Goal Assessment: Game 39 - Pens 2 Rangers 1 (SO)

Link to Game 39 Postgame Thoughts: The PensNation



+/- Assessment

1st Goal For (Jokinen): + for

• Dupuis – throws the puck behind the net for Kunitz
• Kunitz – settles the puck down and feeds Jokinen at the left circle
• Jokinen – beats Lundqvist high, glove side

1st Goal Against (Nash): - for

• Dupuis – just getting out of the box for his unsportsmanlike conduct penalty **I realize the penalty was iffy at best, but he’s still the reason it’s 5 on 4**
• Sutter – loses the faceoff cleanly in the defensive zone

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Goal Assessment: Game 38 - Rangers 6 Pens 1

Link to Game 38 Thoughts:  The PensNation



+/- Assessment

1st Goal Against (Boyle): - for

• Kunitz – puts the team on the PK with a slashing penalty
• Murray – fails to clear the puck at his feet
• Engelland – fails to clear the puck at his feet
• Dupuis – gets a piece of Richards’ shot but it glances off of him and bounces past Fleury

2nd Goal Against (McDonagh): - for

• Glass – failed chip to clear the puck on the boards, then doesn’t attack the puck carrier later
• Morrow – failed chip to clear the puck on the opposite side boards
• Murray – gets drawn completely out of position which causes confusion with Niskanen
• Niskanen – backs away from the net and McDonagh instead of trying to block the shot or get in his way

3rd Goal Against (Clowe): - for

• Orpik – loses the puck to Stepan’s forecheck without any attempt to clear it or pass it away

4th Goal Against (Brassard): - for

• Malkin – in the penalty box for slashing

1st Goal For (Dupuis): + for

• Despres – feeds the puck up to Dupuis in the neutral zone
• Morrow – runs interference to let the puck get to Bortuzzo at the point
• Bortuzzo – takes a long shot from the point that creates a rebound
• Dupuis – dumps the puck in around the boards, eventually puts the rebound past Lundqvist

5th Goal Against (Clowe): - for

• Cooke – in the penalty box for tripping
• Sutter – doesn’t rotate down quickly enough to get a strong stick on Clowe

6th Goal Against (Moore): - for

• Vitale – loses a puck battle on the boards
• Cooke – doesn’t get out to his man at the point and deflects the puck on its way to Fleury
• (also a soft goal for Fleury to let up)

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Goal Assessment: Game 29 - Pens 3 Rangers 0

Link for Game 29 Thoughts:  The PensNation

+/- Assessment

1st Goal For (Bennett): + for

• Kennedy – passes the puck up the right boards from the defensive blue line
• Jeffrey – chips it along to Bennett into the offensive zone
• Bennett – takes a quick shot that beats Lundqvist on the far side

2nd Goal For (Kennedy): + for

• Letang – good keep on the powerplay when the Rangers almost block the puck out, passes around with Martin and Bennett
• Martin – quarterbacks the powerplay and keeps passing from the point
• Bennett – rotates around with Martin and Letang at the points to keep the Rangers back
• Sutter – draws two defenders next to him at the crease
• Kennedy – one-times a pass from Letang past Lundqvist on the far side

3rd Goal For (Dupuis): + for

• Orpik – stands up Richards with the puck to force a turnover
• Cooke – retrieves the loose puck and passes it up to Jeffrey
• Jeffrey – passes across to Dupuis on a 2 on 1
• Dupuis – waits til Lundqvist goes down, takes the puck to his backhand, and scores

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Penguins Shut Out Rangers, Fans Back Away from Ledges

Main Storylines:

• The Penguins claimed Zach Boychuk (will wear #17) off of waivers from Carolina.  Boychuk has 18 points in 73 games.  They also placed Matt Niskanen on IR to make room for the move.
• Robert Bortuzzo will get into the lineup for the first time this season.  Ben Lovejoy is a healthy scratch.
• Tomas Vokoun starts in net.
• The Pens will be using an old new look on the powerplay, shifting Evgeni Malkin back to the point and James Neal up to the slot.
• Former Penguin watch: The Rangers will have Rupp, Asham, and, though you never saw him in Pittsburgh, Benn Ferriero in the lineup
• The 3rd line of Cooke-Sutter-Kennedy is reunited and Dustin Jeffrey joins Malkin’s wing.

Result:

Pens 3  Rangers 0

Goals:  Malkin (2) from Despres, Letang

            Neal (5) (PP) from Crosby, Malkin

            Despres (1) from Dupuis, Adams

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442569

Stats:

Vokoun says no for 1 of 28 times.

