Saturday, June 30, 2012

News and Notes on Free Agency Eve


Niskanen Re-Signs
The Pens now have 6 defensemen on the NHL roster as they re-signed Matt Niskanen to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $2.3 million each year.  He will actually make $2.1 million next year and $2.5 million the following year, a smart move with a potential lockout looming as ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted.  Niskanen went from one of the most hated to one of the most loved Penguins in the span of a year as he adjusted to and thrived in Bylsma’s quick moving system.
Does Staal score this goal without Niski?  No he doesn't.

Analysis:  My guess was 2 years, $4.5 million total so I think it’s a solid deal!  It falls right in line with a contract I had mentioned on Friday’s podcast when Columbus defenseman Nikita Nikitin signed a 2 year, $4.3 million deal.  I imagine Niskanen wanted a longer deal and Shero probably would have liked a 1 year deal, so they settled on two.  When this deal expires, many of the Pens young defensemen will be ready for the NHL, so Niskanen will certainly have to play well in the second year of this deal to stay in Pittsburgh.


Thiessen Re-Signs
After not being tendered a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, Brad Thiessen still re-signed with the Penguins for 1 year on a two-way contract that will pay him $525,000 at the NHL level.  Thiessen saw limited NHL time last year while Brent Johnson was struggling/injured.  He will likely start for the Baby Pens, sitting 3rd on the depth chart behind Fleury and Vokoun.
Thiessen will face tougher opponents in the AHL
than he did in the NHL last year.

Analysis:  I am quite surprised Thiessen is back after the Pens signed Vokoun and acquired 3 goalies last weekend (2 drafted, 1 via trade with Phoenix).  But at the NHL minimum, he does bring a plethora of AHL experience and success, along with some NHL experience if Fleury or Vokoun get hurt.  This will probably be his last year with the franchise I would think.


Parise Watch
With less than 24 hours to go until Free Agency opens up, Parise watch is in full swing.  He will be with his agent in Ontario tomorrow basically fielding offers/visits/calls/singing telegrams (call me maybe?).  Rob Rossi, Josh Yohe, and some others have reported they expect the Pens to offer a deal around $75-$80 million over 10 years.  It is not expected to be front-loaded (Shero hates giving out front-loaded deals, Crosby is truly the exception).  Here’s my take on the front-runners for Parise:
At least one jersey won't change for Parise.

Minnesota – Parise is originally from Minneapolis and Minnesota is looking to make a big splash by luring him back home.  They will certainly offer a lot of money, I would guess around $10 million per year, and likely a similar length to the Pens deal if that’s what Parise wants.  They may be the worst of the teams with a shot to get him, but don’t discount the fact that Minnesota was in first place in the West for a little bit last year.  They aren’t as bad as people think.
Strengths: Hometown, Money


Detroit – The Wings have a plethora of cap space and will look to sign both Parise and Suter in one swift move.  There had been rumors that the 2 players were interested in going to the same place, so keep that in mind.  I’m guessing Detroit will offer the longest term in the same way they have given Zetterberg and Datsyuk long deals.  The Wings have the potential of offering the most money, years, and a chance to play with a winner.  Don’t forget, as Pens fans bank on Parise wanting to play with Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk is kinda a decent and well-respected player too…
Strengths: Money, Winner, Datsyuk?


New Jersey – New Jersey has put themselves in quite the pickle with money.  News came out earlier this week that they could not commit money to Martin Brodeur yet, so Brodeur hired agent Pat Brisson (Crosby’s agent) and will test out the free agent market tomorrow.  The wording of this was very telling, “commit”.  My hypothesis is they cannot commit the money because they want a final answer from Parise first, only after that can they commit money to Brodeur (if he even waits for them).  Parise has played for the Devils his entire career and will certainly be drawn to return based on the Cup Final run that ended just weeks ago.  He knows what he is getting into with New Jersey, and to some players, that means a lot.
Strengths: “Home”/Familiarity, Winner


