Goal Assessment: Game 33 - Pens 2 Flyers 1 (OT)

Link for Game 33 Thoughts:  The PensNation



+/- Assessment

1st Goal Against (Giroux): - for

• Martin – in the penalty box for a retaliatory slashing penalty
• (no one else – bad bounce off of Glass, who had his stick in the right spot)

1st Goal For (Crosby): + for

• Bennett – keeps puck in the zone, eventually passes up to Martin
• Neal – gives Crosby an opening and then feeds the puck to back down to Bennett
• Martin – takes the pass from Bennett and sets up Crosby
• Crosby – passes the puck to Neal and then gets into a shooting position, one-times Martin’s pass to tie the game

2nd Goal For (Kennedy): + for

• Niskanen – feeds Kennedy from the point
• Kennedy – recovered his own rebound, passed it to Niskanen, moved into open space, ripped a shot past Bryzgalov for the winner

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Game 24 - Penguins 5 Flyers 4: Goal Assessment

Get the post-game thoughts here:  The PensNation

+/- Assessment:

1st Goal Against (Voracek): - for

• Neal – in the penalty box for elbowing (a soft call, but he still put himself in position for it unnecessarily)
• Martin – had no clue Voracek was sliding down from his point position
• Orpik – didn’t adjust to Simmonds going down low, leaving Martin to cover Simmonds and the back side

1st Goal For (Kunitz): + for

• Crosby – steals the puck at the blue line from Couturier and passes it to Letang
• Letang – puts the puck into the slot/crease area
• Kunitz – picks up the puck in front and scores

2nd Goal Against (Rinaldo): - for

• Niskanen – not back into the play yet after serving an interference penalty
• Crosby – doesn’t go out to the point after the faceoff (miscommunication with Kunitz)
• Kunitz – doesn’t go out to the point after the faceoff (miscommunication with Crosby)
• Engelland – leans on Rinaldo, but releases when the puck gets to the net

3rd Goal Against (Timonen): - for

• Engelland – stops abruptly in front of Fleury, creating a screen instead of following the puck out to Timonen
• (also Fleury’s fault, he should have had it)

4th Goal Against (Voracek): - for

• Neal – in the penalty box for slashing
• No One Else – there were 3 bad bounces that worked against the Pens in about 4 seconds

2nd Goal For (Dupius): + for

• Kunitz – keeps the puck in on the first clearing attempt
• Orpik – gets the puck at the blue line and fires it to the net
• Crosby – takes the puck behind the net and gives Dupuis a perfect saucer pass
• Dupuis – scores on a wide open net

3rd Goal For (Neal): + for

• Bennett – takes the puck away from Simmonds in the offensive zone
• Malkin – draws Coburn’s attention on the crease and pulls him further away from Neal
• Neal – puts the puck towards the net and it banks in off of Coburn

4th Goal For (Kennedy): + for

• Sutter – dumps puck in, tries to put it on net, and provides a screen in front of Bryzgalov
• Cooke – keeps the puck in with a forecheck and then sets up Kennedy
• Kennedy – keeps the puck in with a forecheck and then finds open space to one-time Cooke’s pass into the net

5th Goal For (Kunitz): + for

• Dupuis – takes the puck away from Timonen at the defensive blue line, chips it up to Kunitz
• Crosby – sets up Kunitz for the goal
• Kunitz – passes the puck to Crosby and then gets into a shooting position to score the game winner

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Losing Like It's April 2012, Flyers Defeat Pens 6-5

Sorry for the delay on the recap – had to wait until the replay on NHL Network this afternoon to assess the goals.

Main Storylines:

• Tomas Vokoun gets the start in net after Fleury won 3 straight (2.01 GAA, .932 save %)
• Jeffrey, Boychuk, and Despres are the scratches for the 2nd straight game

Result:

Flyers 6  Pens 5

Goals:  Niskanen (2) from Letang

            Malkin (4) (PP) from Martin, Neal

            Kennedy (2) from Martin, Orpik

            Neal (12) (PP) from Malkin, Crosby

            Sutter (4) from Martin, Cooke    

ESPN Recap: http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442708

Stats:

• Sidney Crosby went 21 for 28 in faceoffs.  Malkin was 7 for 10 and Vitale was 5 for 6 .
• Special teams skewed TOI a lot – Crosby (27:00 with 7:32 on PP), Cooke (18:46 with 5:56 SH), Adams (7:35 with 4:06 SH)
• More TOI – Vitale (6:19), Kennedy (7:48), Glass (6:37), Engelland (9:00), Bortuzzo (8:59), Bennett (8:03)
• Brooks Orpik led the team with 5 blocks (team total was only 9)
• Brandon Sutter and Evgeni Malkin led the team with 5 shots each (Crosby next with 4)

The Good:

Hope Sutter enjoyed this moment that lasted half a second.

• Brandon Sutter:  It could have been a defining moment and defining game for Sutter.  He followed the game plan perfectly, stopped with the puck behind Bryzgalov’s net, and wrapped it around to tie the game at 5 late in the 3rd period.  However, the sour result of a loss just a minute later will forever tarnish Sutter’s moment.  Even without the goal, he played well all night and was well-positioned in both ends.
• Pascal Dupuis:  Duper caught my attention with his poise and maturity more than anything against the Flyers.  He generally played well but looked like a saint compared to the rest of both teams.  At two different points, Dupuis took cross-checks to the back into the boards.  They could have been called boarding or cross-checking and no one would have blinked (but they weren't).  Both times, Dupuis got himself back up, got back into the play, and went on with his business.  No talking, no looking to the ref, no retaliation – he just continued to do his job.  Even if no one followed it, he put on a great display of leadership by example.

Noteworthy:

Geno shouldn't have been near Couturier as this happened.