• Tomas Vokoun recorded his 49th career shutout, recording 28 saves.  Per ESPN, Vokoun is the only goalie entering this season with at least 4 shutouts in every season since the ’05-’06 season
• Sidney Crosby led the team with 6 shots
• Robert Bortuzzo played 12:11 in his debut.  Paul Martin was the leader at 26:23, Craig Adams had only 9:33 (6:57 at even strength, the rest on PK)
• Evgeni Malkin continued his faceoff problems by going 2 for 8.  Meanwhile, Crosby went 16 for 28.

The Good:

Hard work and pure effort from Glass

• Tomas Vokoun:  The number one star of the night made his 28 saves look easy as he recorded his 49th career shutout.  Anyone watching Vokoun through 3 starts has to admit he brings about a calming veteran presence and poise to the crease.  Just as in his previous 2 starts, Vokoun demonstrated perfect positioning and simply dealt with the game as it came to him.  Can’t argue with perfection on the night!
• Tanner Glass:  Glass only played roughly 10 minutes, with 3 of that on the penalty kill, but his limited TOI was quite possibly the most productive minutes of the night for the Penguins.  Glass was a force on the PK as he pressured the Rangers blue liners and he also managed to draw two penalties as well.  It was a perfect 4th liner game for Glass and then some.
• Simon Despres:  Despres certainly suffered through some growing pains in this game with a hooking penalty, a couple turnovers, and some weak clears, but he made up for it with offensive poise that left everyone’s jaw dropping.  It began with his set up of Malkin on the 1st goal of the game and ended with a beautiful backhand goal on a breakaway to ice the game at 3-0.  Overall Despres was still a little inconsistent but showed tremendous change as the game continued on.  He became a completely different player as his confidence grew with each shift and demonstrated significant potential to handle the puck and also separate opposing forwards from the puck.
• James Neal:  Aside from the beautiful deflection Neal had for a powerplay goal, he really earned this spot through superb backchecking and forechecking.  I didn’t have Neal marked for a single negative thing all game as he simply skated hard at both ends of the ice and was careful with the puck.  The interference penalty he drew didn’t hurt his cause either.  One thing to note is that Neal played 18:41 in the game, with 8:14 of that on the powerplay to help his case.
• Penalty Kill:  The PK went 4 for 4 and looked much more active and aggressive than they did against the Islanders.  Orpik and Engelland worked to clear out the crease and the forwards chased the Rangers to the blue line…and by that I mean the Rangers’ blue line.  Puck pursuit and support was excellent as the Rangers never had a chance to fully set up their powerplay. 

The Bad:

• Kris Letang:  Letang played a solid defensive game in his own end.  However, that’s not his only talent on the ice and he was quite disappointing on the offensive side of the rink.  He had multiple turnovers on the powerplay and seemed to struggle with pass/shoot decision in general.  Two of his giveaways occurred when he had an open shooting lane but opted to pass.  Meanwhile, two of his shots were blocked easily by Rangers.  Letang’s pass/shoot decisions will have to improve for the powerplay to truly improve.

The Ugly:

• Boarding Penalties:  There is still much confusion on what is considered boarding this year and Crosby getting hit directly in the numbers did not help matters.  We have seen boarding called for everything from clean shoulder hits to players actually drilling someone in the back into the boards.  If the NHL is serious about making this a safer game, they may want to get everyone on the same page.
• Powerplay:  It was nice to see the powerplay get a goal but the unit still struggled as a whole, mostly with puck management and decision making.  A change in personnel setup is not going to be enough to erase turnovers at the points and forced passes.  Even Neal’s PP goal wasn’t a true setup of the powerplay – it was great awareness and skill from Malkin, Crosby, and Neal.  The Pens looked ripe for a shorthanded goal against vs the Rangers and I can’t say I was impressed with Malkin at the point.  As usual, the team needs to just simplify and get the puck on net to get this unit going.

+/- Assessment:

Pictured: Joy, confidence, and the rising stock
of Simon Despres

• 1st GF (Malkin): + for Letang (puck retrieval, pass), Despres (pass), Malkin (goal)
• 2nd GF (Neal): + for Malkin (carried puck up, pass to Sid), Crosby (pass), Neal (deflection goal)
• 3rd GF (Despres): + for Adams (flicks puck up), Dupuis (races to puck, pass), Despres (goal)
• Season +/-: http://www.crosbyftw.com/p/plusminus-spreadsheet.html

Thoughts:

