Western Conference
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings
Offense: There is no question on this one. LA’s offense has been downright anemic all season and savior Jeff Carter is nursing an ankle injury to start the playoffs. Vancouver, though without Daniel Sedin to start, still boasts impressive offensive depth. Edge - Vancouver
Defense: Both teams have a great amount of depth on defense and veterans that have been to the finals before. I have a little more faith in the Canucks though because of their experience and more importantly, they have demonstrated the ability to perform at clutch times. Edge - Vancouver
Goaltending: Roberto Luongo will be the headcase story of the playoffs. Jonathan Quick will be a Vezina nominee and might get a Hart nomination as well. Easy. Edge – Los Angeles
Special Teams: Both teams have a great PK, but Vancouver gets help from their top 5 powerplay while Los Angeles continues with their anemic scoring. Edge - Vancouver
Coaching: Alain Vigenault is on a mission to get the Canucks one more win than last season to get them a Cup while Darryl Sutter is still trying to figure out which buttons to push at which times for LA. Edge - Vancouver
Misc: The Canucks enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NHL. LA entered the last week with a chance to clinch the division but blew it against a division rival. Edge - Vancouver
Result: Vancouver in 7. Despite almost everything going Vancouver’s way, I believe in Jonathan Quick this much that he can take this series to the brink. Quick has put the Kings on his shoulders all season, but it’ll come down to the clutch goal they can’t produce as Vancouver wins out in the end.
#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks
Offense: Whether it’s a product of systems or talent levels, San Jose certainly has the better offense in this matchup and more pure offensive talent with guys like Marleau, Pavelski. Edge – San Jose
Defense: Ken Hitchock knows how to get a team to play strong on the defensive end and he has turned the Blues into a gritty, hard-check team that will work hard in their own end. Edge – St. Louis
Goaltending: Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott combined to win the Jennings trophy for lowest GAA and have combined for 15 shutouts this year. No one beats this combination. Edge – St. Louis
Special Teams: San Jose quietly managed to put together polar opposites of the 2nd best PP with the 2nd worst PK. Meanwhile, the Blues were on the low end of the PP list but higher on the PK. In the playoffs, I’m siding with defense. Edge – St. Louis
Coaching: Ken Hitchcock, the likely Jack Adams winner from the Blues, vs. Todd McLellan, who consistently underachieves with the Sharks. Edge – St. Louis.
Misc: St. Louis is lacking playoff experience through most of their roster aside from a few veterans here and there. San Jose finally enters the playoffs as an underdog, though that is after being Cup favorites before the season started. The lack of pressure may help San Jose. Edge – San Jose
Result: San Jose in 7. The Blues keep their opponents to low scoring close games, which may work frequently during the season, but leaves a lot to chance and bounces in a 7 game series. The Sharks are talented enough to capitalize on those opportunities. Here’s my upset special for the first round.
#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks
Offense: Kane, Sharp, maybe a healthy Toews, and Keith vs. Vrbata, Whitney, Doan, Yandle…yeah this isn’t a tough one in my opinion. Advantage - Chicago
Defense: For the lack of offensive depth the Coyotes may have, the make up for it through a systematic defensive style that Dave Tippett could probably get 3 year olds to master. Chicago has a strong blueline, but they are more prone to break downs than Phoenix. Advantage - Phoenix
Goaltending: Mike Smith ended the season with a 3 game shutout streak in his last for. Chicago keeps bouncing back between Crawford and Emery as neither has been all that dependable this season. Advantage - Phoenix
Special Teams: Both teams have low-end powerplays despite the offensive talent on the rosters. Phoenix has a great PK with their goaltending and style, while Chicago fails on that stat as well. Advantage - Phoenix
Coaching: Dave Tippett has been a great coach for the Coyotes and has installed a system that keeps defense at the forefront. Joe Quineville though, he’s been there, he’s won the Cup, he knows how to handle the next 2 months. Advantage - Chicago
Misc: Much of this series will come to experience. Phoenix still does not have a lot of playoff experience, and while Smith has been a solid goalie, he is untested as well. Chicago has been through this and they know what to do. Advantage - Chicago
Result: Chicago in 5. Though defense wins championships, I don’t see Phoenix having an impenetrable defense for this Blackhawks team. Both teams enter the playoffs hot, and ultimately, I pick Chicago based on their experience and pure skill up front. Also, I just don’t believe in Mike Smith in the playoffs yet.