Pittsburgh – The Pens are banking heavily on the “Crosby effect” to lure Parise in.  Their offer will be for a long term, though it will likely be one of the lowest offers Parise receives and it will not be front loaded.  Much of the fanfare around Parise coming to Pittsburgh surrounds the idea that he would want to play with Sidney Crosby, would take less money to do so, and would come here to try and build a long-lasting dynasty.  Fans want winners, owners want winners, but we don’t quite know what every player wants.  Also, don’t expect Shero to offer anything that could possibly jeopardize Malkin’s long term contract coming after next year (10 yrs/80 mil does not fyi).
Strengths: Winner, Crosby


Rest of the League – Undoubtedly there will be at least 10 more offers in addition to the ones I have listed above.  Free Agency is pure insanity, so who knows what team comes out of left field with a big offer that might draw Parise in.  The Rangers?  The Kings?  The Flyers?  Who wouldn’t want Zach Parise?  So while those 4 may be the front runners, anything could happen.


Final Thoughts: Years and a front-loaded deal could be the tie-breakers when it comes to the Parise sweepstakes.  I would not be shocked if this goes beyond July 1st as he considers a dozen offers and plays teams against each other in a bidding war.  Unfortunately, the Pens cannot keep up in a bidding war, or even in the original bids.  While Pens fans want to say Parise should come to Pittsburgh if he wants to play for a winner, the other 29 teams are trying to build a winner too, and New Jersey (and many others) came closer to it than the Pens have in the past 3 years.  To be honest, I do not foresee Parise taking less money to play in Pittsburgh.  I’ll make my final prediction tomorrow, but unless something drastically changes in the next 19ish hours, it won’t be Pittsburgh.

UPDATED: KDKA is reporting that Parise's top 2 choices are Minnesota and Pittsburgh at this point.  While I find this hard to believe since free agency doesn't begin for another 17 hours and Parise has no clue what he will be offered by other teams, if that's the case, my prediction is Minnesota.  Again though, I find this very hard to believe.



Other Free Agents
Ryan Suter – Suter will be hanging out at his farm in Wisconsin tomorrow and taking phone calls throughout the day.  Pittsburgh will be in the mix, though they will surely be beat in terms of money.  Detroit is the heavy favorite according to many, and Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Anaheim and Edmonton are expected to also make offers (along with others).  Nashville isn’t quite out of the running yet, though it looks unlikely that Suter will return.  Suter places a high value on comfort and lifestyle for his family, so money may not be the biggest factor in this decision.  One thing that may hurt Pittsburgh: the treatment of Paul Martin.  If Suter does not live up to his contract, I’m not sure he wants to risk putting his family through what Martin has dealt with in Pittsburgh.
Shero has a thing for acquiring former Predators.
(O'Reilly and Sullivan)

Jason Garrison – The hopefully not one hit wonder defenseman for the Panthers is still in negotiations with the team, though they do not look very fruitful as he is due a major raise from his $700k salary.  There is a slight chance that the Panthers may trade his rights late and Vancouver is inquiring about it after missing out on Justin Schultz (agreed to terms with Edmonton).  Is a Luongo trade in the mix with this one in the next 18 hours?

PA Parenteau – The pass happy Isles forward is certain to test free agent waters tomorrow, though he will continue talking to the Isles after the clock hits noon.  It’s rumored that the Avs and Sens will be in hard on him, and the Avs have a lot of cap space to overpay offer him.  I would expect every team that loses the Parise sweepstakes to give him a call as well, further driving up his price.  It’s a good year to be Parenteau.

Shane Doan – Much like Parenteau, every team that loses on Parise will quickly turn to Doan.  There have even been rumors that Jonathan Toews was trying to recruit him personally for the Blackhawks.  Doan has expressed a preference for staying in Phoenix, but uncertainty around the team will likely lead to him listening to offers on Sunday.  Look for Chicago, Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Phoenix to lead the rush to Doan pending the Parise situation.


I’ll leave it at that for now; keep up with the rest on Twitter!  Thanks for reading!

