Goal Assessment: Game 47 - Devils 3 Pens 2

Link to Game 47 Thoughts:  The PensNation

+/- Assessment

1st Goal For (Cooke): + for

• Sutter – takes the puck down the left wing and backhands it towards the net
• Morrow – takes out the defenseman on the crease so the puck ricochets off of him and out towards Cooke
• Cooke – shoves a backhander underneath Hedberg that slides into the net

2nd Goal For (Jokinen): + for

• Letang – makes a pass from the defensive blue line to Jokinen streaking up at the offensive blue line
• Jokinen – rifles a wrist shot past Hedberg

1st Goal Against (Zajac): - for

• Kennedy – fails to clear the puck at 3 different opportunities when it’s high on the boards by the blue line
• Niskanen – gets too far away from Zajac and leaves him with too much room with the puck
• Murray – doesn’t clear the crease and let’s Clarkson completely screen Fleury

2nd Goal Against (Clarkson): - for

• Dupuis – in the penalty box for tripping
• Adams – wanders over to Clarkson but doesn’t try to tie up his stick in shooting position

3rd Goal Against (Kovalchuk): - for

• Sutter – trails the wrong player, leaving Despres isolated into a 2 on 1 situation, then deflects the puck into the net

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Can't Win Them All, Penguins Lose Another

Main Storylines:

Pictured: Immeasurable goaltending wisdom

• A little self-plug to start: My thoughts on the Fleury-Vokoun debate and goaltending statistics in general:  http://thehockeywriters.com/fleury-vs-vokoun-how-much-do-goalie-statistics-matter
• Kris Letang was placed on the IR and Joe Morrow was called up as insurance for the defense.  Letang is eligible to return on Wednesday though.
• Tomas Vokoun and Johan Hedberg get the start in a battle of the backups
• The Penguins are wearing their dark blue jerseys to the chagrin of everyone
• Joe Vitale is a healthy scratch (after taking 2 boarding penalties on Saturday) and Dustin Jeffrey returns to the lineup on the 4th line
• Matt Cooke is playing in his 900th career game

Result:

Devils 3  Pens 1

Goals:  Neal (8) (PP) from Kunitz, Malkin

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442644

Stats:

• Sidney Crosby went 19 for 24 in faceoffs (Malkin 7 for 14, Sutter 8 for 15, Jeffrey 0 for 2)
• Tyler Kennedy received a boost in play, getting 13 minutes of ice time
• Evgeni Malkin led the team with 5 shots

The Good:

Winning puck battles, that's what Pascal Dupuis does

• Evgeni Malkin:  After getting a little too involved in Saturday’s loss, Malkin played a steady game and helped set up the Penguins’ only goal.  He had a few great scoring chances but was stymied all night by Johan Hedberg who made some fantastic saves.  It was a good bounce-back game for Malkin even if there wasn’t a ton of offensive production with it.
• Pascal Dupuis:  Dupuis continued his strong series of games with great defensive work as usual.  He also drew two penalties: one on Gionta for interference and one by forcing Volchenkov into a delay of game with a hard forecheck.  He may not be adding a ton to the scoresheet right now, but Dupuis is a big reason that the top line has a strong +/- and he’s giving the team opportunities to score.

The Bad:

• Simon Despres:  As the rollercoaster that is Simon Despres continues, he went a little downhill in the second game against the Devils.  Puck handling was the root of his problem as he lost it in the defensive zone at least three times.  To his credit though, his recovery efforts after he makes a mistake are improving.  Keep learning Simon, you’ll get there.
• Paul Martin:  The first appearance by Martin in the bad section this season will likely be a short stay.  Martin looked a little sluggish, tired, and like he was trying to do a little too much for the Penguins.  He had some sweeping poke checks that were missing their mark badly and he was at fault for losing the puck at the offensive blue line as Kovalchuk took it to score the Devils’ 2nd goal.  Martin definitely looks like he could use a day off right now.

The Ugly:

Pictured: The Penalty Kill.