Bortuzzo survived his season debut with flying colors

• Powerplay:  The PP went 1 for 6 but I’m not sold on this setup still.  If there is one man at the point, it should be Letang instead of Geno.  If there are two players on the blue line, make it Martin and Letang with Crosby, Neal, and Malkin up front.  Is there anything Kunitz can do that Crosby can’t?  Martin has shown fantastic puck movement so far this season and might be a much safer and steadying option on the powerplay.
• Lines:  Dustin Jeffrey looked much better than anyone else has on the 2nd line and even had some nifty passing plays with Malkin.  The two clearly had more chemistry than Tangradi or Kennedy had on that line.  The third line remained quiet, though much better defensively with TK on the line and there were a couple offensive chances for them.  The 4th line was pretty much perfect all around with Glass, Vitale, and Adams.  There is really no reason to change the lineup for Saturday, but it will be interesting to see when newcomer Boychuk gets his chance.
• Defensive Pairings:  Orpik-Martin was solid as usual (as of this season) and Letang provided great support for Despres.  The third pair of Engelland - Bortuzzo had some issues clearing the puck at times but received enough support from the forwards to succeed.  Bortuzzo looked more comfortable than I was expecting after sitting the first 6 games and certainly played well enough for another game.  It appeared that the Rangers were targeting him heavily with their physical game, but he stayed the course and never looked rattled throughout.
• Goalie “Controversy”:  There is no goalie controversy.  Vokoun is a superb backup and will start at least a third of the games.  He’s a great calming influence and I imagine he will also mentor Fleury quite well.  Make no mistake though, Fleury has more potential, more talent, and is the unquestioned starter of this team.  Vokoun may play more right now since he’s hot, but this is still Fleury’s team, as it should be.  If Fleury learns a bit of Vokoun’s poise and positioning, his athleticism will put him over the top to be a Top 5 goalie in the league. (That is still a big if though.)
• Difference from the Isles Game:  The biggest difference I noticed immediately was the amount of support the forwards gave the defensemen to clear the puck and for breakouts.  Instead of having one forward lingering at the blue line and two further into the neutral zone, there was usually 1 forward in the D zone, 1 at the blue line, and 1 at the red line.  This gave the defense additional help in their zone and also provided for a natural progression of chipping the puck up to get to the offensive zone.  When puck management is a problem, additional forward support can be the rescue option.  This theory worked to perfection against the Rangers.  As you noticed, once the giveaways and turnovers decrease, this team is very difficult to play against.  Credit to Bylsma and the coaching staff for making that adjustment, even if it’s temporary.

Pens Record: 4-3-0, 8 pts

Next Game:  2/2 vs NJ, 1pm

Second Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Semifinals

Well, after going 2 for 8 in the first round, you can probably just guess the opposite of my picks and do quite well.  I was right with the Rangers in 7 and the Devils winning in the first round.  Despite my awful first round record, I shall continue on and try to predict the second round just in hopes that I can accidentally look smart to everyone!  Weird fact going into the second round: there is one of each seed, 1-8, left in the playoffs.  Neat.

*PS – Though I am posting these after the Conference Semis are already underway, I’m sticking with the picks I made before the first game started…which is also why I look even more stupid now as I picked the Preds in 5.

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  In the regular season, the Blues finished 21^st in scoring and the Kings finished 29^th.  In the playoffs, the Blues are currently 4^th and the Kings are 8^th.  Despite the difference in rankings, I am going to give the edge to the Kings on potential.  They added Jeff Carter late in the season and faced a tougher goalie in the first round.  If Carter can get on the scoreboard, the Kings will boast more scoring depth than the Blues.  Edge – Los Angeles 

Defense:  Both teams have strong defensive systems and great young defenders.  The Blues are led by youngsters Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk.  Meanwhile, the Kings have a strong mix of young stars like Drew Doughty and playoff veterans like Rob Scuderi.  The Blues finished 1^st in defense in the regular season and are currently 1^st in the playoffs.  The Kings finished 2^nd in the regular season and are currently tied for 1^st in the playoffs.  The Blues forwards generally show more defensive prowess though.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Brian Elliott has a 1.37 GAA and .949 Save % , while Jonathan Quick has a 1.59 GAA and .953 Save % in the playoffs.  Both goalies finished in the Top 5 for most stats in the regular season as well.  Quick is a Vezina candidate, and Elliott probably would have been if he had more games played.  The longer history of success for Quick is really the only difference maker in this matchup.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have great penalty kills due to their defensive prowess, but LA struggles on the PP while St. Louis was clicking at over 30% in the first round.  That difference could be huge in this series when goals are hard to come by.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock has a Stanley Cup ring.  Darryl Sutter has quite a few first round exits, making this abnormal territory for him.  Edge – St. Louis

Result:  Kings in 6.  I can’t pick against Jonathan Quick basically.  It’s that simple.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #4 Nashville Predators