• Tyler Kennedy:  It was nice to see TK put a puck in the net, but that was the only thing that kept him from being a section or two lower.  After demonstrating some improvement in puck management in the previous two games, Kennedy was a turnover machine in the neutral zone (3 giveaways in 2 shifts at one point).  He only played 7:48 (less than Bennett) and has been called out by the organization a couple of times now.  Kennedy needs to play smarter asap if he thinks his career will continue in Pittsburgh.
• Evgeni Malkin:  Geno improved on faceoffs, dealt with the Flyers well for MOST of the game, and added a nice PP goal.  However, he also had multiple giveaways on the PP (one leading to a shorthanded breakaway), and got into that ugly mess with Sean Couturier.  The one thing that frustrates me more than anything about Geno is his inability to skate away. I understand he was getting hit during the play, I’ll even accept the retaliation during the play, but he has to learn to skate away from players after the whistle.  There is nothing to gain by lingering with players who generally get in your head already, especially for a superstar.
• Matt Niskanen:  Niskanen had shifts ranging from perfect to abysmal much like the rest of the team. His goal was a perfect shot from the point and he generally did a good job of stepping up in the defensive end.  His transition game left a lot to be desired though as he had a couple blatant giveaways and tried to take the body at the wrong times against Flyers forwards.  The 5th goal against was completely on him with a bad decision to step up in the neutral zone, a poor play on the puck, and a bad bounce for the goal.
• Consol Atmosphere:  Consol was a madhouse in the 1st and 3rd and dead silent in the 2nd period.  It was generally a very impressive crowd for the building; the atmosphere was playoff-like at important times.  That being said, it’s very clear that what happens on the ice determines how loud the crowd is going to be.  Be it the fans, arena, or whatever other sources you can think of, the crowd does not feed off of itself, it feeds off of gameplay.  Had that been a gut-wrenching, entertaining 1-0 victory, it probably would have been a quiet night.

The Bad:

• Deryk Engelland:  Engelland only played 9 minutes and wasn’t at fault for any goals against, so why is he in this section? - Because his focus was horrible. Engelland looked frequently distracted by the Flyers grit guys and put himself out of position a few times chasing after them.  He let himself get goaded into a penalty by Rinaldo, and was lucky he didn’t get called for another one when he retaliated after Bortuzzo was boarded.  If he wants to be a tough guy and fight, that’s fine, but it needs to start and end there.  I was very glad he only played 9 minutes.
• 4th Line:  The 4th line struggled to get the puck out of the defensive zone a few times, got stuck on that mess of a 1st goal by the Flyers, and didn’t add much to the game in their limited time.  Most games, the Pens 4th line will outplay any other team’s 4th line (and 3rd line).  This wasn’t one of those games.
• Officiating:  The officials seemed to alternate between calling a very tight game and letting everything go, leading to no consistency on the ice.  Honestly, I think both teams got screwed out of calls (Neal was high-sticked twice, Niskanen deserved an interference call, Engelland deserved a roughing call, etc.)  The one that hurt the worst on the scoreboard was the Adams elbowing call at the end of the 2nd period though (which wasn’t an elbow, just a horrible call).  It was also interesting how patient these refs were with whistling plays dead.  Give credit to the Flyers for playing until the whistle, but I imagine many officiating crews would have blown at least one of the eventual goals dead just for losing sight of the puck.

The Ugly:

Errrr, what?

• Tomas Vokoun:  I mentioned it during the day and unfortunately the result didn’t help.  I did not understand why Vokoun was starting this game when Fleury came in with fantastic numbers as of late.  Going back to last week, I fully expected Vokoun to start Fri @ Wpg, Fleury vs. Buf on Sun, and Fleury again vs. Philly before getting Vokoun back in vs Florida.  Vokoun just had an awful game as I assessed 2 of the 6 goals against as completely on him.  He will bounce back fine, but it was certainly a questionable decision to begin with and I'm sure he's taking the loss harder than any of us are.
• “Composure”:  Someone needs to teach the Penguins’ most valuable players how valuable they are.  There were 4 instances when the Pens and Flyers both had guys sent to the box at the same time.  1st: Cooke and Voracek. That’s a win for Pittsburgh for 2 minutes.  2nd: Glass-Simmonds fight, another win for the Pens for 5 minutes.  3rd: Letang-Rinaldo, huge win for the Flyers for 2 minutes.  4th:  Couturier-Malkin, huge win for the Flyers for 2 minutes, PLUS a powerplay as Malkin took an extra 2.  The Penguins’ stars need to learn to skate away and sometimes let their role players do the dirty work for them.  Lack of composure leads to some awful tradeoffs on the ice (not even including most powerplays and penalty kills) and it’s clearly something the Penguins didn’t learn from last April.
• Puck Decisions:  This was a problem right off the start even though it didn’t cost the Penguins until later.  In the first two shifts of the game, Crosby, Malkin, and Neal all turned the puck over in the offensive zone.  Crosby especially had problems with forcing passes (think of that wasted 2 on 1) and the team as a whole was too careless with the puck.  As soon as the Penguins lose focus, this is where the mistakes pop up and it’s usually very costly.
• First Goal Against:  After about 12 replays of the first goal against, I was still shocked that no one blew a whistle for losing sight of the puck.  However, that’s at the refs discretion so it’s nothing to complain about.  I fully expected Letang to get penalized for covering his hand on the puck (leading to a penalty shot), but the Flyers scored on the play anyways.  Looking through the replays, the only player that didn’t make himself useless in some way was Glass.  I was also less than impressed with how Vokoun stood up looking back at the crease before trying to get back into it.  Dive in Tomas, you have pads and can obstruct everyone’s view the best.

+/- Assessment:

Crosby runs huddles better than Roethlisberger.