• Penalty Kill:  The PK went 0 for 1 but that isn’t necessarily why they are on here.  It’s because of the manner they went 0 for 1.  After killing off 8 out of 10 penalties on Saturday, one would think the Pens would have had the book on the Devils’ PP.  Instead, the Penguins reverted back to the passive box they used in the Islanders loss (which seems forever ago).  Stuck in the passive box, there was no resistance to the original shot on Vokoun and no one to tie up Clarkson on the crease when he went after the rebound.  I will never understand giving an opposing forward the whole crease and slot to work with uncontested, especially when it’s David Clarkson.

+/- Assessment:

• 1st GA (Clarkson): - for Engelland (pinches in zone, gets caught too far)
• 2nd GA (Kovalchuk): - for Martin (giveaway at offensive blue line)
• 3rd GA (Clarkson): - for Neal (penalty), Orpik (miles away from the crease)
• 1st GF (Neal): + for Martin (breakout pass), Malkin (finds Kunitz in slot), Kunitz (passes over to Neal), Neal (goal)
• Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Thoughts:

Good work Boychuk, infiltrate their bench.

• New Jersey Devils:  While I generally just pick apart what the Penguins do in every post-game analysis, I have to give New Jersey credit for an impressive game. The Devils took advantage of the few opportunities they had, and were absolutely dominant at times in the offensive zone as they cycled the puck.  This is one of those losses where there is no point in being mad; the other team just played a very well-executed game.  They also did a wonderful job of attacking the points on the ice where the Penguins usually run their breakouts.  People may want to complain about the trap since it’s New Jersey, but with their pursuit and puck possession, the Devils did a hell of a lot more than trap. Also give Johan "Moose" Hedberg a lot of credit for showing some amazing anticipation and playing great.
• Vitale Scratched:  This move was likely because Vitale took two boarding penalties on Saturday, but I found it to be a misguided switch.  Vitale has provided so much energy to this team and has worked so well with Glass and Adams that I thought he was a fixture in this lineup by now.  The Pens certainly could have used that energy and speed as the Devils took the game over for large amounts of time.  I’m glad Jeffrey got back in the lineup, but I’m not sure Vitale was the right scratch.
• 2nd Line Wing:  Give Boychuk credit, he is developing chemistry with Malkin and the two had some very nice passing plays.  If it wasn’t for Hedberg’s excellent work, Boychuk would probably have had an assist or two.  However, Hedberg did play excellent and Boychuk still isn’t producing quite as much as I would like to see.  I’m still onboard with putting Jeffrey back on the 2nd line for a game or two.  I’m not saying give up on Boychuk by any means, but someone has to earn that spot eventually, right?
• Defenseman Injury Report:  Niskanen has been skating and said he was still a couple days away.  While he might be ready for Wed, it’s far from a sure thing yet.  Letang was placed on the IR retroactive to Tuesday, so he will be eligible to return on for Wed if he is ready.  I have seen reports ranging from “lower body injury” to “groin injury”.  If it’s a groin injury, give Letang extra days to rest because that type of nagging injury can derail his whole season with how he plays.  The young guys are playing well enough for the Pens to take their time right now.

Pens Record: 8-5-0, 16 pts

Next Game:  2/13 vs Ott, 7pm

Penguins Watch Loss From the Penalty Box

Main Storylines:

• The Penguins enter this game on a 5 game winning streak. Crosby is on a 6 game point streak
• Martin Brodeur is playing in his 1200th game
• Kris Letang did not make the trip to NJ so the lineup remains the same as last game
• Matt Niskanen has been skating separately but there is no timetable for his return
• Former Penguin Tomas Sandstrom was elected to the Swedish Hockey Hall of Fame

Result:

Devils 3  Pens 1

Goals:  Sutter (3) (PP) from Despres, Kennedy

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442629

Stats:

• The Pens took 12 minor penalties in the game
• Sidney Crosby had 6 shots and Evgeni Malkin had 5
• Malkin drew 4 penalties and took 3 penalties
• Craig Adams played 1:19 at even strength and 6:09 shorthanded

The Good:

Last year, Martin elbows Clarkson in the head and passes
the puck to a Devils player.