Friday, June 29, 2012

Offseason '12: Podcast #2

Welcome back for Offseason Podcast #2.  In today's podcast, Adam (@PolishHMR) and I discuss the NHL signings over the past two days (Wideman?!?) and discuss members of the Pittsburgh media (preview: we love Dave Molinari and we hate Tim Benz).  We also talk about how the NHLPA may view the Crosby signing. Enjoy, and as always, thanks for listening!!




Any feedback you guys have would be wonderful. Also, let us know if we should post these to iTunes or if this format works.

Finally, we would love it if you guys provided topics for us to cover as we go through the offseason! We can pretty much research and discuss anything NHL related, so if you have questions - post them!

Thursday, June 28, 2012

A Quick Look at the Crosby Extension

Though CBA rules dictate the extension cannot be signed until Sunday, the Pens and Crosby have agreed to the terms of a 12 year, $104.4 million extension. The deal keeps his cap hit at $8.7 million. Let’s take a look at it.

BEST DEAL EVER!!!! I CAN RE-UP THIS SITE FOR 12 YEARS!!!!

No seriously, let’s take a look at it.


Pros:
- The obvious one, length: Sidney Crosby will be a Penguin for the rest of his career.  Arguably the best player in hockey, the Pens will never have to worry about his contract situation again.  He’s the face of the franchise and the face of the NHL.  It is just as valuable on the business side for the Pens as it is on the ice.

- The price: It will be front-loaded per TSN’s Bob McKenzie, so Sid will make over $10 mil for the first few years it appears.  Regardless, the cap hit is $8.7 mil over the life of the contract.  That is simply ridiculous.  Crosby could have probably made $14 mil on the open market and is taking $8.7 again.  Consider, with inflation and other economic factors, the $8.7 mil Sid makes on this extension is actually worth less than from his current contract.  Unreal.

- The timing: There’s no question that this deal was released 3 days before Free Agency to make a statement.  Parise, Suter, whoever else – Sid is here to stay for the long haul and he is taking less money so you can join and win a Cup with him.  Take note, free agents.

- The message: Captain's send messages on and off the ice, right?  This one basically says, play in Pittsburgh if you want to focus on winning a Cup, not maxing out your salary.  As a fan, that's exactly the message you want to see from your franchise.


Cons:
- Cap on contracts: The other message this contract sends is that players will not be paid crazy amounts on this team.  Parise probably warrants $9 mil or so on the open market.  Guess what, he’s not getting it here and he knows it.  The Pittsburgh fan response is, oh he’ll come here to play with Sid and win a cup.  It doesn’t work like that; it all depends on what Parise wants and cares about, and what the other offers are.

- Injury issues: Let’s be serious, there has to be some worry about how Crosby gets through the next 12 years of his career or even if he does.  It’s likely the Pens will have an insurance policy on this contract for the pure money/business side of it.  Also, if Sid does go down, his cap space can be relieved via the long term injured reserve if necessary.  It is definitely a risk, but it is a business risk for the owners, not really one for the franchise on the ice.  If he gets hurt, he will be replaced.


Final Thoughts:
- Ovechkin’s cap hit is $9.538 million on a 13 year contract, the highest in the NHL.  No one can possibly do anything but praise Shero and Sid for this contract in terms of price.

- This contract BARELY affects Malkin’s future in Pittsburgh or his contract, so they shouldn’t even be compared.  Malkin likely takes the same money, but a new CBA will determine absolutely everything for his contract.  Don’t even think about it today.  Malkin will have his day in a year.

- The NHL owners are looking to limit contracts to around 6 years if possible in this round of CBA negotiations. The Pens may very well have snuck in this 12 yr extension at the perfect time.  Soon, the CBA will likely limit these “retirement” contracts.  That is something to keep in mind for next year’s guys (Letang, Malkin).

- While this extension helps paint the picture for free agents like Parise to come to Pittsburgh, it hardly guarantees it.  There is still every chance that the Pens strike out in free agency because July 1st is one of the most unpredictable days of the year every season.  So while a message has been sent, don't read into it too much.  We don't know how the message is received or if it matters.

- Seriously, how can anyone be upset about this contract?