• 1st GF (Niskanen): + for Letang (pinches in to keep puck), Sutter (screen in front), Bennett (screen in front), Niskanen (point shot, goal)
• 2nd GF (Malkin): + for Neal (digs for puck in the corner, throws it to the point), Martin (takes wideshot that bounces off boards), Malkin (goal)
• 1st GA (Grossmann): - for Letang (loses Couturier out of the corner), Niskanen (loses a step on Knuble going to the crease), Adams (doesn’t get stick on Talbot), Vitale (does nothing in the whole scrum)
• 2nd GA (Simmonds): - for Dupuis (doesn’t support Martin on clear), Crosby (out of position trying to leave zone early), Martin (overcompensates on coverage of Briere), Orpik (goal goes in off his stick)
• 3rd GA (Voracek): - for Adams (penalty, bad call but still in the box), Orpik (unaware/not covering his area where Voracek is)
• 4th GA (Voracek): - for no one, whole sequence caused by Vokoun’s indecision with the puck, players scramble/cover as best as can be expected
• 3rd GF (Kennedy): + for Crosby (gives TK outlet down low, banks puck up to Martin at point), Orpik (pass to Martin), Martin (shot to the front of the net), Kennedy (corrals puck and scores)
• 5th GA (Simmonds): - for Niskanen (bad step up in neutral zone, has puck go in off of his stick as he tries to recover)
• 4th GF (Neal): + for Crosby (puck retrieval, pass to Malkin), Malkin (pass to Neal), Neal (one-timer goal)
• 5th GF (Sutter): + for Cooke (helps with faceoff win), Martin (sends puck down to Sutter), Sutter (wraparound goal)
• 6th GA (Voracek): - for no one, completely on Vokoun not covering the post as everyone had their guy covered well
• Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet
• **In an effort to make this a more valuable statistic, I’m going to work in TOI in the next couple games for the season totals**

Thoughts:

When he's not passing to the other team,
Crosby is a quiet hockey genius.

• Use of Bennett:  Bennett only played 8:03 in the game and while I won’t rail on Bylsma for keeping him on the bench in a chaotic game, I do think it was a mistake.  Bennett has impressed me with his hockey sense and awareness through his NHL stint so far.  He’s very smart without the puck and clearly knows what to do with the puck.  His puck handling hasn’t come up to speed at the NHL game yet, but I’ll take a player who can handle himself positionally and defensively any day.  The way the Pens were turning the puck over and getting out of position, he may have had a nice calming effect.  I think we will see his first big NHL moment very soon.  As for playing him on the 3rd line…get TK off that line and put Jeffrey on there and then I’m okay with it.  I would love to see him on the 2nd line wing, but he looks comfortable and good on the 3rd line so no complaints yet.  I would rather see him start like this than watch him get 3 games on the 2nd line and then thrown into Bylsma’s doghouse for not keeping up.
• Despres Scratched:  I’ve made it clear I think Despres should be in the lineup over Engelland and I’ve seen nothing to discourage me from that.  He has a higher ceiling, and while he is certainly inconsistent, his average play gives more to this team both offensively and defensively than Engelland does.  Also, sitting Despres for multiple games at a time could turn into a huge mismanagement or waste of a prospect.  I’d rather send him down than have him sitting in the press box.  That being said, Engelland is the 7th best defenseman on this roster to me.
• Observations:  Two little observations that I thought were cool/interesting during the game:  1) When Crosby broke his stick on the powerplay, he made a little nifty decision on how to get a new stick that affected the breakout and setup.  Instead of making a beeline straight to the bench, he skated back to the center of the defensive zone, turned towards the bench and picked up speed as he grabbed a stick that was held out.  It allowed him to take his place on the left side and jump into the rush at full speed without taking up anyone’s open ice.  Just a little thing that Crosby does right.  2) The 2nd line got caught for 2 icings in a row on a long shift in the 2nd period.  Here’s how they bought rest: First Engelland went to the bench with an “injury” to his face that the linesman allowed.  It slowed the teams lining up and also got a new man out there (Orpik).  Orpik went to the center (Cooke) and winger (Malkin) to say something, which bought more time.  Once he lined up, Cooke got himself kicked out of the draw because that was the point of him lining up at center.  Finally, Malkin wins the faceoff with the extra rest and puts it directly to Vokoun so he can cover it for a line change.  It was all just beautifully done.

Pens Record: 11-6-0, 22 pts

Next Game:  2/22 vs Fla, 7pm

Second Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Semifinals

Well, after going 2 for 8 in the first round, you can probably just guess the opposite of my picks and do quite well.  I was right with the Rangers in 7 and the Devils winning in the first round.  Despite my awful first round record, I shall continue on and try to predict the second round just in hopes that I can accidentally look smart to everyone!  Weird fact going into the second round: there is one of each seed, 1-8, left in the playoffs.  Neat.

*PS – Though I am posting these after the Conference Semis are already underway, I’m sticking with the picks I made before the first game started…which is also why I look even more stupid now as I picked the Preds in 5.

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  In the regular season, the Blues finished 21^st in scoring and the Kings finished 29^th.  In the playoffs, the Blues are currently 4^th and the Kings are 8^th.  Despite the difference in rankings, I am going to give the edge to the Kings on potential.  They added Jeff Carter late in the season and faced a tougher goalie in the first round.  If Carter can get on the scoreboard, the Kings will boast more scoring depth than the Blues.  Edge – Los Angeles 

Defense:  Both teams have strong defensive systems and great young defenders.  The Blues are led by youngsters Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk.  Meanwhile, the Kings have a strong mix of young stars like Drew Doughty and playoff veterans like Rob Scuderi.  The Blues finished 1^st in defense in the regular season and are currently 1^st in the playoffs.  The Kings finished 2^nd in the regular season and are currently tied for 1^st in the playoffs.  The Blues forwards generally show more defensive prowess though.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Brian Elliott has a 1.37 GAA and .949 Save % , while Jonathan Quick has a 1.59 GAA and .953 Save % in the playoffs.  Both goalies finished in the Top 5 for most stats in the regular season as well.  Quick is a Vezina candidate, and Elliott probably would have been if he had more games played.  The longer history of success for Quick is really the only difference maker in this matchup.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have great penalty kills due to their defensive prowess, but LA struggles on the PP while St. Louis was clicking at over 30% in the first round.  That difference could be huge in this series when goals are hard to come by.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock has a Stanley Cup ring.  Darryl Sutter has quite a few first round exits, making this abnormal territory for him.  Edge – St. Louis