• Pascal Dupuis:  Despite taking 1 of the 12 minors, Dupuis had an overall good game and caused havoc in the passing lanes for New Jersey.  He was credited with 2 takeaways and provided strong defensive support at even strength and on the penalty kill.  He actually contributed to pretty much every situation for the Pens, playing 2:44 on the PP, 6:11 on the PK, and 9:30 at even strength.  Sadly, the biggest reason Dupuis had a good game was because the Pens spent most of the game in the defensive zone.
• Paul Martin:  It was just another game for Martin, leading the team with 28:49 on the ice and playing mostly mistake-free hockey.  Unfortunately he finally took his first penalty of the season, but the team survived the PK without him.  I was most impressed with his offensive zone puck movement in this game even though it didn’t amount to anything. He certainly loves that spin move at the point and you can tell his confidence is extremely high with how often he goes to it right now.

The Bad:

• James Neal:  Neal seems to be going through bouts of brilliant hockey and useless hockey depending on the day.  The train to the penalty box certainly didn’t help his cause, but he took an awful slashing penalty to end a powerplay and generally had puck control problems all day.  With a couple turnovers and missed passes on Saturday, I’m guessing Neal bounces back for a strong game on Sunday since that has been his trend this season.

The Ugly:

Hard to stop everything when it's 5 on 4 for over a period.

• Discipline:  TWELVE MINOR PENALTIES.  Going back through most of them, the ones that were questionable were Vitale for boarding, Vitale for boarding, and that’s it.  Take away another (Bortuzzo for roughing) as a coincidental minor and that still leaves NINE BAD PENALTIES.  That’s simply unacceptable.  The Pens had a chance to feel everything out with a 1-0 first period lead and didn’t learn anything as the game went on.  Instead they got increasingly frustrated and took some foolish penalties.  Every player has to be smarter than that.

+/- Assessment:

• 1st GF (Sutter): + for Reese (keeps puck in zone), Kennedy (passes to Despres), Despres (one-timer), Sutter (deflection goal)
• 1st GA (Matteau): - for Cooke (goes to wrong point), Orpik (releases on Matteau)
• 2nd GA (Henrique): - for Glass (penalty)
• 3rd GA (Butler): - for Malkin (penalty)
• Season +/-: Click here for the Season +/- spreadsheet

Thoughts:

Not always pretty, but what a legendary goaltender.

• Evgeni Malkin:  Malkin drew the ire of most people today, drawing 4 penalties but also taking 3 (one of which cost a potential powerplay).  I have to imagine most of the people that are quick to turn on Malkin are also the ones quick to turn on Fleury.  Both players are high risk, high reward players.  You’ll get lots of positives AND negatives with both, but far more positives in the long run.  Everyone just has to accept that with both, it’s not going to change.  For what it’s worth, I had Geno marked down for 11 positive plays and 7 negative plays in this game.  The next player I had marked down the most was Dupuis with 8 plays total.  That’s just what you get with Geno, he’s going to be very involved and it’ll come with negatives.  More often than not, it’s worth it.
• Martin Brodeur:  Give credit to Brodeur for this game as well.  He made two outstanding saves that put an exclamation mark on this game.  The first one was on Kunitz on the very first shift of the game, and the 2nd one was on the 2nd to last shift on Malkin.  The Pens could have played 100x better and may still not have beaten Marty more than once.
• Refs/Penalties:  While most of this is covered under “The Ugly,” the team failed miserably at adjusting to how the game was called.  The refs were clearly calling the game tight early; New Jersey took their fair share of penalties for it too.  It’s up to the players and teams to see how each ref is calling each game and adjust in turn.  Refs only call what the players give them a chance to call - it’s on the players ultimately.
• 2nd Line Wing:  Boychuk hasn’t really progressed at all in his game with Malkin and Neal.  Speed is still an asset, but his puck handling can be atrocious at times.  I’ve called for this 2 games in a row now, but maybe with the loss we will see Jeffrey enter the lineup again.  Jeffrey adds a defensive aspect that Boychuk doesn’t have.  If no one is going to add offense to that line, I at least want to see a defensive addition then.
• Goaltending:  Fleury faced another rough game stat wise but played a solid game overall.  He was left all alone on the first goal and did as much as can be expected.  The second goal was just an amazing bounce for the Devils as the puck hit the post and landed on Henrique’s stick.  Fleury would probably want the 3rd goal back though since he was just beaten on a clean shot.  Regardless, I’m sure Vokoun plays Sunday and people start goalie controversy crap over nothing again.  Let’s wait until Fleury actually costs the team a game before we attack him for once perhaps.