Offense:  Nashville quietly had a Top 10 offense this season and is currently 5^th in the playoffs.  Phoenix’s offense struggled in the bottom half of the league all season, but looked quite capable against the Blackhawks in the 1^st round as they finished the round ranked 3^rd.  Both teams get by without “big name” scorers in their lineup.  The Preds benefit greatly from having more offensive help from their blue line though.  Edge - Nashville

Defense:  Both teams were in the top 10 in defense this season (Nashville 10^th, Phoenix 5^th).  Nashville tends to depend more on their big defensive guys in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter while Phoenix focuses more on a team defensive system.  Both teams also shut down high powered offenses in Detroit and Chicago respectively in the first round.  I can’t go against Shea Weber’s beard out of fear.  Edge - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekka Rinne vs. Mike Smith.  Both goalies are Top 10 in pretty much every stat, they had similar stats in the playoffs, and they both made arguments for a Vezina nomination (which Rinne received and Smith did not.)  Smith was the hotter goalie going into the playoffs while Rinne looked shaky at times, so that’s the kicker to me.  Edge - Phoenix

Special Teams:  The teams were close on the PK, with Nashville 8^th and Phoenix 10^th.  The big decisive factor is that Nashville was 1^st on the PP in the regular season while Phoenix was 29^th.  First round numbers don’t matter for that kind of a difference.  Edge - Nashville

Coaching:  Nashville’s Barry Trotz and Phoenix’s Dave Tippett are both amazing coaches when it comes to getting the most out of their teams through discipline and hard work.  Neither has been all that successful in the playoffs until this year though.  I believe Tippett is working with less talent and has taken his team just as far as Nashville, so I favor him ever so slightly in this matchup.  Edge - Phoenix

Result:  Preds in 5.  Nashville has already exorcized a demon in getting past Detroit in stunning fashion.  The Preds have built their team up specifically for this playoff run, and Phoenix just won’t have the depth to handle it.

#1 New York Rangers vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Both teams had very similar offensive performances in both the regular season and the playoffs so far.  The Rangers may have a stronger set of 4 lines that can put the puck in the net, but the biggest raw talent on either team belongs to Washington with Ovechkin.  Edge - Washington

Defense:  The Capitals have finally learned how to play playoff hockey with a defense-first system that the whole team has committed to, even Alexander Semin.  The Rangers have always played a very strong defensive system, with an emphasis on shot blocking and protecting Henrik Lundqvist.  The Rangers defense is strong through all 3 pairings, while the Caps don’t necessarily have a standout defensive defenseman right now.  Edge – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist earned nominations for the Vezina and Hart trophies this week for his fantastic regular season play.  Meanwhile, Braden Holtby, still wet behind the ears, has entered the playoff fray as a young unknown who has come out of nowhere to take the league by storm.  While hot goalies are great in the playoffs, they fizzle out eventually.  Edge – New York

Special Teams:  Neither team had a strong PP in the regular season, but the Rangers at least sent out the 5^th best PK unit in the league, led by their defense.  Meanwhile, the Caps have the 2^nd best PK in the playoffs, though it should be discounted based on the fact that their 1^st round opponent, Boston, has been awful on the powerplay in recent playoff history.  All in all, there’s no real winner in this matchup.  Edge - Even

Coaching:  Dale Hunter has had a ton of success in the OHL, limited success in his playoff runs as a player, and is coaching in the NHL for the first time.  John Tortorella has already won a Stanley Cup and knows how to press the buttons of his team quite well by now.  Experience is a big factor in the playoffs.  Edge – New York

Result:  Rangers in 6.  Defense wins championships, and while the Caps have shown a strong new commitment to defense, they don’t have the personnel to handle it quite like the Rangers do.  Defensive depth wins this low scoring series.

#5 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  The Flyers ranked 2^nd in offense in the regular season and had a monster 1^st round, crushing Pittsburgh with their offensive depth.  It doesn’t even matter what New Jersey can do (average offense if you are curious).  Edge - Philadelphia

Defense:  Philadelphia’s defense was nothing special in the first round.  Meanwhile New Jersey’s was a bit better, but not spectacular either.  There was a big difference in the regular season between these two however, as New Jersey had a top 10 defense and Philadelphia was in the bottom 10.   Edge – New Jersey

Goaltending:  In recent history, neither Bryzgalov nor Brodeur has looked sharp in the playoffs.  Beyond recent history, Brodeur has had just a little bit of playoff success (multiple Stanley Cups are impressive I guess).  Bryzgalov can’t be trusted as he didn’t look strong in the Pittsburgh series either.  Edge – New Jersey

Special Teams:  Philadelphia had a top 5 powerplay in the regular season and absolutely destroyed Pittsburgh (who had the 3^rd ranked PK in the regular season) in the 1^st round, scoring on over half of their chances.  New Jersey had the best PK in the regular season, but only killed at a 69% rate in the playoffs.  With PK’s suffering in the playoffs, Philadelphia’s powerplay gets a huge advantage.  Edge - Philadelphia