Result:  Kings in 6.  I can’t pick against Jonathan Quick basically.  It’s that simple.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #4 Nashville Predators

Offense:  Nashville quietly had a Top 10 offense this season and is currently 5^th in the playoffs.  Phoenix’s offense struggled in the bottom half of the league all season, but looked quite capable against the Blackhawks in the 1^st round as they finished the round ranked 3^rd.  Both teams get by without “big name” scorers in their lineup.  The Preds benefit greatly from having more offensive help from their blue line though.  Edge - Nashville

Defense:  Both teams were in the top 10 in defense this season (Nashville 10^th, Phoenix 5^th).  Nashville tends to depend more on their big defensive guys in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter while Phoenix focuses more on a team defensive system.  Both teams also shut down high powered offenses in Detroit and Chicago respectively in the first round.  I can’t go against Shea Weber’s beard out of fear.  Edge - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekka Rinne vs. Mike Smith.  Both goalies are Top 10 in pretty much every stat, they had similar stats in the playoffs, and they both made arguments for a Vezina nomination (which Rinne received and Smith did not.)  Smith was the hotter goalie going into the playoffs while Rinne looked shaky at times, so that’s the kicker to me.  Edge - Phoenix

Special Teams:  The teams were close on the PK, with Nashville 8^th and Phoenix 10^th.  The big decisive factor is that Nashville was 1^st on the PP in the regular season while Phoenix was 29^th.  First round numbers don’t matter for that kind of a difference.  Edge - Nashville

Coaching:  Nashville’s Barry Trotz and Phoenix’s Dave Tippett are both amazing coaches when it comes to getting the most out of their teams through discipline and hard work.  Neither has been all that successful in the playoffs until this year though.  I believe Tippett is working with less talent and has taken his team just as far as Nashville, so I favor him ever so slightly in this matchup.  Edge - Phoenix

Result:  Preds in 5.  Nashville has already exorcized a demon in getting past Detroit in stunning fashion.  The Preds have built their team up specifically for this playoff run, and Phoenix just won’t have the depth to handle it.

#1 New York Rangers vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Both teams had very similar offensive performances in both the regular season and the playoffs so far.  The Rangers may have a stronger set of 4 lines that can put the puck in the net, but the biggest raw talent on either team belongs to Washington with Ovechkin.  Edge - Washington

Defense:  The Capitals have finally learned how to play playoff hockey with a defense-first system that the whole team has committed to, even Alexander Semin.  The Rangers have always played a very strong defensive system, with an emphasis on shot blocking and protecting Henrik Lundqvist.  The Rangers defense is strong through all 3 pairings, while the Caps don’t necessarily have a standout defensive defenseman right now.  Edge – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist earned nominations for the Vezina and Hart trophies this week for his fantastic regular season play.  Meanwhile, Braden Holtby, still wet behind the ears, has entered the playoff fray as a young unknown who has come out of nowhere to take the league by storm.  While hot goalies are great in the playoffs, they fizzle out eventually.  Edge – New York

Special Teams:  Neither team had a strong PP in the regular season, but the Rangers at least sent out the 5^th best PK unit in the league, led by their defense.  Meanwhile, the Caps have the 2^nd best PK in the playoffs, though it should be discounted based on the fact that their 1^st round opponent, Boston, has been awful on the powerplay in recent playoff history.  All in all, there’s no real winner in this matchup.  Edge - Even

Coaching:  Dale Hunter has had a ton of success in the OHL, limited success in his playoff runs as a player, and is coaching in the NHL for the first time.  John Tortorella has already won a Stanley Cup and knows how to press the buttons of his team quite well by now.  Experience is a big factor in the playoffs.  Edge – New York

Result:  Rangers in 6.  Defense wins championships, and while the Caps have shown a strong new commitment to defense, they don’t have the personnel to handle it quite like the Rangers do.  Defensive depth wins this low scoring series.

#5 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  The Flyers ranked 2^nd in offense in the regular season and had a monster 1^st round, crushing Pittsburgh with their offensive depth.  It doesn’t even matter what New Jersey can do (average offense if you are curious).  Edge - Philadelphia

Defense:  Philadelphia’s defense was nothing special in the first round.  Meanwhile New Jersey’s was a bit better, but not spectacular either.  There was a big difference in the regular season between these two however, as New Jersey had a top 10 defense and Philadelphia was in the bottom 10.   Edge – New Jersey

Goaltending:  In recent history, neither Bryzgalov nor Brodeur has looked sharp in the playoffs.  Beyond recent history, Brodeur has had just a little bit of playoff success (multiple Stanley Cups are impressive I guess).  Bryzgalov can’t be trusted as he didn’t look strong in the Pittsburgh series either.  Edge – New Jersey

Special Teams:  Philadelphia had a top 5 powerplay in the regular season and absolutely destroyed Pittsburgh (who had the 3^rd ranked PK in the regular season) in the 1^st round, scoring on over half of their chances.  New Jersey had the best PK in the regular season, but only killed at a 69% rate in the playoffs.  With PK’s suffering in the playoffs, Philadelphia’s powerplay gets a huge advantage.  Edge - Philadelphia

Coaching:  Peter Laviolette pretty much crushed Dan Bylsma in coaching strategy and adjustments in the first round.  He has gone deep in the playoffs before and has a Stanley Cup ring from his time with the Hurricanes.  Peter DeBoer is currently on his first ever playoff run in the NHL as a head coach, after coaching the team he just beat (Florida) to 3 playoff-less seasons.  Edge - Philadelphia

Result:  Devils in 7.  Despite Philadelphia having a majority of the advantages, which will win them some games, I would put my money on Brodeur making a strong push in what could possibly be his last year in the NHL.  Bryzgalov just isn’t trustworthy enough for me.