#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
Offense: Both teams finished in the top 10 in goals this year with Detroit 7th and Nashville 8th. While Nashville has made some nice additions with Radulov and Fisher over the past 2 years, I still can’t get over the Red Wings’ pure skill. Advantage - Detroit
Defense: Both teams were close in goals allowed as well, with Detroit edging it out yet again. The Wings defense has been there, but I do have some concern about their consistency. I’m picking Weber, Suter, and Nashville’s young D to be very hungry for a win this series. Advantage - Nashville
Goaltending: Pekke Rinne vs. Jimmy Howard is an all-star game matchup. When healthy, Howard was playing as a top 3 goalie in the NHL this year. Rinne had a “down” year in comparison to some of the Vezina candidate, but he’s still a top 5 goalie. Advantage: Even
Special Teams: Nashville had the top PP in the league (which I had not known and am now shocked by) and a top 10 PK. Detroit was middle of the pack with both units. Advantage - Nashville
Coaching: Both of these coaches are great. Mike Babcock has demonstrated it through the playoffs year after year and Barry Trotz somehow keeps Nashville playing above what their roster looks like every year. They are both Jack Adams candidates on a yearly basis even if they don’t get the press. In the playoffs though, you can’t bet against Babcock. Advantage - Detroit
Misc: Detroit faltered down the stretch and gave up their chance at home ice, where they play drastically better than on the road. Nashville finally enters a series with the Wings as the favorites. Advantage - Nashville
Result: Detroit in 6. I think this is the last big run for the aging Wings and they know it. This will be a last gasp for Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk as age starts wearing on them with injuries. The problem for Nashville is that a last gasp from Detroit is pretty much the full attack of a normal team.
Eastern Conference
#1 New York Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators
Offense: The Rangers have gritty depth, but the Senators have a lot of speed up front and use it very well. Norris candidate Erik Karlsson also adds quite a bit of offensive punch from the blueline. Advantage - Ottawa
Defense: The Rangers boast a very impressive 3 pairings at D, where all 3 are capable of playing against a 1st line. Ottawa…well they are still learning how to play defense in many ways as Karlsson even faltered with it down the stretch. Advantage – New York
Goaltending: Henrik Lundqvist. Doesn’t matter who Ottawa has (Craig Anderson). Advantage – New York
Special Teams: Both teams have their offensive and defensive strengths pour into their special teams in an exact manner. Ottawa is stronger on the PP but weak on the PK. New York had a top 5 PK but had a very weak PP. Ottawa’s PP isn’t so great that it is overbearing though. Advantage – New York
Coaching: The Senators’ Paul MacLean has done an amazing job as a first year coach. Personally, I had this team nowhere close to the playoffs. John Tortorella meanwhile is downright crazy, though he knows how to get results and he does have a Cup as well. That last aspect is the biggest to me, MacLean is a rookie for the second time this season. Advantage – New York
Misc: Both teams slowed down as the season finished up, but the difference is New York could relax as the #1 seed while Ottawa almost slipped out of the playoffs. Advantage – New York
Result: New York in 7. I think Ottawa is simply the type of team that will give the Rangers trouble due to their quickness. But much like a gnat or fly, the Rangers will swat at it in annoyance for a little before finally landing a killer blow. The Rangers finish it off in the end.
#2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals
Offense: Boston had the #2 offense in the league, but Washington had a cold Ovechkin and an injured Backstrom to deal with for much of the year. Despite Boston’s depth, Washington has more pure firepower when healthy and focused in my opinion. Advantage - Washington
Defense: Starting with Zdeno Chara (not a bad start, right?), Boston has a sizeable defense that can hold opponents to the outside and keep them out of the crease. Washington’s defense has much less experience and doesn’t necessarily have the size to match up well here. Advantage - Boston
Goaltending: Washington is having all kinds of injury issues at goalie, as Braden Holtby steps to the forefront with Vokoun and Neuvirth nursing injuries. Boston has Tim Thomas. Yeah… Advantage - Boston
Special Teams: Both teams have middling powerplays but Boston comes out on top on the penalty kill as long as Chara is out there to dictate the pace of the other team’s powerplay. Advantage - Boston
Coaching: The Caps haven’t completely bought into Dale Hunter’s style it seems, and I’m not sure Hunter has either. Claude Julien won the Cup last year, so I think he’s just a little more confident heading into this series. Advantage - Boston
Misc: There will be much talk about Tim Thomas being uncomfortable in the DC area but I can’t see him caring very much. Stanley Cup Winners don’t go very far the next year historically, but Washington has been lost all season and is lucky to be here right now. Advantage - Boston
Result: Boston in 5. The goaltending matchup is too much to overcome for Washington and Chara should be able to handle the Caps top line with his 90 foot wingspan.