Coaching:  Peter Laviolette pretty much crushed Dan Bylsma in coaching strategy and adjustments in the first round.  He has gone deep in the playoffs before and has a Stanley Cup ring from his time with the Hurricanes.  Peter DeBoer is currently on his first ever playoff run in the NHL as a head coach, after coaching the team he just beat (Florida) to 3 playoff-less seasons.  Edge - Philadelphia

Result:  Devils in 7.  Despite Philadelphia having a majority of the advantages, which will win them some games, I would put my money on Brodeur making a strong push in what could possibly be his last year in the NHL.  Bryzgalov just isn’t trustworthy enough for me.

First Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Quarterfinals

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  There is no question on this one.  LA’s offense has been downright anemic all season and savior Jeff Carter is nursing an ankle injury to start the playoffs.  Vancouver, though without Daniel Sedin to start, still boasts impressive offensive depth.  Edge - Vancouver

Defense:  Both teams have a great amount of depth on defense and veterans that have been to the finals before.  I have a little more faith in the Canucks though because of their experience and more importantly, they have demonstrated the ability to perform at clutch times.  Edge - Vancouver

Goaltending:  Roberto Luongo will be the headcase story of the playoffs.  Jonathan Quick will be a Vezina nominee and might get a Hart nomination as well.  Easy.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have a great PK, but Vancouver gets help from their top 5 powerplay while Los Angeles continues with their anemic scoring.  Edge - Vancouver

Coaching:  Alain Vigenault is on a mission to get the Canucks one more win than last season to get them a Cup while Darryl Sutter is still trying to figure out which buttons to push at which times for LA.  Edge - Vancouver

Misc:  The Canucks enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NHL.  LA entered the last week with a chance to clinch the division but blew it against a division rival.  Edge - Vancouver

Result:  Vancouver in 7.  Despite almost everything going Vancouver’s way, I believe in Jonathan Quick this much that he can take this series to the brink.  Quick has put the Kings on his shoulders all season, but it’ll come down to the clutch goal they can’t produce as Vancouver wins out in the end.

 

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks

Offense:  Whether it’s a product of systems or talent levels, San Jose certainly has the better offense in this matchup and more pure offensive talent with guys like Marleau, Pavelski.  Edge – San Jose

Defense:  Ken Hitchock knows how to get a team to play strong on the defensive end and he has turned the Blues into a gritty, hard-check team that will work hard in their own end.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott combined to win the Jennings trophy for lowest GAA and have combined for 15 shutouts this year.  No one beats this combination.  Edge – St. Louis

Special Teams:  San Jose quietly managed to put together polar opposites of the 2^nd best PP with the 2^nd worst PK.  Meanwhile, the Blues were on the low end of the PP list but higher on the PK.  In the playoffs, I’m siding with defense.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock, the likely Jack Adams winner from the Blues, vs. Todd McLellan, who consistently underachieves with the Sharks.  Edge – St. Louis.

Misc:  St. Louis is lacking playoff experience through most of their roster aside from a few veterans here and there.  San Jose finally enters the playoffs as an underdog, though that is after being Cup favorites before the season started.  The lack of pressure may help San Jose.  Edge – San Jose

Result:  San Jose in 7.  The Blues keep their opponents to low scoring close games, which may work frequently during the season, but leaves a lot to chance and bounces in a 7 game series.  The Sharks are talented enough to capitalize on those opportunities.  Here’s my upset special for the first round.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks

Offense:  Kane, Sharp, maybe a healthy Toews, and Keith vs. Vrbata, Whitney, Doan, Yandle…yeah this isn’t a tough one in my opinion.  Advantage - Chicago

Defense:  For the lack of offensive depth the Coyotes may have, the make up for it through a systematic defensive style that Dave Tippett could probably get 3 year olds to master.  Chicago has a strong blueline, but they are more prone to break downs than Phoenix.  Advantage - Phoenix

Goaltending:  Mike Smith ended the season with a 3 game shutout streak in his last for.  Chicago keeps bouncing back between Crawford and Emery as neither has been all that dependable this season.  Advantage - Phoenix

Special Teams:  Both teams have low-end powerplays despite the offensive talent on the rosters.  Phoenix has a great PK with their goaltending and style, while Chicago fails on that stat as well.  Advantage - Phoenix

Coaching:  Dave Tippett has been a great coach for the Coyotes and has installed a system that keeps defense at the forefront.  Joe Quineville though, he’s been there, he’s won the Cup, he knows how to handle the next 2 months.  Advantage - Chicago

Misc:  Much of this series will come to experience.  Phoenix still does not have a lot of playoff experience, and while Smith has been a solid goalie, he is untested as well.  Chicago has been through this and they know what to do.  Advantage - Chicago

Result:  Chicago in 5.  Though defense wins championships, I don’t see Phoenix having an impenetrable defense for this Blackhawks team.  Both teams enter the playoffs hot, and ultimately, I pick Chicago based on their experience and pure skill up front.  Also, I just don’t believe in Mike Smith in the playoffs yet.