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Create Your Ideal 2012 Pens Roster


With free agency just 4 days away, everyone has their opinion on who the Pens should sign (Most answered: Parise), re-sign (Sullivan), or trade (Martin).  While no one has a clue what’s going to happen, we all love playing internet GM anyways and filling in the holes

Today, twitter friend Nick Case (@Nick422) suggested his ideal roster (though it was over the salary cap):

Parise – Crosby – Doan
Neal – Malkin – Kunitz
Cooke – Sutter – Dupuis
Asham – Vitale – Tootoo
Tangradi – Adams

Letang – Orpik
Allen – Martin
Niskanen – Engelland
Lovejoy

Fleury
Vokoun

The Cap was announced at $70.2 million today.  Here’s your task internet GMs, build your ideal team (you can’t trade Martin).  How does it shape up?

For help, here’s the Pens roster and salaries on capgeek and here’s a list of free agents (you can look at RFAs there as well).  Estimate your free agent signings as best as possible.

Here’s what I would do:

Kunitz (3.725) - Crosby (8.7) – Parise (7)
Dupuis (1.5) - Malkin (8.7) – Neal (5)
Cooke (1.8) - Sutter (2.067) – Kennedy (2)
Jeffrey (.575) - Vitale (.55) – Adams (.675)
Tangradi (.840) – Kassian (.525)

Letang (3.5) – Allen (4)
Niskanen (2) - Orpik (3.75)
Martin (5) – Engelland (.567)
Lovejoy (.525)

Fleury (5)
Vokoun (2)

Total: $70.2 million

You’d be surprised how quickly the Pens get up to that $70.2 million mark as you do this.  Ideally I wanted to sign Peter Mueller and throw him on the 2nd line with Malkin, but I can’t fit him under the cap.

With this roster, I would try to trade a D (Martin or Lovejoy) to free up money or at least a roster spot to call up Despres.  The deals in my head are: Zach Parise for 7 mil, 6 years.  Matt Kassian for 525k (league minimum), 2 yrs.  Bryan Allen for 4 mil, 3 yrs.  All paid lower than market value, so here’s hoping they want to win a cup!  Parise with the Crosby connection, Kassian just to be on a winner, Allen to get a cup as he gets older.

So either hit me up on twitter (@HockeyMeesh) or post in the comments below.  What would you do??

This may be discussed on the Podcast coming out Friday morning, which will also include rating the PGH media and a preview of free agency and UFA destinations.  As always, thanks for reading!!

Monday, June 25, 2012

Offseason '12: Podcast #1

Discussing the Staal and Michalek trades, Parise and Suter possibilities, and other free agents as we head to July 1st.




Enjoy and critique!

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Staal Saga Ends, Shero Makes Waves at 2012 Draft


Friday started with Pens fans still reeling from the Staal contract rejection news.  Would he be traded?  Would he be signed?  What could the Pens even get for him?  When would all of it happen?  How was his wedding going?
Oh the NHL Draft...more drama than a family  reunion.
Wait a second...

Well, the answers came flying in quickly on the first day of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, during his wedding.  The draft was simple and ordinary through the first seven picks as only small side deals were made, none involving 1st rounders.  But then came the Carolina Hurricanes with the 8th pick, quickly followed by the flashing sign of “Trade Alert” on the screen behind Gary Bettman.  The crowd oooed and awwwed before even hearing the trade, and then a bombshell came down.

Carolina receives: Jordan Staal
Pittsburgh receives: The #8 pick overall, Brandon Sutter, and Brian Dumoulin

Within 5 days, the Staal saga turned from far-fetched rumor, to a contract offer, to a contract rejection, to a statement he didn’t want to negotiate right now, to a plane ticket out to Carolina.  Goodbye Jordan, thanks for the memories – especially in 2009, and I hope it didn't ruin your wedding (since he found out during the reception while with half the Pens).
I'll miss your PK, your defensive abilities, your shot...
but most of all, I'll miss your "WOOOOO!!"