Pens Record: 8-4-0, 16 pts

Next Game:  2/10 vs NJ, 7:30pm

Bortuzzo is Free! Penguins Defeat Devils at Home, 5-1

Main Storylines:

• Marc-Andre Fleury gets the start coming off of Vokoun’s shutout against NYR.  Vokoun starts tomorrow in Washington
• Zach Boychuk makes his Penguins debut in the lineup today.  It’s two weeks early, but if Boychuk fits in, start paying attention to Jeffrey/Tangradi/Lovejoy/Bortuzzo because one of them will have to be moved/waived
• Bortuzzo stays in the lineup while Tangradi, Jeffrey, and Lovejoy are healthy scratches
• Chris Kunitz has been ill over the past few days but remains in the lineup

Result:

Pens 5  Devils 1

Goals:  Sutter (1) from Crosby, Malkin

            Kunitz (2) unassisted

            Letang (2) from Kunitz, Malkin

            Crosby (4) from Kunitz, Dupuis

            Bortuzzo (1) from Crosby, Dupuis

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442582

Stats:

• Sidney Crosby led the team with 5 shots.  Evgeni Malkin failed to register a shot on net.
• Crosby also had both penalties for the Penguins
• James Neal led the team with 4 hits
• The Pens dominated in faceoffs with Vitale (75%), Crosby (66.7%), Sutter (63.6%) and Malkin (54.5%) all winning a majority of draws
• Every player skated for at least 11 minutes and Paul Martin topped the group with *only* 24:50

The Good:

Bortuzzo is free!!!

• First Line:  Crosby was a stud, Kunitz was sick and still productive, but I’m not starting with either of them. 
• Pascal Dupuis had an absolutely fantastic, yet incredibly quiet, game.  He was the best backchecking forward on the team, strong on both PKs, and gave the defense plenty of help to spring Crosby and Kunitz.  For all the chances the first line had, credit Dupuis for making most of them possible behind the scenes
• On to Chris Kunitz who, despite playing through the flu, had a very strong forechecking game and showed better puck control and vision than he has all season.  He was the recipient of a gift from Anton Volchenkov on his goal and made the primary passes to Crosby and Letang on their goals.  Most importantly, he wasn’t a turnover machine and kept the puck moving forward.
• Now on to that Crosby guy.  Sid had a dismal first period, committing 3 turnovers and a penalty late in the period.  Once he was out of the box in the second period though, his game came to life through speed and forechecking.  He was chaotic around the net and ripped a wicked wrist shot past Brodeur’s glove in the 3rd.  Also, give him a ton of credit for the assist on Bortuzzo’s goal as he blatantly took the puck from Krys Barch to make it happen. 
• Robert Bortuzzo:  After clamoring through training camp and the first 6 games for Bortuzzo’s inclusion in the lineup, I finally get to list him in this section!  Bortuzzo played another solid game, showing no NHL jitters and sticking to safe, simple decisions.  He was responsible with the puck and was rewarded with his first NHL goal on a shot from the point that was deflected by a Devils’ defenseman.  He is everything you can ask for from a 3rd pair defenseman right now and even more!
• Puck Support:  For the second game in a row, the key to the Penguins success was strong puck support, especially in the defensive zone.  There were still turnovers, but not once was there a turnover where no Penguin was around to slide and cover for it.  The Penguins ability to recover from and cover up their mistakes hinges completely on puck support and they are doing a great job of it right now.
• Defense:  Give everyone on the defense credit.  Martin and Orpik played another strong game as the shutdown pair and I doubt even Bylsma in his wildest dreams thought they would be this successful.  Letang and Despres appear to have really learned each other’s game and are demonstrating plenty of skill and chemistry.  Even Bortuzzo and Engelland look plenty capable of moving the puck and protecting the zone.  There is a lot of solid, fundamentally-sound hockey being played by the defense right now.
• Marc-Andre Fleury:  He only had the chance to face 16 shots, but the only one Fleury didn’t stop was Andy Greene alone in front.  He made a couple very strong pad saves and kept the Penguins steady when the offense wasn’t working in the first period.  It was a pedestrian solid game for Fleury.  It’s also good to note that despite only facing 4 shots in the 2nd period, he still didn’t allow a weak goal from lack of action.  His showed 60 minutes of strong focus today.