#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings

Offense:  Both teams finished in the top 10 in goals this year with Detroit 7^th and Nashville 8^th.  While Nashville has made some nice additions with Radulov and Fisher over the past 2 years, I still can’t get over the Red Wings’ pure skill.  Advantage - Detroit

Defense:  Both teams were close in goals allowed as well, with Detroit edging it out yet again.  The Wings defense has been there, but I do have some concern about their consistency.  I’m picking Weber, Suter, and Nashville’s young D to be very hungry for a win this series.  Advantage - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekke Rinne vs. Jimmy Howard is an all-star game matchup.  When healthy, Howard was playing as a top 3 goalie in the NHL this year.  Rinne had a “down” year in comparison to some of the Vezina candidate, but he’s still a top 5 goalie.  Advantage: Even

Special Teams:  Nashville had the top PP in the league (which I had not known and am now shocked by) and a top 10 PK.  Detroit was middle of the pack with both units.  Advantage - Nashville

Coaching:  Both of these coaches are great.  Mike Babcock has demonstrated it through the playoffs year after year and Barry Trotz somehow keeps Nashville playing above what their roster looks like every year.  They are both Jack Adams candidates on a yearly basis even if they don’t get the press.  In the playoffs though, you can’t bet against Babcock.  Advantage - Detroit

Misc:  Detroit faltered down the stretch and gave up their chance at home ice, where they play drastically better than on the road.  Nashville finally enters a series with the Wings as the favorites.  Advantage - Nashville

Result:  Detroit in 6.  I think this is the last big run for the aging Wings and they know it.  This will be a last gasp for Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk as age starts wearing on them with injuries.  The problem for Nashville is that a last gasp from Detroit is pretty much the full attack of a normal team.

Eastern Conference

#1 New York Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators

Offense:  The Rangers have gritty depth, but the Senators have a lot of speed up front and use it very well.  Norris candidate Erik Karlsson also adds quite a bit of offensive punch from the blueline.  Advantage - Ottawa

Defense:  The Rangers boast a very impressive 3 pairings at D, where all 3 are capable of playing against a 1^st line.  Ottawa…well they are still learning how to play defense in many ways as Karlsson even faltered with it down the stretch.  Advantage – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist.  Doesn’t matter who Ottawa has (Craig Anderson).  Advantage – New York

Special Teams:  Both teams have their offensive and defensive strengths pour into their special teams in an exact manner.  Ottawa is stronger on the PP but weak on the PK.  New York had a top 5 PK but had a very weak PP.  Ottawa’s PP isn’t so great that it is overbearing though.  Advantage – New York

Coaching:  The Senators’ Paul MacLean has done an amazing job as a first year coach.  Personally, I had this team nowhere close to the playoffs.  John Tortorella meanwhile is downright crazy, though he knows how to get results and he does have a Cup as well.  That last aspect is the biggest to me, MacLean is a rookie for the second time this season.  Advantage – New York

Misc:  Both teams slowed down as the season finished up, but the difference is New York could relax as the #1 seed while Ottawa almost slipped out of the playoffs.  Advantage – New York

Result:  New York in 7.  I think Ottawa is simply the type of team that will give the Rangers trouble due to their quickness.  But much like a gnat or fly, the Rangers will swat at it in annoyance for a little before finally landing a killer blow.  The Rangers finish it off in the end.

#2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Boston had the #2 offense in the league, but Washington had a cold Ovechkin and an injured Backstrom to deal with for much of the year.  Despite Boston’s depth, Washington has more pure firepower when healthy and focused in my opinion.  Advantage - Washington

Defense:  Starting with Zdeno Chara (not a bad start, right?), Boston has a sizeable defense that can hold opponents to the outside and keep them out of the crease.  Washington’s defense has much less experience and doesn’t necessarily have the size to match up well here.  Advantage - Boston

Goaltending:  Washington is having all kinds of injury issues at goalie, as Braden Holtby steps to the forefront with Vokoun and Neuvirth nursing injuries.  Boston has Tim Thomas.  Yeah…  Advantage - Boston

