapping team of the previous decade, but they still know how to play good enough defense over there.  Advantage – New Jersey

Goaltending:  Martin Brodeur may be old, but he can still play the game.  Florida will be relying on a possible mix of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen.  My money is not two goalies that would probably be backups around half the league right now.  Advantage – New Jersey

Special Teams:  One thing the Panthers did do well with this season was their powerplay, which scored a majority of their timely goals this season.  However, they counteracted it with one of the worst PKs in the game.  New Jersey on the other hand has the best PK, almost stopping teams at a 90% rate and an average PP.  Advantage – New Jersey

Coaching:  Kevin Dineen has done a wonderful job for Florida in helping them win their division and make the playoffs for the first time in a decade.  Meanwhile, NJ’s coach, Peter DeBoer, was the Panthers previous coach.  Think there is a revenge factor there?  Advantage – New Jersey

Misc:  Brodeur knows this might be his last run and he’ll leave it all out on the ice in this series.  Florida seems to be entering a little wide-eyed and surprised to be here.  Advantage – New Jersey

Result:  New Jersey in 4.  If you’re surprised by that after my analysis, I’m not sure how you read this far down.

Last, but certainly not least:

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers

Offense:  Two of the top 3 offenses in the league this year, this is just a matchup of offensive juggernauts.  The amount of skill is unreal on both sides between Malkin, Giroux, Crosby, Hartnell (relax, it has to be said).  Both teams have 3^rd and 4^th lines that can score as well.  It’s impossible to bet against Crosby, Malkin, Staal when healthy though.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Defense:  Both defenses have been rather inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes looking unbeatable and sometimes looking like they don’t belong in the NHL.  The Pens seem to have some trouble clearing out the crease in front of Fleury while the Flyers have no problem putting the body on people.  Advantage - Philadelphia

Goaltending:  In the regular season, Fleury demonstrated Vezina potential and Bryzgalov went on a crazy hot streak as the playoff race came to a head.  In the playoffs, Fleury has been there; Bryzgalov has been there and looked awful.  Advantage - Penguins

Special Teams:  Both teams had the exact same powerplay success rate, 19.7%.  The penalty kills differ vastly though as the Pens finished 3^rd in the NHL and the Flyers were in the middle of the pack.  Advantage – Pittsburgh, but this largely depends on the goaltending for the PK.

Coaching:  Dan Bylsma has faced some adversity in the playoffs since the last time he dealt with the Flyers in the postseason.  He has had to learn a lot about his team through this year and seems to have a decent handle on them.  Laviolette is masterful in motivating his team.  His timeout usage seems to always propel them to a win and he knows what buttons to push.  Pens fans won’t like this.  Advantage - Even

Misc:  The Flyers had a huge chip on their shoulder coming into this series, simply hating and wanting to beat the Pens for the first time in the playoffs as the core of these rosters are built.  One of the worst things they could have done was put a chip on the shoulder of the Pens with that disaster brawl at the end of the game a week and a half ago.  Grittiness may be a disadvantage depending on the refs, who will surely be on alert.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Result:  Pittsburgh in 6.  The Flyers are certainly a team that scares me, but I believe the refs will call it tight early and that will help the Pens keep focus while Philly tries to distract them.  Also, Fleury trumps Bryzgalov in my head every way I play it out.  My unsung hero for this series:  Craig Adams will be huge with a key goal or 2; he’ll be big on the PK, and some big hits will make him a key factor in this series.