Podcast #3: Discussing the Mess that was Game 3

One day I'll find a better way to do this rather than wasting posts.  But until then, here's the link (30 mins)!

http://chirb.it/mOdgNm

First Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Quarterfinals

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  There is no question on this one.  LA’s offense has been downright anemic all season and savior Jeff Carter is nursing an ankle injury to start the playoffs.  Vancouver, though without Daniel Sedin to start, still boasts impressive offensive depth.  Edge - Vancouver

Defense:  Both teams have a great amount of depth on defense and veterans that have been to the finals before.  I have a little more faith in the Canucks though because of their experience and more importantly, they have demonstrated the ability to perform at clutch times.  Edge - Vancouver

Goaltending:  Roberto Luongo will be the headcase story of the playoffs.  Jonathan Quick will be a Vezina nominee and might get a Hart nomination as well.  Easy.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have a great PK, but Vancouver gets help from their top 5 powerplay while Los Angeles continues with their anemic scoring.  Edge - Vancouver

Coaching:  Alain Vigenault is on a mission to get the Canucks one more win than last season to get them a Cup while Darryl Sutter is still trying to figure out which buttons to push at which times for LA.  Edge - Vancouver

Misc:  The Canucks enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NHL.  LA entered the last week with a chance to clinch the division but blew it against a division rival.  Edge - Vancouver

Result:  Vancouver in 7.  Despite almost everything going Vancouver’s way, I believe in Jonathan Quick this much that he can take this series to the brink.  Quick has put the Kings on his shoulders all season, but it’ll come down to the clutch goal they can’t produce as Vancouver wins out in the end.

 

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks

Offense:  Whether it’s a product of systems or talent levels, San Jose certainly has the better offense in this matchup and more pure offensive talent with guys like Marleau, Pavelski.  Edge – San Jose

Defense:  Ken Hitchock knows how to get a team to play strong on the defensive end and he has turned the Blues into a gritty, hard-check team that will work hard in their own end.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott combined to win the Jennings trophy for lowest GAA and have combined for 15 shutouts this year.  No one beats this combination.  Edge – St. Louis

Special Teams:  San Jose quietly managed to put together polar opposites of the 2^nd best PP with the 2^nd worst PK.  Meanwhile, the Blues were on the low end of the PP list but higher on the PK.  In the playoffs, I’m siding with defense.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock, the likely Jack Adams winner from the Blues, vs. Todd McLellan, who consistently underachieves with the Sharks.  Edge – St. Louis.

Misc:  St. Louis is lacking playoff experience through most of their roster aside from a few veterans here and there.  San Jose finally enters the playoffs as an underdog, though that is after being Cup favorites before the season started.  The lack of pressure may help San Jose.  Edge – San Jose

Result:  San Jose in 7.  The Blues keep their opponents to low scoring close games, which may work frequently during the season, but leaves a lot to chance and bounces in a 7 game series.  The Sharks are talented enough to capitalize on those opportunities.  Here’s my upset special for the first round.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks

Offense:  Kane, Sharp, maybe a healthy Toews, and Keith vs. Vrbata, Whitney, Doan, Yandle…yeah this isn’t a tough one in my opinion.  Advantage - Chicago

Defense:  For the lack of offensive depth the Coyotes may have, the make up for it through a systematic defensive style that Dave Tippett could probably get 3 year olds to master.  Chicago has a strong blueline, but they are more prone to break downs than Phoenix.  Advantage - Phoenix

Goaltending:  Mike Smith ended the season with a 3 game shutout streak in his last for.  Chicago keeps bouncing back between Crawford and Emery as neither has been all that dependable this season.  Advantage - Phoenix

Special Teams:  Both teams have low-end powerplays despite the offensive talent on the rosters.  Phoenix has a great PK with their goaltending and style, while Chicago fails on that stat as well.  Advantage - Phoenix

Coaching:  Dave Tippett has been a great coach for the Coyotes and has installed a system that keeps defense at the forefront.  Joe Quineville though, he’s been there, he’s won the Cup, he knows how to handle the next 2 months.  Advantage - Chicago

Misc:  Much of this series will come to experience.  Phoenix still does not have a lot of playoff experience, and while Smith has been a solid goalie, he is untested as well.  Chicago has been through this and they know what to do.  Advantage - Chicago

Result:  Chicago in 5.  Though defense wins championships, I don’t see Phoenix having an impenetrable defense for this Blackhawks team.  Both teams enter the playoffs hot, and ultimately, I pick Chicago based on their experience and pure skill up front.  Also, I just don’t believe in Mike Smith in the playoffs yet.

#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings

Offense:  Both teams finished in the top 10 in goals this year with Detroit 7^th and Nashville 8^th.  While Nashville has made some nice additions with Radulov and Fisher over the past 2 years, I still can’t get over the Red Wings’ pure skill.  Advantage - Detroit

Defense:  Both teams were close in goals allowed as well, with Detroit edging it out yet again.  The Wings defense has been there, but I do have some concern about their consistency.  I’m picking Weber, Suter, and Nashville’s young D to be very hungry for a win this series.  Advantage - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekke Rinne vs. Jimmy Howard is an all-star game matchup.  When healthy, Howard was playing as a top 3 goalie in the NHL this year.  Rinne had a “down” year in comparison to some of the Vezina candidate, but he’s still a top 5 goalie.  Advantage: Even

Special Teams:  Nashville had the top PP in the league (which I had not known and am now shocked by) and a top 10 PK.  Detroit was middle of the pack with both units.  Advantage - Nashville

Coaching:  Both of these coaches are great.  Mike Babcock has demonstrated it through the playoffs year after year and Barry Trotz somehow keeps Nashville playing above what their roster looks like every year.  They are both Jack Adams candidates on a yearly basis even if they don’t get the press.  In the playoffs though, you can’t bet against Babcock.  Advantage - Detroit

Misc:  Detroit faltered down the stretch and gave up their chance at home ice, where they play drastically better than on the road.  Nashville finally enters a series with the Wings as the favorites.  Advantage - Nashville

Result:  Detroit in 6.  I think this is the last big run for the aging Wings and they know it.  This will be a last gasp for Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk as age starts wearing on them with injuries.  The problem for Nashville is that a last gasp from Detroit is pretty much the full attack of a normal team.