The Pens used the #8 pick to draft defenseman Derrick Pouliot (weird, another defenseman) and continued on their regular path after shocking the crowd.  At #22 the Pens took, oh you guessed it, another defenseman in Olli Maatta, and that was it for their draft.

But Ray Shero was not done making waves, rumors started flying again as the draft neared an end.  Shero was getting awfully friendly with the Coyotes table.  The Coyotes were talking about moving Keith Yandle, could this be the move?  No, it wouldn’t be.  Instead, Shero threw out an aftershock by completing the following deal.

Phoenix receives: Zbynek Michalek
Pittsburgh receives: Harrison Ruopp, Marc Cheverie, and a 3rd round pick (81st overall)

Who?

Saturday morning and afternoon went quietly, and now we have a new team heading into the week before free agency starts on July 1st.

One step at a time though, how do we feel about how Day 1 went?  Here are my thoughts:
A moment that Jordan will never have to worry about again.
Also, Marc Staal's new re-occuring nightmare.

Staal Trade:
I flat out love this deal.  Ray Shero had no business getting a decent return on Jordan Staal after the past week’s events as I wrote on Thursday.  Carolina had all of the leverage, Jordan Staal had a lot of leverage, and Ray Shero had very little.  To that, Shero said “eff this” and did everything his way, somehow still getting a great return for Staal.

Logically, Staal said he only wanted to extend with Carolina, and he didn’t want to negotiate with Pittsburgh right now.  Carolina could have waited as long as they wanted to for this trade.  They could have waited a year and signed Staal as a UFA – his intentions were clear.  But somehow, Shero managed to pick up three assets for a player who was already leaving.  Good for you Ray Shero.

I am a big Brandon Sutter fan.  This started in his first full season, largely because the girl I was dating then was a Hurricanes fan so I watched them a lot, but I’ve been a huge fan of him since then.  He is a very smart two-way center.  Sutter is great positionally, shows a high amount of discipline, and still has some offensive touch.  In my head, he has always been Jordan Staal with less shot power and less size (though 6’3, Sutter only weighs 180ish).  He’s not a gritty guy, but he knows where to be at all times and he will intercept a lot of passes and create turnovers.  He’s a perfect true 3rd line center for the Penguins, though he could generally be a 2nd line center on many teams.
Has Staal ever done this?  No, no he hasn't.  Point Sutter.

Brian Dumoulin fits the mold of a Ray Shero defenseman lately.  He is a bigger guy at 6’3-6’4, but a very fluid skater and offensively minded.  He is a two time NCAA champion with Boston College and should slide right into WBS at the AHL level this year.

The first round pick was used to take Derrick Pouliot.  Pouliot is a smaller defenseman, only 6’0, but of course is offensively skilled.  He is a solid puck mover and can QB the powerplay in the future perhaps.  It is likely he won’t turn pro for another year though and he has some positioning issues.

In the end, after the interviews, we now know that Staal eventually wanted to play with his brother and the 10 year deal scared him away.  He fully intended to test free agency at this point and wanted to play with Eric eventually. Shero did the best he could with what he had.

Trade WinnerCarolina.  Let’s be honest, Staal is the best player in this deal and Carolina is immediately better.  Pittsburgh is immediately worse for this deal.  Carolina wins the trade.
Trade Winner under the circumstances: Even.  The Pens simply could not have done any better than they did here.
And then there were two...

1st Round Pick:
With their original pick in the 1st round, the Pens selected Olli Maatta at #22 overall (Insert joke about player with aa in his name being a Penguins roster requirement).  Maatta is considered a skilled two way defenseman that is very reliable in his own end first.  He can add some offensive prowess, but his strengths are in the defensive zone.  One thing to note about him – he has spent some time playing with Pens prospect Scott Harrington as well.  Maatta was expected to go higher and this was a great value (and in my opinion, need) pick for Shero.

Michalek Trade
As of right now, I do not like this trade but that depends on what it turns into.  This was clearly a salary dump.  Michalek wasn’t incredibly comfortable in Pittsburgh after this year, Phoenix missed him, and it all worked out to a trade where the Pens picked up no NHL salary in return.