Special Teams:  Both teams have middling powerplays but Boston comes out on top on the penalty kill as long as Chara is out there to dictate the pace of the other team’s powerplay.  Advantage - Boston

Coaching:  The Caps haven’t completely bought into Dale Hunter’s style it seems, and I’m not sure Hunter has either.  Claude Julien won the Cup last year, so I think he’s just a little more confident heading into this series.  Advantage - Boston

Misc:  There will be much talk about Tim Thomas being uncomfortable in the DC area but I can’t see him caring very much.  Stanley Cup Winners don’t go very far the next year historically, but Washington has been lost all season and is lucky to be here right now.  Advantage - Boston

Result:  Boston in 5.  The goaltending matchup is too much to overcome for Washington and Chara should be able to handle the Caps top line with his 90 foot wingspan.

#3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  Florida turned out to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but lucked into the #3 seed by playing in a flat out awful division.  Meanwhile, the Devils got big bounce back years from Kovalchuk and Parise to give Brodeur some support for once.  Advantage – New Jersey

Defense:  The Panthers are one of the rare teams that entered the playoffs allowing more goals than they scored.  New Jersey isn’t the trapping team of the previous decade, but they still know how to play good enough defense over there.  Advantage – New Jersey

Goaltending:  Martin Brodeur may be old, but he can still play the game.  Florida will be relying on a possible mix of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen.  My money is not two goalies that would probably be backups around half the league right now.  Advantage – New Jersey

Special Teams:  One thing the Panthers did do well with this season was their powerplay, which scored a majority of their timely goals this season.  However, they counteracted it with one of the worst PKs in the game.  New Jersey on the other hand has the best PK, almost stopping teams at a 90% rate and an average PP.  Advantage – New Jersey

Coaching:  Kevin Dineen has done a wonderful job for Florida in helping them win their division and make the playoffs for the first time in a decade.  Meanwhile, NJ’s coach, Peter DeBoer, was the Panthers previous coach.  Think there is a revenge factor there?  Advantage – New Jersey

Misc:  Brodeur knows this might be his last run and he’ll leave it all out on the ice in this series.  Florida seems to be entering a little wide-eyed and surprised to be here.  Advantage – New Jersey

Result:  New Jersey in 4.  If you’re surprised by that after my analysis, I’m not sure how you read this far down.

Last, but certainly not least:

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers

Offense:  Two of the top 3 offenses in the league this year, this is just a matchup of offensive juggernauts.  The amount of skill is unreal on both sides between Malkin, Giroux, Crosby, Hartnell (relax, it has to be said).  Both teams have 3^rd and 4^th lines that can score as well.  It’s impossible to bet against Crosby, Malkin, Staal when healthy though.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Defense:  Both defenses have been rather inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes looking unbeatable and sometimes looking like they don’t belong in the NHL.  The Pens seem to have some trouble clearing out the crease in front of Fleury while the Flyers have no problem putting the body on people.  Advantage - Philadelphia

Goaltending:  In the regular season, Fleury demonstrated Vezina potential and Bryzgalov went on a crazy hot streak as the playoff race came to a head.  In the playoffs, Fleury has been there; Bryzgalov has been there and looked awful.  Advantage - Penguins

Special Teams:  Both teams had the exact same powerplay success rate, 19.7%.  The penalty kills differ vastly though as the Pens finished 3^rd in the NHL and the Flyers were in the middle of the pack.  Advantage – Pittsburgh, but this largely depends on the goaltending for the PK.

Coaching:  Dan Bylsma has faced some adversity in the playoffs since the last time he dealt with the Flyers in the postseason.  He has had to learn a lot about his team through this year and seems to have a decent handle on them.  Laviolette is masterful in motivating his team.  His timeout usage seems to always propel them to a win and he knows what buttons to push.  Pens fans won’t like this.  Advantage - Even

Misc:  The Flyers had a huge chip on their shoulder coming into this series, simply hating and wanting to beat the Pens for the first time in the playoffs as the core of these rosters are built.  One of the worst things they could have done was put a chip on the shoulder of the Pens with that disaster brawl at the end of the game a week and a half ago.  Grittiness may be a disadvantage depending on the refs, who will surely be on alert.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Result:  Pittsburgh in 6.  The Flyers are certainly a team that scares me, but I believe the refs will call it tight early and that will help the Pens keep focus while Philly tries to distract them.  Also, Fleury trumps Bryzgalov in my head every way I play it out.  My unsung hero for this series:  Craig Adams will be huge with a key goal or 2; he’ll be big on the PK, and some big hits will make him a key factor in this series.

Torts Angry, Pens Win and Clinch 4th!

Main Storylines:

- The Pens get to face the Rangers without Lundqvist for the 2^nd straight game as this one is meaningless to NYR and Lundqvist wants to rest a sore arm

A day off to help him work that "rugged" look.