Eastern Conference

#1 New York Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators

Offense:  The Rangers have gritty depth, but the Senators have a lot of speed up front and use it very well.  Norris candidate Erik Karlsson also adds quite a bit of offensive punch from the blueline.  Advantage - Ottawa

Defense:  The Rangers boast a very impressive 3 pairings at D, where all 3 are capable of playing against a 1^st line.  Ottawa…well they are still learning how to play defense in many ways as Karlsson even faltered with it down the stretch.  Advantage – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist.  Doesn’t matter who Ottawa has (Craig Anderson).  Advantage – New York

Special Teams:  Both teams have their offensive and defensive strengths pour into their special teams in an exact manner.  Ottawa is stronger on the PP but weak on the PK.  New York had a top 5 PK but had a very weak PP.  Ottawa’s PP isn’t so great that it is overbearing though.  Advantage – New York

Coaching:  The Senators’ Paul MacLean has done an amazing job as a first year coach.  Personally, I had this team nowhere close to the playoffs.  John Tortorella meanwhile is downright crazy, though he knows how to get results and he does have a Cup as well.  That last aspect is the biggest to me, MacLean is a rookie for the second time this season.  Advantage – New York

Misc:  Both teams slowed down as the season finished up, but the difference is New York could relax as the #1 seed while Ottawa almost slipped out of the playoffs.  Advantage – New York

Result:  New York in 7.  I think Ottawa is simply the type of team that will give the Rangers trouble due to their quickness.  But much like a gnat or fly, the Rangers will swat at it in annoyance for a little before finally landing a killer blow.  The Rangers finish it off in the end.

#2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Boston had the #2 offense in the league, but Washington had a cold Ovechkin and an injured Backstrom to deal with for much of the year.  Despite Boston’s depth, Washington has more pure firepower when healthy and focused in my opinion.  Advantage - Washington

Defense:  Starting with Zdeno Chara (not a bad start, right?), Boston has a sizeable defense that can hold opponents to the outside and keep them out of the crease.  Washington’s defense has much less experience and doesn’t necessarily have the size to match up well here.  Advantage - Boston

Goaltending:  Washington is having all kinds of injury issues at goalie, as Braden Holtby steps to the forefront with Vokoun and Neuvirth nursing injuries.  Boston has Tim Thomas.  Yeah…  Advantage - Boston

Special Teams:  Both teams have middling powerplays but Boston comes out on top on the penalty kill as long as Chara is out there to dictate the pace of the other team’s powerplay.  Advantage - Boston

Coaching:  The Caps haven’t completely bought into Dale Hunter’s style it seems, and I’m not sure Hunter has either.  Claude Julien won the Cup last year, so I think he’s just a little more confident heading into this series.  Advantage - Boston

Misc:  There will be much talk about Tim Thomas being uncomfortable in the DC area but I can’t see him caring very much.  Stanley Cup Winners don’t go very far the next year historically, but Washington has been lost all season and is lucky to be here right now.  Advantage - Boston

Result:  Boston in 5.  The goaltending matchup is too much to overcome for Washington and Chara should be able to handle the Caps top line with his 90 foot wingspan.

#3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  Florida turned out to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but lucked into the #3 seed by playing in a flat out awful division.  Meanwhile, the Devils got big bounce back years from Kovalchuk and Parise to give Brodeur some support for once.  Advantage – New Jersey

Defense:  The Panthers are one of the rare teams that entered the playoffs allowing more goals than they scored.  New Jersey isn’t the trapping team of the previous decade, but they still know how to play good enough defense over there.  Advantage – New Jersey

Goaltending:  Martin Brodeur may be old, but he can still play the game.  Florida will be relying on a possible mix of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen.  My money is not two goalies that would probably be backups around half the league right now.  Advantage – New Jersey

Special Teams:  One thing the Panthers did do well with this season was their powerplay, which scored a majority of their timely goals this season.  However, they counteracted it with one of the worst PKs in the game.  New Jersey on the other hand has the best PK, almost stopping teams at a 90% rate and an average PP.  Advantage – New Jersey

Coaching:  Kevin Dineen has done a wonderful job for Florida in helping them win their division and make the playoffs for the first time in a decade.  Meanwhile, NJ’s coach, Peter DeBoer, was the Panthers previous coach.  Think there is a revenge factor there?  Advantage – New Jersey

Misc:  Brodeur knows this might be his last run and he’ll leave it all out on the ice in this series.  Florida seems to be entering a little wide-eyed and surprised to be here.  Advantage – New Jersey

Result:  New Jersey in 4.  If you’re surprised by that after my analysis, I’m not sure how you read this far down.

Last, but certainly not least:

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers

Offense:  Two of the top 3 offenses in the league this year, this is just a matchup of offensive juggernauts.  The amount of skill is unreal on both sides between Malkin, Giroux, Crosby, Hartnell (relax, it has to be said).  Both teams have 3^rd and 4^th lines that can score as well.  It’s impossible to bet against Crosby, Malkin, Staal when healthy though.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Defense:  Both defenses have been rather inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes looking unbeatable and sometimes looking like they don’t belong in the NHL.  The Pens seem to have some trouble clearing out the crease in front of Fleury while the Flyers have no problem putting the body on people.  Advantage - Philadelphia

Goaltending:  In the regular season, Fleury demonstrated Vezina potential and Bryzgalov went on a crazy hot streak as the playoff race came to a head.  In the playoffs, Fleury has been there; Bryzgalov has been there and looked awful.  Advantage - Penguins

Special Teams:  Both teams had the exact same powerplay success rate, 19.7%.  The penalty kills differ vastly though as the Pens finished 3^rd in the NHL and the Flyers were in the middle of the pack.  Advantage – Pittsburgh, but this largely depends on the goaltending for the PK.