Michalek was the Penguins only true defensive defenseman who was a minutes-eater.  Orpik is not a shutdown defenseman necessarily and is on the decline.  For this reason, I am slightly concerned about trading him away without knowing what we will have in the future to replace him.  He got a bad reputation in Pittsburgh as he was often-injured and struggled at times, but he was also a key reason that the Pens survived the Crosby and Malkin injuries a year ago.  I certainly did not want to see Michalek go.
Thanks for taking the abuse, Z.

Ruopp is a youngster at the age of 19 who still has improvements to make if he wants to be an NHLer.  He is a very tough defenseman, both in terms of hitting and fighting, with pretty much no offensive upside.  I don’t expect much of him, especially given the Pens depth with young defensemen.

Marc Cheverie is a goalie that was drafted by Florida in the 7th round in 2006.  He is currently in the ECHL and grew up in Cole Harbour with Sidney Crosby.  He adds depth for WBS and Wheeling, but that’s all that needs to be said about him.

The 3rd round pick was used to take Oscar Sundqvist from Sweden.  He will likely spend another year in Sweden and fill out more before coming to the US.  He’s 6’3 and has an aggressive game, but is too far from the NHL to predict well or scout out for me.

Winner: Phoenix.  They gained a strong defensive defenseman and gave up a lot of nothing.  The Pens may have wanted to dump salary, but there is no question the Coyotes won the deal, especially without knowing what happens with extra room under the salary cap.

So that was it for transactions and the 1st round pick (I won’t go through all of the picks because frankly, there are better sites for you to read about that on).
The feeling you get when you realize Martin still makes $5 mil
and Staal and Michalek are gone.

How did the Pens fare? Plain and simple, this team is worse than it was going into Friday. The current day roster gave up Jordan Staal and Zbynek Michalek for a return of Brandon Sutter. That is something everyone needs to remember and understand before the free agency frenzy begins. This team is absolutely worse than what it was.

With that being said, now the rumors have begun.  Shero appears to be after both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise.  Parise has a link to Crosby.  Suter has a link to Parise.  The Pens will likely make a hard push on July 1st for both.  I, along with all of you, hope that it works out.  I hope we get Suter more than Parise because defense is a much bigger issue than scoring on this team.  Parise may be flashy, but the biggest weakness is the defense – Suter is far more valuable to this roster.

But, if the Pens get left in the dust on Suter AND Parise, what happens?  And don’t just argue this by telling me Shero will get it done; actually take the time to think about it.  The free agent market is awful this summer.  Here is a list of your top free agents.  After Parise and Suter, the only guys I would like on that list are P.A. Parenteau, Bryan Allen, Jason Garrison, and that’s it.  Don't forget 29 other GMs are in on this too.
With Craig Adams, Sutter, and Parise, the Pens may
finally surpass most teams in literacy.

If Shero finds a good use for the cap room he just created, then the Pens will ultimately look back at the 2012 Draft as a win.  But it’s not a win until that has happened, so stay tuned for a wild July 1st, and hope to everything you believe in that the Pens get who they want.  Because if not...

Friday, June 22, 2012

The Jordan Staal Saga


For anyone who cares about where Jordan Staal will call home in the future, this week has been a crazy one.  FYI – that group includes Pens fans, NHL media, some NHL fans, and oh yeah, his fiancĂ© that he will marry today.
Sorry puck bunnies, he's off the market.
Sorry Pens fans, he might be on the market.

It all began on this past Monday, when the Trib’s Rob Rossi reported that he had heard Carolina made a rough offer of Brandon Sutter, Justin Faulk, and the 8th overall pick for Jordan Staal. Fan reaction went crazy, which was rather hilarious to watch. Canes fans felt they were giving up too much. Pens fans felt it wasn’t enough. Regardless, the questions about Staal’s future went into overdrive. (Personally, I’d take that deal in a heartbeat.)