- A win here will clinch 4^th in the conference and home ice advantage in the 1^st round for the Pens

- The Pens are sitting some big guys tonight: Niskanen (upper body), Sullivan (lower body) and Neal (lower body).  Dustin Jeffrey still can’t crack the lineup though

Result:

Pens  5  Rangers  2

Goals:  Kunitz (25) from Letang, Malkin

            Kennedy (11) from Staal, Michalek

            Park (7) from Dupuis, Tangradi

            Malkin (49) from Kunitz, Crosby

            Letang (10) (SH) from Staal

Stats/Milestones:

- Pascal Dupuis extended his career high point streak to 16 games.  It is a shame the regular season has only one more game because it would be wonderful to see how far he could push this continuously.

- Chris Kunitz recorded his 200^th career NHL assist on Malkin’s goal                   .

- Marc-Andre Fleury tried Barrasso’s franchise record for wins at 226.

- Evgeni Malkin hit a career high in points and now has 107.

The Good:

- Hey, a win over the Rangers is a win over the Rangers, no matter the circumstances.  Also, how fun is it to piss of John Tortorella off based on that postgame rant?

Whine Whine Whine

- The defense looked much better in this game than they had in the previous 2 weeks, though there is still work to do.  It’s a big step forward with the playoffs looming ever so close.

Evgeni Malkin – Malkin had gone quiet for a couple games and wasn’t playing bad, but also wasn’t being his enigmatic self.  Tonight he reverted back to the norm and appeared to have a jump in his step.  He scored goal #49 and based on his postgame interview, he will be gunning for 50 hard on Saturday.  As long as Geno stays healthy, life is good.

Marc-Andre Fleury – Fleury looked much better in this game than he had in the previous week, stopping 35 of 37 shots and making some very acrobatic saves like when he was on his hot streak.  He also finally got his franchise record-tying 226^th win on his 4^th try after that mark appeared to be getting into his head.  It’s great that Fleury got a game in like this before the playoffs started, and while I would expect him to start vs. Philly on Sat anyways, this puts less pressure on Bylsma to start him looking for a spark.

The Bad:

- For all the crap Tortorella said after the game, it’s funny that he didn’t mention his team had 6 powerplays and the Pens only had 1.  Mind you, they all came of different varieties.  The “hooking” penalty on Cooke was garbage as there was no hook and no one was held up either.  I have no clue how that was called.  Kunitz took 2 minors which is why I kept him off of the good list.  He’s gotta ease up on the stupid penalties he’s been taking in the 2^nd half.  Then you have the Orpik 5 min major…I’ll get to the in the next section. 

Deryk Engelland – Engelland was the only defenseman that slipped up more than a couple times as far as I could tell.  He missed Dubinsky on the Rangers first goal that tied the game and he had trouble with his slot coverage a few other times, but none of those resulted in a goal luckily.  I would like to see Engo use the body a little more in front since he is generally bigger than most guys he faces on the crease.  It will be a fine line for him to work through the playoffs with.

Engo knew that was on him..and knowing is half the battle.

The Ugly:

- Since I’m doing this so late, we all know Orpik didn’t get any extra penalties for his kneeing penalty (a 5 minute major and game misconduct).  The knee was definitely a dirty hit, he stuck it out though I highly doubt his intentions were to injure.  He was basically just trying to run interference for a guy about to get past him it looked like.  Personally, I would have been okay with the nominal $2,500 fine and lesson learned.  But I’ll certainly take less!

- Tortorella went CRAZY after the game and ranted about Crosby and Malkin being whiners, the organization being arrogant, and how Orpik’s hit was dirty and the Pens are a dirty team.  The NHL opted to fine him $20,000, most likely for the part where he implied that watching the league deal with Orpik would be comical.  Tortorella’s comments are generally ridiculous and overzealous, but they were smart.  No one has spoken about his team losing 5-2 or about his team at all.  He deflected all of the attention from his loss and probably got his team fired up as well.  I don’t believe he should have been fined for speaking his mind, but hey, whatever the NHL decides to do.

I assure you the Pens didn't want to see this either.

Thoughts:

- The playoffs are set for the Penguins, they clinched the 4^th seed and are locked into a 4-5 matchup with the Flyers.  Saturday’s game likely won’t be the chaos everyone is expecting.  Both teams know it’s the week after that matters and won’t want to risk injuries or suspensions.  Both also want to send a message with game play.  Expect a very tight game, but not as dirty as the media may suggest.

Pens Record: 50-25-6, 106 pts, 2^nd in the Atlantic, 4^th in the East

Next Game:  4/7 vs Phi, 4pm