Coaching:  Dan Bylsma has faced some adversity in the playoffs since the last time he dealt with the Flyers in the postseason.  He has had to learn a lot about his team through this year and seems to have a decent handle on them.  Laviolette is masterful in motivating his team.  His timeout usage seems to always propel them to a win and he knows what buttons to push.  Pens fans won’t like this.  Advantage - Even

Misc:  The Flyers had a huge chip on their shoulder coming into this series, simply hating and wanting to beat the Pens for the first time in the playoffs as the core of these rosters are built.  One of the worst things they could have done was put a chip on the shoulder of the Pens with that disaster brawl at the end of the game a week and a half ago.  Grittiness may be a disadvantage depending on the refs, who will surely be on alert.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Result:  Pittsburgh in 6.  The Flyers are certainly a team that scares me, but I believe the refs will call it tight early and that will help the Pens keep focus while Philly tries to distract them.  Also, Fleury trumps Bryzgalov in my head every way I play it out.  My unsung hero for this series:  Craig Adams will be huge with a key goal or 2; he’ll be big on the PK, and some big hits will make him a key factor in this series.

Meet the #5 Seed, 2012 Philadelphia Flyers

We all hate Philadelphia, and especially the Flyers.  For Pittsburghers, it’s genetic; for Pittsburgh fans, it’s an acquired taste; but one thing is simple, Philly’s loss is our gain.  So as the Pens head into their first round rivalry matchup against the hated Flyers, let’s take a look at why you hate this specific 2012 Philadelphia Flyers team and a brief look at what you should know about them individually:

Let’s start with the suits really quick:

GM Paul Holmgren – Give Holmgren credit, he is decisive and fearless, albeit a little unstable sometimes, when he decides he needs to make a move.  He traded away Jeff Carter and Mike Richards this summer, and followed it up with giving Ilya Bryzgalov a 9 year, $51 million contract.  He may not win it all with this team, but he certainly has the guts to do anything necessary to have a chance at the Cup.

Coach Peter Laviolette – Lavy may also be crazy based on his tirade a week and a half ago that landed him a $10,000 fine, but he knows how to get results.  He has a Stanley Cup ring from coaching the 2006 Hurricanes to a Cup win and he was just one vote shy of winning the Jack Adams award in the same year.  He has the credentials, and the intelligence, but the question is does he have the team and the patience to handle them this year.

Laviolette might want to curb this demeanor a little.

Now on to the roster!

The Talent:

Claude Giroux – Hate him because he’s a Flyer, but you have to respect his game.  He missed 5 games with a concussion and finished 3^rd in scoring with 93 points.  He led the NHL with 38 powerplay points but puts in short-handed time as well.  Giroux has the hands, the skill, and the vision, so expect him to be a threat at all times.

Girls love him for some reason too.

The Former Pens:

Jaromir Jagr – Started by helping the Pens to Stanley Cups in ’91 and ’92, and then spurned them for their biggest rival in his NHL return just last summer.  Jagr still has a wicked wrist shot, but may have durability issues, and will draw the ire of Pens fans whether for his “dying alive” statements long ago or his decision this past summer.  One thing is clear, if he has time and space, he’s beating you glove side.

Max Talbot – The folk hero that brought the Stanley Cup to Pittsburgh in ’09 left for Philly this past summer to the chagrin of Pens fans everywhere.  He put together a revival season for his career, scoring 19 goals, and is always dangerous in his checking role.  You already know he can be a spark plug…but just imagine how he can incite his former fans and teammates.  He probably knows a little too much about how to irritate the Pens than I would like.

How many people just vomited in their mouth?

The Second-Hand “Stars”:

Danny Briere – Little Danny Briere can be a star or a flop, all in the same period.  He’s an overpaid, undersized veteran at this point, but he has never shown the ability to lead his team on his own.  Given room, he can be dangerous with some stellar passing abilities, but as Joe Vitale demonstrated, a hard check can knock him down quickly.

Jakub Voracek – While Briere above will be hot or cold by period, Voracek will likely be hot or cold for the whole series.  Keep him down in Game 1 and he may drift away quietly, but if he scores a big goal, he will put up big numbers throughout the series.  He finished the season hot with 10 points in 7 games (including a 3 point game against Pittsburgh).  Often overlooked due to a lack of physical play, Voracek was still 4^th on the team in takeaways, so the Pens need to beware of him in the neutral zone.

The Young Up and Comers:

Matt Read – Read was red hot for the first 2 months of the season before getting a little lost in the Flyers depth chart after a slump.  He is another takeaway specialist and had a knack for coming up clutch as he led the team with 6 game winning goals.  He’s a solid role player as a rookie and will likely improve as he gets his feet wet in his first playoff experience. 

He scored his 1st goal quickly and added over 20 more in his rookie year.

Sean Couturier – Making the team unexpectedly out of camp, Couturier was drafted in the 1^st round this past summer and made a great impression with Philly very fast.  He played a big part on their penalty kill and was the 2^nd best takeaway guy on the team to Giroux, despite getting much less ice time.  The Pens will have a chance to take advantage of him in the faceoff circle, where he only won at a 47% rate despite taking over 800 faceoffs this season.  At 6’3, he doesn’t even weigh 200 lbs, so the Pens will want to use their big bodies on him heavily to wear him down.

The Talented Agitators:

Scott Hartnell – He led the team in hits, was 2^nd in shots, and led the team with 37 goals in an all-star season.  We all hate Scott Hartnell.  He’s a dbag, but he knows how to succeed.  Hartnell is an expert at getting under the opposition’s skin and placing himself around the crease at all times, where he is very adept with his stick.  Pittsburgh will have to avoid playing his mind games and make sure he doesn’t get in Fleury’s way.