The Bad:

The 3rd line is starting to improve

• Tyler Kennedy:  TK’s first period was horrendous, but he did improve his play to adequate as the game went on.  Between missing the net and turning the puck over multiple times at center ice, I was surprised his ice time wasn’t cut by Bylsma as the game went on.  TK’s play has declined since the opening weekend and I have a feeling that moving up to the 2nd, down to the 4th, and back to the 3rd line has not helped in the process.

The Ugly:

• Powerplay:  The only goal New Jersey scored was during a Penguins powerplay, of course.  The team is still having major issues with zone entry (it might be time to start dumping it in) and puck movement is still generally awful all around.  Malkin doesn’t belong on the point and while he’s strong defensively, he’s not strong enough to be the main “defenseman” with Letang hanging at the left boards.  The Pens are the first team this season to allow 2 shorthanded goals now.  It’s time to go to Martin-Letang or Despres-Letang on the top powerplay and move Kunitz to the #2 PP unit.  Kunitz in front does nothing when the puck doesn’t get there anyways.

+/- Assessment:

If you’re new to this – instead of going by typical NHL plus/minus, I’m going to go back and watch every goal to determine who actually helped or screwed up.  Game by game results are in the recap and the season results are linked on the right side and below.

Andy Greene? Shorthanded? What?

• 1st GF (Sutter): + for Despres (moves puck to Bortuzzo), Bortuzzo (clears D zone to Malkin), Malkin (cross ice pass to Sutter), Crosby (pulls Gionta away,swats puck), Sutter (chips puck, scores)
• 2nd GF (Kunitz) + for Kunitz (takes fanned pass, goal)
• 1st GA (Greene) – for Dupuis (failed entry at blue line), Crosby (turnover in neutral zone), Malkin (loses Greene)
• 3rd GF (Letang) + for Malkin (forecheck), Kunitz (forecheck, pass), Letang (patience, goal)
• 4th GF (Crosby) + for Bortuzzo (stands up NJ entry into zone), Dupuis (swats puck to Kunitz, pulls dman away), Kunitz (pass to Crosby), Crosby (goal)
• 5th GF (Bortuzzo) + for Crosby (steals puck, pass), Bortuzzo (goal)
• Season +/-: http://www.crosbyftw.com/p/plusminus-spreadsheet.html

Thoughts:

One game in, Boychuk was a solid pickup.

• Location of Turnovers:  Most of the Penguins turnovers were in the offensive zone or on the boards in the defensive zone.  While turnovers suck, they will always happen and those are the best areas possible to lose the puck if it’s going to happen.  In the Penguins’ losses, most of their turnovers occurred at the defensive blue line or in the netural zone.  Now that they are losing the puck around the perimeter, it’s much easier to shift back into a defensive stance after a turnover.  Smart decisions à easier team defense, even when mistakes happen.
• Skating to the Puck:  Another change for the Penguins has been their effort in skating towards passes and towards the puck exiting the defensive zone.  A big problem with neutral zone turnovers is that forwards get trapped heading the wrong way as the puck goes back to the defensive end.  The Pens are showing a renewed commitment to skating back to the puck as their defensemen try to exit the zone though.  This a) helps with puck support if a defenseman loses it, b) makes for easier outlet passes, and c) opens up other forwards.  The best demonstration of this was on Sutter’s goal.  Malkin is skating back towards the defensive zone to give an outlet to Bortuzzo and receive a pass.  Meanwhile, Sutter is on the opposite side moving to the offensive zone.  Malkin gets his pass and has a clear lane to throw the puck across to Sutter in full stride to create the rush.  That movement helps the defense and offense all at the same time.
• Zach Boychuk:  Boychuk had a solid debut with the Penguins, demonstrating good speed and the ability to create room and forecheck for Malkin and Neal.  If nothing else, he backs defenders off so Malkin and Neal can do their thing.  That’s something Tangradi wasn’t able to do at all.  It’ll be interesting to see what kind of chemistry Boychuk can develop with the 2nd line, but he has already outplayed Tangradi there and can give Jeffrey a run for his money.
• Future Roster Moves:  There are still 2ish weeks until Niskanen returns, but a roster move will be necessary when he does come back.  Start thinking, who gets removed from the roster (via trade, waivers, or getting sent down) and which defenseman sits?  My early answer is trade/waive Lovejoy, sit Engelland, keep Jeffrey and Tangradi as healthy scratches.  What would you do?

