Goal Assessment - Game 31: Pens 2 Caps 1

Link for Game 31 Thoughts:  The PensNation

+/- Assessment

1st Goal Against (Ovechkin): - for

• Kunitz – in the box for tripping
• No one else – just a bad bounce off of Niskanen’s block

1st Goal For (Martin): + for

• Crosby – passes a loose puck to Martin
• Martin – beats Holtby on a one-timer
• (Not giving credit to Bennett even though he received an assist. He fanned on a shot attempt and Carlson poked the puck away directly to Crosby)

2nd Goal For (Niskanen): + for

• Crosby – passes the puck left to Cooke and drives into the zone to take away defenders
• Cooke – passes to Niskanen as the trailer entering the zone on a 3 on 2
• Niskanen – made the initial pass interception in the defensive zone and passed it to Crosby, then rifles a shot past Holtby after Cooke’s pass

Season +/-:  Click here for the Season +/- Spreadsheet

Penguins Wake Ovechkin Up, Proceed to Beat Him

Main Storylines:

• Ben Lovejoy was traded to Anaheim for a 2014 5th round pick.  Dylan Reese was recalled from WBS.
• Kris Letang will miss tonight due to an unknown ailment (I bet it’s a body injury, maybe even inner).
• Dylan Reese makes his Penguins debut, paired up with Simon Despres

Result:

Pens 5  Caps 2

Goals:  Malkin (3) (PP) from Crosby, Martin

            Dupuis (4) from Crosby, Kunitz

            Neal (7) (PP) from Kunitz, Malkin

            Cooke (2) from Sutter

            Crosby (5) (PP) from Malkin, Neal

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442619

Stats:

• Most playing time: 28:08 for Paul Martin followed by 23:14 for Brooks Orpik
• Least playing time: 11:07 for Tyler Kennedy and then 11:38 for Zach Boychuk
• The Pens went 36 for 62 on faceoffs (Big 3 - Crosby: 12/23, Malkin: 10/16, Sutter: 8/13)
• Robert Bortuzzo led the team in hits (3) and penalties (2)
• The powerplay went 3/4 to increase their season total to 12/41 (29.3%)

The Good:

All smiles for the powerplay.

• Evgeni Malkin:  Geno seems to have shaken his KHL rust off completely at this point. Aside from his top corner snipe on Neuvirth and 2 powerplay assists, he’s demonstrating an increasing level of comfort in his skating and willingness to attempt various moves.  You can really tell when Malkin is feeling it based on his “swagger” on the ice, which tonight included a spin-o-rama shot (wide) and tape to tape passes.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the start of a goal streak for him.
• Powerplay:  While many of us (myself included) had suggested put Martin on the point and [foolishly] take Kunitz off the powerplay or split Malkin and Crosby up, Martin finally got his chance due to Letang’s absence tonight.  He ran the powerplay with poise and confidence and was certainly a factor in their 3 for 4 performance tonight.  The powerplay was clicking all over tonight as everyone made tape to tape passes and retrieved rebounds and pucks on the boards.  High skill + high effort + accuracy = lethal powerplay.  The usage of Crosby and Malkin across from each other on the left and right half boards (both had turns on each side) gave the Capitals fits and should be a fixture moving forward.
• Sidney Crosby:  All of a sudden, Crosby is tied for 3rd in points in the league and has put together a 6 game point streak.  Not bad for a guy that “started slow”, “would never return to form”, and “passed the baton.”  No matter what your feelings were going into the season, there is no doubt Crosby is playing at his elite level right now and wasn’t even slowed down by a puck to the face.  Good luck finding many players that scored the way he did tonight.  On a defensive note, his penalty killing has been quite strong too.
• Paul Martin:  As mentioned under the powerplay, Martin continues to move the puck with poise and has just simplified his game to a point of mastery.  He played a whopping 28:08 tonight, almost 5 minutes more than anyone else on the team.  Odds are you didn’t even notice it because he played that well.  I’m starting to run out of specifics to compliment Martin on because he has elevated his game that much.

The Bad:

• 2nd Line:  While Neal and Malkin looked great on the powerplay, the 2nd line still needs some work.  Neal was pass-happy, no wait, make that blind pass-happy and had issues turning the puck over.  Boychuk still had great bursts of speed and looked very much in sync with Malkin but his puck control could use some help.  The line as a whole seemed to make far too many short passes (we’ll say less than 3 ft) that were either unnecessary or too tough for someone to handle.  This line still hasn’t found their rhythm yet and I still think Jeffrey will return to the lineup sooner than later.
• Brandon Sutter:  This is certainly nitpicky because Sutter wasn’t bad; he just wasn’t up to par either.  His flaws were masked by the 5-2 win and his perfect faceoff win on Cooke’s goal, but he has had trouble controlling the puck and getting it out of the zone.  To a degree, I trust Sutter more without the puck than with the puck in the defensive and neutral zone right now.  That being said, he is still a stud when it comes to covering guys and blocking shots.  He just needs to be stronger on the puck on clears and passes.