Wayne Simmonds – Simmonds is just a true hockey player in every sense.  He can hit, has a scoring touch, and will do everything necessary to win a game.  He has a great hockey sense, especially around the net, and he isn’t afraid of getting involved with anyone.  Really, Simmonds is a blue collar guy that will get under your skin through goals and timely plays.  Keeping him to the outside and away from the front of the net will be paramount.

If you can't respect this, I can't respect you.

The Sometimes Idiotic Muscle:

Jody Shelley – Who knows if Shelley even touches the ice, but if he does he won’t be doing much.  He registered 1 point this season and is exists more as a preemptive strike than to do anything in the game.  Don’t worry yourself with this goon, any shift he takes in this series will be an opportunity for the Pens to make him look like a fool.

Zac Rinaldo – Rinaldo however, comes with a much better skating ability though far less brains in how he uses it.  He almost led the league in penalty minutes this year.  He will attempt to be a spark plug with big, though often borderline hits.  If he crosses the line, the Pens have to let him be punished and stick to their game.  Just like Hartnell, Rinaldo will try to draw their focus and distract them from playing systematic hockey.

Best part of the season?  Letang knocking over Hartnell,
who then high-sticked Rinaldo in the teeth.

The Annoying Energy: 

Eric Wellwood – Wellwood has had an impressive ability this season for elevating his game against the Penguins.  He is a very quick skater who did not play much during the season but has enough skill to warrant a look.  He was a +12 in just 24 games this season, posting 9 points and only averaging 10 minutes of ice time per game.  Think Joe Vitale with more of a scoring touch.

Brayden Schenn – Schenn is a kid with a very bright future as a former 1^st round pick in ’09 but for now he just plugs holes for the Flyers when necessary.  With depth up the middle already pretty strong, the Flyers use Schenn for about 13-14 minutes per game as a 3^rd line center.  He has a scoring touch, can play gritty (and crosscheck people in the back) and generally has a very versatile game to match his opponents.

Harry Zolnierczyk – Zolnierczyk is another energy type guy, though at a -11 on the season, the Flyers will refrain from using him much.  He is more of a throw away guy for smaller fights or short shifts to give the big guys a rest.  He only managed 6 points in 37 games and was mainly a liability when he couldn’t find his way to the penalty box.

The Points from the Point:

Kimmo Timonen – My best memory of TImonen will always be Kunitz trying to kill him back in 2009.  But more to the point, he’s a veteran defenseman that has made many playoff runs at this point and will keep this group calm and focused.  He has a solid shot from the point and won’t be intimidated by Pittsburgh’s skill. 

Keep your head up there Timonen.

Matt Carle – Carle has missed usual defensive Chris Pronger greatly this season, but he has survived well enough to still put together a strong season.  He has a great passing presence from the blue line and rushes pucks up through the neutral zone very well.  He is also very capable in his own end and quick to make slides for coverages.  He will be a big help to the Flyers PP as well as handling the 2^nd and 3^rd lines likely.

The Shut Down Men:

Braydon Coburn – Coburn does not receive enough credit for how strong he actually is defensively.  He can hold his ground against anyone and is very smart about his positioning, especially when covering around the crease.  He may give a little space to the Pens quicker forwards because he doesn’t want to get beat, so the Pens will have to try to exploit that with Dupuis and Sullivan especially.

Andreas Lilja – Lilja is already very familiar with the Pens and demonstrated it against them over the past week.  He knows how to play Malkin, like really knows how to do it.  Expect him to do his best to be physical on the Pens big 3 centers because I will tell you something, Lilja isn’t afraid of them after his time in Detroit.

Most priceless experience anyone on Philly could possibly have.

The New Comers:

Nicklas Grossmann – Grossmann was laughed at as a fix for the Flyers defense, but it turns out the kid can actually play.  He won’t do anything flashy, but he has good hockey sense in the defensive zone and generally knows to be in the right places.  His knee may still be sore from Vitale’s rage a couple of weeks ago, but Grossmann should hold his own just fine.

Pavel Kubina – Apparently we shouldn’t expect to see Kubina play.  He has been around the league a bit; he’s a big body with some skill, though he hasn’t looked strong for the Flyers at all since arriving from Tampa Bay.  There are rumors flying that he will be healthy scratched for Game 1, so I guess he doesn’t fit in quite as well as Holmgren wanted.

The Wild Card:

Marc-Andre Bourdon – Bourdon has a lot of talent though I’m not sure he is quite ripe for playoff hockey against the best offensive team in the league yet.  The skills are there, but the Pens forwards should be able to have their way with him just based on their vision and speed.  If he plays wiser than his age though, he may be a big equalizer in depth for the Flyers.

The Injured:

Chris Pronger, James van Riemsdyk and Andrej Meszaros – Pronger is out for the season and the latter 2 are not expected to be back in for this series, so don’t worry about it.  Be very happy actually as Meszaros is a veteran on that blue line and JVR had a great playoff run last year.  The Pens are lucky to not be facing these 3 as the Flyers will be tough already.  Pronger may have made them the Cup favorite.

The Crazy Russian Goalies:

Ilya Bryzgalov – No one knows what to expect out of Bryzgalov with the humongous universe on his shoulders.  He has faltered in the playoffs before with Phoenix, but has also been quite successful with Anaheim.  Really, you can flip a coin to determine what he will provide for the Flyers.  The key will be getting into his head…if the Pens can play some games with his head, mainly around the crease and taking surprising shots, Bryz may be out early.

HUMONGOUS 

Sergei Bobrovsky – Bobrovsky FINALLY lost at Consol after some great games there over the past 2 seasons.  He is a solid goaltender when facing a heavy workload, but seems to struggle a little more in light games.  I don’t expect to see him unless Bryz falters multiple times, but if he does come in, his confidence will be the key.  Beat him early and he will falter, but he definitely gets better as the game goes on.