Thanks Stevie!! (@highheelshockey)

Pens Record: 5-3-0, 10 pts

Next Game:  2/3 @ Was, 12:30pm

News and Notes on Free Agency Eve

Niskanen Re-Signs

The Pens now have 6 defensemen on the NHL roster as they re-signed Matt Niskanen to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $2.3 million each year.  He will actually make $2.1 million next year and $2.5 million the following year, a smart move with a potential lockout looming as ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted.  Niskanen went from one of the most hated to one of the most loved Penguins in the span of a year as he adjusted to and thrived in Bylsma’s quick moving system.

Does Staal score this goal without Niski?  No he doesn't.

Analysis:  My guess was 2 years, $4.5 million total so I think it’s a solid deal!  It falls right in line with a contract I had mentioned on Friday’s podcast when Columbus defenseman Nikita Nikitin signed a 2 year, $4.3 million deal.  I imagine Niskanen wanted a longer deal and Shero probably would have liked a 1 year deal, so they settled on two.  When this deal expires, many of the Pens young defensemen will be ready for the NHL, so Niskanen will certainly have to play well in the second year of this deal to stay in Pittsburgh.

Thiessen Re-Signs

After not being tendered a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, Brad Thiessen still re-signed with the Penguins for 1 year on a two-way contract that will pay him $525,000 at the NHL level.  Thiessen saw limited NHL time last year while Brent Johnson was struggling/injured.  He will likely start for the Baby Pens, sitting 3^rd on the depth chart behind Fleury and Vokoun.

Thiessen will face tougher opponents in the AHL
than he did in the NHL last year.

Analysis:  I am quite surprised Thiessen is back after the Pens signed Vokoun and acquired 3 goalies last weekend (2 drafted, 1 via trade with Phoenix).  But at the NHL minimum, he does bring a plethora of AHL experience and success, along with some NHL experience if Fleury or Vokoun get hurt.  This will probably be his last year with the franchise I would think.

Parise Watch

With less than 24 hours to go until Free Agency opens up, Parise watch is in full swing.  He will be with his agent in Ontario tomorrow basically fielding offers/visits/calls/singing telegrams (call me maybe?).  Rob Rossi, Josh Yohe, and some others have reported they expect the Pens to offer a deal around $75-$80 million over 10 years.  It is not expected to be front-loaded (Shero hates giving out front-loaded deals, Crosby is truly the exception).  Here’s my take on the front-runners for Parise:

At least one jersey won't change for Parise.

Minnesota – Parise is originally from Minneapolis and Minnesota is looking to make a big splash by luring him back home.  They will certainly offer a lot of money, I would guess around $10 million per year, and likely a similar length to the Pens deal if that’s what Parise wants.  They may be the worst of the teams with a shot to get him, but don’t discount the fact that Minnesota was in first place in the West for a little bit last year.  They aren’t as bad as people think.

Strengths: Hometown, Money

Detroit – The Wings have a plethora of cap space and will look to sign both Parise and Suter in one swift move.  There had been rumors that the 2 players were interested in going to the same place, so keep that in mind.  I’m guessing Detroit will offer the longest term in the same way they have given Zetterberg and Datsyuk long deals.  The Wings have the potential of offering the most money, years, and a chance to play with a winner.  Don’t forget, as Pens fans bank on Parise wanting to play with Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk is kinda a decent and well-respected player too…

Strengths: Money, Winner, Datsyuk?

New Jersey – New Jersey has put themselves in quite the pickle with money.  News came out earlier this week that they could not commit money to Martin Brodeur yet, so Brodeur hired agent Pat Brisson (Crosby’s agent) and will test out the free agent market tomorrow.  The wording of this was very telling, “commit”.  My hypothesis is they cannot commit the money because they want a final answer from Parise first, only after that can they commit money to Brodeur (if he even waits for them).  Parise has played for the Devils his entire career and will certainly be drawn to return based on the Cup Final run that ended just weeks ago.  He knows what he is getting into with New Jersey, and to some players, that means a lot.