There had been several rumors and touchy-feely stories suggesting that Jordan would like to play in Carolina with his brother Eric and that Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford was looking for a player of Jordan’s talents (without naming him, to avoid tampering), but nothing was concrete about anyone’s intentions until Rossi came out with that gem.
Maybe Jordan can teach Eric about positioning.

Less than 48 hours later, Dave Molinari of the PG began tweeting out a different story.  It was one that included a talk with Pens GM Ray Shero.  Amongst the topics: Staal hadn’t told the Pens he wanted to leave, Shero was not negotiating trades even though teams were interested, and Shero wanted to sign Staal (not trade him).  The Trib joined in with the Shero talk and all of the news outlets finally reported that Shero intends to sign Staal and that the masses could calm down now.

The masses did calm down, and Pittsburgh began to prepare for the draft before abruptly being shocked yet again within 48 hours.  TSN’s Bob McKenzie, the worldwide leader in hockey transactions as far as I’m concerned, tweeted out that Staal turned down a 10 year (rumored to be $60 million) deal and told the Penguins he did not want to negotiate now.  His agent would not say more than he did not want to negotiate a contract extension at this time, leaving the NHL masses to start speculating where he wants to go again. 

As of right now, we are left with rumors that Jordan is open to negotiating with Carolina if a trade can be made...but no word on anything else, including the Penguins.

So Jordan, why do you not want to negotiate a contract right now?  Is it because you are a Top 2 center stuck in a 3rd center’s role?  Maybe you want to go play with Eric?  Perhaps you just want to wait and see what your options are?  Maybe it’s even because you’re getting married in a matter of hours?!?  (I don’t think it’s the latter one, if that was the case there wouldn’t have been a rejection leaked, just no word at all).
Top Pens scorer of the playoffs, doesn't want to stay?

Everything from here on is just my speculation and thoughts:

First off, this news does nothing but hurt Shero’s poker hand a little bit.  Staal’s trade value drops immediately if he won’t negotiate a deal before becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Now there are many paths this could take:
1) Shero feels the need to trade Staal now because he is getting the best offers he thinks he may get.  Staal is traded this offseason, life goes on.

2) The Pens continue to negotiate with Staal later this summer and sign him before the season starts.

3) The Pens decide to keep him for his value on the ice and make one last strong push for a Cup with their 3 center system.  Staal either:
a) re-signs next June before becoming a UFA,
b) has his rights traded for a mid to late round draft pick before July 1st, or
c) walks for nothing on July 1st.

4) The Pens keep him but decide to trade him at the deadline due to his performance, their performance, or the idea of getting a return on him.  His value will be diminished greatly unless traded to a contender who can sign him long term.

5) Wanting to maximize trade value, the Pens trade Staal this summer with the intentions of trying to bring him back as a UFA next summer.  It is rare, but this move has happened before (more likely for veterans at the trade deadline). 


If I was betting on this, I would certainly favor either 1) or 2) and I would have to be leaning 1) pretty heavily.  Shero has a team to assemble for next year, a captain to re-sign to a long term extension, and a new CBA and potential salary cap to worry about.  He is not going to let Staal sit in the driver’s seat.  The last time he let a player into the driver’s seat, Marian Hossa turned down a long term deal to go to Detroit.  So what do I think Shero will do?  I think he will do what is best for his franchise, which likely amounts to trading Staal this summer rather than risk no return on a very valuable asset.

For those of you that thought Sutter, Faulk, and 1st rounder weren’t enough for Staal? – get ready for a lower return.  The Pens are destined to lose any possible deal on the sheer fact that Staal will be the best player involved.  Let’s just hope Shero can get a return that helps us win another Cup.

And FYI – I want Staal to stay, I’m a big fan of keeping him around.  I just don’t see that being a likely path unless he decides he’s willing to negotiate a long term deal soon.

EDIT - another interesting note, per Dejan Kovacevic of the Trib...the Pens leaked the news to the media, not Staal's camp.  That's a very interesting move for a team that just hurt their own trade value if that's the case.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Pens Trade For and Sign Tomas Vokoun


I had fully intended on taking a break from blogging until the Stanley Cup Finals were over, as I have kept busy by writing about the Kings on The Hockey Writers (http://thehockeywriters.com/author/rshanmugam/), but Ray Shero waits for no one.  He couldn’t even wait until I did my player by player season in review post before the draft, the inconsiderate jerk!