#3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils
Offense: Florida turned out to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but lucked into the #3 seed by playing in a flat out awful division. Meanwhile, the Devils got big bounce back years from Kovalchuk and Parise to give Brodeur some support for once. Advantage – New Jersey
Defense: The Panthers are one of the rare teams that entered the playoffs allowing more goals than they scored. New Jersey isn’t the trapping team of the previous decade, but they still know how to play good enough defense over there. Advantage – New Jersey
Goaltending: Martin Brodeur may be old, but he can still play the game. Florida will be relying on a possible mix of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen. My money is not two goalies that would probably be backups around half the league right now. Advantage – New Jersey
Special Teams: One thing the Panthers did do well with this season was their powerplay, which scored a majority of their timely goals this season. However, they counteracted it with one of the worst PKs in the game. New Jersey on the other hand has the best PK, almost stopping teams at a 90% rate and an average PP. Advantage – New Jersey
Coaching: Kevin Dineen has done a wonderful job for Florida in helping them win their division and make the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Meanwhile, NJ’s coach, Peter DeBoer, was the Panthers previous coach. Think there is a revenge factor there? Advantage – New Jersey
Misc: Brodeur knows this might be his last run and he’ll leave it all out on the ice in this series. Florida seems to be entering a little wide-eyed and surprised to be here. Advantage – New Jersey
Result: New Jersey in 4. If you’re surprised by that after my analysis, I’m not sure how you read this far down.
Last, but certainly not least:
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers
Offense: Two of the top 3 offenses in the league this year, this is just a matchup of offensive juggernauts. The amount of skill is unreal on both sides between Malkin, Giroux, Crosby, Hartnell (relax, it has to be said). Both teams have 3rd and 4th lines that can score as well. It’s impossible to bet against Crosby, Malkin, Staal when healthy though. Advantage - Pittsburgh
Defense: Both defenses have been rather inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes looking unbeatable and sometimes looking like they don’t belong in the NHL. The Pens seem to have some trouble clearing out the crease in front of Fleury while the Flyers have no problem putting the body on people. Advantage - Philadelphia
Goaltending: In the regular season, Fleury demonstrated Vezina potential and Bryzgalov went on a crazy hot streak as the playoff race came to a head. In the playoffs, Fleury has been there; Bryzgalov has been there and looked awful. Advantage - Penguins
Special Teams: Both teams had the exact same powerplay success rate, 19.7%. The penalty kills differ vastly though as the Pens finished 3rd in the NHL and the Flyers were in the middle of the pack. Advantage – Pittsburgh, but this largely depends on the goaltending for the PK.
Coaching: Dan Bylsma has faced some adversity in the playoffs since the last time he dealt with the Flyers in the postseason. He has had to learn a lot about his team through this year and seems to have a decent handle on them. Laviolette is masterful in motivating his team. His timeout usage seems to always propel them to a win and he knows what buttons to push. Pens fans won’t like this. Advantage - Even
Misc: The Flyers had a huge chip on their shoulder coming into this series, simply hating and wanting to beat the Pens for the first time in the playoffs as the core of these rosters are built. One of the worst things they could have done was put a chip on the shoulder of the Pens with that disaster brawl at the end of the game a week and a half ago. Grittiness may be a disadvantage depending on the refs, who will surely be on alert. Advantage - Pittsburgh
Result: Pittsburgh in 6. The Flyers are certainly a team that scares me, but I believe the refs will call it tight early and that will help the Pens keep focus while Philly tries to distract them. Also, Fleury trumps Bryzgalov in my head every way I play it out. My unsung hero for this series: Craig Adams will be huge with a key goal or 2; he’ll be big on the PK, and some big hits will make him a key factor in this series.