Strengths: “Home”/Familiarity, Winner

Pittsburgh – The Pens are banking heavily on the “Crosby effect” to lure Parise in.  Their offer will be for a long term, though it will likely be one of the lowest offers Parise receives and it will not be front loaded.  Much of the fanfare around Parise coming to Pittsburgh surrounds the idea that he would want to play with Sidney Crosby, would take less money to do so, and would come here to try and build a long-lasting dynasty.  Fans want winners, owners want winners, but we don’t quite know what every player wants.  Also, don’t expect Shero to offer anything that could possibly jeopardize Malkin’s long term contract coming after next year (10 yrs/80 mil does not fyi).

Strengths: Winner, Crosby

Rest of the League – Undoubtedly there will be at least 10 more offers in addition to the ones I have listed above.  Free Agency is pure insanity, so who knows what team comes out of left field with a big offer that might draw Parise in.  The Rangers?  The Kings?  The Flyers?  Who wouldn’t want Zach Parise?  So while those 4 may be the front runners, anything could happen.

Final Thoughts: Years and a front-loaded deal could be the tie-breakers when it comes to the Parise sweepstakes.  I would not be shocked if this goes beyond July 1^st as he considers a dozen offers and plays teams against each other in a bidding war.  Unfortunately, the Pens cannot keep up in a bidding war, or even in the original bids.  While Pens fans want to say Parise should come to Pittsburgh if he wants to play for a winner, the other 29 teams are trying to build a winner too, and New Jersey (and many others) came closer to it than the Pens have in the past 3 years.  To be honest, I do not foresee Parise taking less money to play in Pittsburgh.  I’ll make my final prediction tomorrow, but unless something drastically changes in the next 19ish hours, it won’t be Pittsburgh.

UPDATED: KDKA is reporting that Parise's top 2 choices are Minnesota and Pittsburgh at this point.  While I find this hard to believe since free agency doesn't begin for another 17 hours and Parise has no clue what he will be offered by other teams, if that's the case, my prediction is Minnesota.  Again though, I find this very hard to believe.

Other Free Agents

Ryan Suter – Suter will be hanging out at his farm in Wisconsin tomorrow and taking phone calls throughout the day.  Pittsburgh will be in the mix, though they will surely be beat in terms of money.  Detroit is the heavy favorite according to many, and Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Anaheim and Edmonton are expected to also make offers (along with others).  Nashville isn’t quite out of the running yet, though it looks unlikely that Suter will return.  Suter places a high value on comfort and lifestyle for his family, so money may not be the biggest factor in this decision.  One thing that may hurt Pittsburgh: the treatment of Paul Martin.  If Suter does not live up to his contract, I’m not sure he wants to risk putting his family through what Martin has dealt with in Pittsburgh.

Shero has a thing for acquiring former Predators.
(O'Reilly and Sullivan)

Jason Garrison – The hopefully not one hit wonder defenseman for the Panthers is still in negotiations with the team, though they do not look very fruitful as he is due a major raise from his $700k salary.  There is a slight chance that the Panthers may trade his rights late and Vancouver is inquiring about it after missing out on Justin Schultz (agreed to terms with Edmonton).  Is a Luongo trade in the mix with this one in the next 18 hours?

PA Parenteau – The pass happy Isles forward is certain to test free agent waters tomorrow, though he will continue talking to the Isles after the clock hits noon.  It’s rumored that the Avs and Sens will be in hard on him, and the Avs have a lot of cap space to overpay offer him.  I would expect every team that loses the Parise sweepstakes to give him a call as well, further driving up his price.  It’s a good year to be Parenteau.

Shane Doan – Much like Parenteau, every team that loses on Parise will quickly turn to Doan.  There have even been rumors that Jonathan Toews was trying to recruit him personally for the Blackhawks.  Doan has expressed a preference for staying in Phoenix, but uncertainty around the team will likely lead to him listening to offers on Sunday.  Look for Chicago, Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Phoenix to lead the rush to Doan pending the Parise situation.

I’ll leave it at that for now; keep up with the rest on Twitter!  Thanks for reading!