As you should know by now, the Penguins traded away their 7th round pick in 2012 to the Washington Capitals for the rights to pending unrestricted free agent goalie Tomas Vokoun.  Vokoun was given permission by the Capitals early last week to seek a potential team for next year.  He had a no trade clause and had no intention of staying in Washington, so the team decided this would be the best way to receive some compensation for him.
"The playoffs aren't over yet?  I do what I want."

Apparently after talking to Ray Shero, the two found a match for multiple years.  Vokoun waived his NTC and shortly after the deal, the Penguins announced that Vokoun had signed a 2 year deal, worth $2 million each year.  Here are a few of the factors that went into this deal:
- Shero has worked with Vokoun before, back when they were both in Nashville
- Vokoun has the same agent as Fleury (Allan Walsh), so there is a healthy dynamic in place potentially
- The goalie market this year is weak in terms of truly tested experience
- There is a strong belief that Fleury played too many games down the stretch last year, which may have factored into a poor playoff performance
- Neither Brent Johnson, nor Brad Thiessen, looked capable enough last season to take on a bigger role this year
Okay, maybe it wasn't all Johnson's fault.

My overall thoughts are this is a great deal as it stands right now.  Vokoun has had injury problems lately, especially with his groin, but he fills a huge need for the Penguins if he stays healthy.  I personally felt that getting a backup goalie was the top IMMEDIATE need for the Penguins.  There are the contract situations with the forwards – but they don’t expire until next summer, and the defense played bad – but they are all under contract, so goaltending was still a fluid situation which could be fixed easily and quickly.  Also, hopefully we don't see this happen in Pittsburgh:



Here are some other miscellaneous thoughts on this deal:
- Vokoun has clearly signed on to be a backup.  He is not a threat to Fleury, and the team called Fleury before the deal to talk to him about it.  Vokoun even said in interviews he does not care how much he plays, he just wants to win a Cup.  There is NO goalie controversy whatsoever.

- Expect Vokoun to play in roughly 25 games or so.  The Pens wanted Fleury to play in 60 games last season and he ended up in 67 due to a variety of factors.  As we all saw how he floundered through March and April, there is no chance the Pens will let that happen again.  Vokoun should be good for at least 20 starts plus other relief appearances if not more starts.
Add 1 to the Euro group!

- This move both pushes Fleury, since he has a starting caliber goalie behind him, and also allows him to relax because he knows he can have an off night and feel confident about the goalie stepping into his place.  Athletes like Fleury always want to be the guy, and often have trouble trusting others to do a job as well as they can do it themselves (reference: Big Ben always playing at 50% when injured).  A goalie of Vokoun’s caliber takes that weight off of Fleury’s shoulders, while also letting him know that he can’t slump without getting replaced.  It also helps the coaching staff in the same way as they can hopefully trust Vokoun more than they did Johnson or Thiessen last year.

- Many people have questioned spending $2 million on a backup.  It is pricey; there is no question about that.  However, the cap is expected to go up to $70.3 million according to many sources, which makes it a manageable number to deal with.  Also, Ray Shero will not let this signing break the bank on keeping a top 3 center, I assure you.  There are enough other disposable players that he can use in a salary dump if absolutely necessary.  Paying $2 million to see Fleury fresh and strong in the playoffs is well worth the money.  He is capable of carrying this team on his own when given the right situation, and this is a part of creating the right situation.

- Finally, goodbye Brent Johnson.  You were a wonderful backup 2 years ago, not quite as good last year, but you always seemed like a great guy.  It was nice having you in Pittsburgh and I hope you do well elsewhere.  Thank you for punching Rick DiPietro for that everlasting memory.  Good luck.

- I’m not even going to address the 7th round pick; it’s not even worth it.

What are your thoughts? Like Vokoun, hate Vokoun, too much money, or just right?