The Ugly:

Wasn't Oates supposed to "unleash" Ovi?

• The Caps:  I had nothing marked badly enough for the Pens to put in this section (heck, I nitpicked to make a “Bad” section), so let’s attack what was ugly – the Washington Capitals.  Many fans had a bad feeling going into this game.  The Caps always play the Pens well in Pittsburgh, they had a big point to prove, and they were looking for a revenge game.  It started out strongly for Washington with the Ribeiro goal (don’t blame the refs, don’t blame the rules, Orpik got his stick under Fleury’s mask and knocked it off - lack of awareness on both of their parts).  Then there were just bizarre moves.  Pulling Neuvirth after the 2nd goal seemed foolish (and indeed did backfire) even if it was a soft goal.  The Caps as a team looked disgruntled after that happened instead of showing a renewed energy.  Why didn’t Oates use his timeout instead of going to Holtby who had gotten destroyed just days ago?  Then, why didn’t he use it after Holtby got blitzed twice in 11 seconds?  I thought Ovechkin played a strong game and looked awake again but the team as a whole just looked frazzled after the 2nd goal and had no rallying point.  What is the identity of the Capitals?  I don’t think anyone knows right now.

+/- Assessment:

Just glad the puck didn't hit Fleury's head.

• 1st GA (Ribeiro): - for Sutter (knocked off puck), Cooke (too deep in D zone, not covering point), Orpik (gets under Fleury’s mask with his stick)
• 1st GF (Malkin): + for Martin (pass to Crosby), Crosby (pass to Malkin), Kunitz (interferes with Carlson), Malkin (goal)
• 2nd GF (Dupuis): + for Engelland (breakout pass), Kunitz (passes up to Sid), Crosby (pass to Dupuis), Dupuis (goal)
• 3rd GF (Neal): + for Malkin (stretch pass to Kunitz), Kunitz (pass to the goal line to Neal), Neal (goal)
• 4th GF (Cooke): + for Sutter (faceoff win), Cooke (goal)
• 5th GF (Crosby): + for Neal (passes to Malkin), Malkin (shot that creates rebound), Crosby (retrieved puck originally, goal)
• 2nd GA (Ovechkin): - for Orpik (penalty)
• Click here to get the Season +/- spreadsheet and totals

Thoughts:

Nice and simple debut.

• Lovejoy Trade:  As you likely know, Lovejoy was traded to the Ducks for a 5th round pick.  I think it’s a fair trade, and honestly a generous trade since Lovejoy likely would have been put on waivers.  The Ducks are tearing it up right now and Lovejoy would have been claimed before he made it to them.  Pittsburgh gains compensation and the Ducks pay for depth.  It’s a solid trade for both teams.
• Dylan Reese:  I was very impressed with Reese, who played over 14 minutes in this game.  He played smart and simple hockey to perfection.  He didn’t take a single risk in passing or shooting the puck, and even made some superb line changes (I’m serious).  I noticed twice that he refused to change until his other D partner had changed and the new defenseman had already shifted over to cover him for his change.  It sounds natural and simple, but natural and simple is what wins hockey games for 3rd pairing defensemen, so good for him.
• Robert Bortuzzo:  Bortuzzo played well as usual and I had to give him credit for showing absolutely no fear with Ovechkin in the 3rd period.  The second penalty he took was certainly interference and I could have done without that (kept him out of the good section) but the first penalty was a good one.  He clearly stood up to Ovi and got into his head.  Not only that, but I will take a Bortuzzo for Ovechkin trade to the penalty box any day of the week.  Bortuzzo has quickly acclimated himself to the NHL and is showing he really belongs.

Pens Record: 8-3-0, 16 pts

Next Game:  2/9 @ NJ, 1pm

Illness Gives Kunitz Superpowers, Pens Win

Main Storylines:

• Tomas Vokoun starts against his former team.  He was perfect in his last start, making 28 saves to shut out NYR.
• The lineup remains the same with Dustin Jeffrey, Eric Tangradi, and Ben Lovejoy as healthy scratches.  Matt Niskanen is still out of the lineup with an ankle injury.
• Ovechkin before the game: “I'm standing here, I have only 3 points.  It kind of embarrasses me, but it is what it is.”

Result:

Pens 6  Caps 3

Goals:  Kunitz (3) from Martin, Crosby

            Cooke (1) from Engelland, Bortuzzo

            Letang (3) from Sutter, Cooke

            Kunitz (4) from Crosby, Malkin

            Kunitz (5) (PP) from Malkin, Neal

            Kunitz (6) (PP) from Crosby, Letang

ESPN Recap:  http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400442593

Stats:

• Chris Kunitz had the first 4 goal game of his career
• PP was 2 for 3, PK was 3 for 4
• The Pens won only 33% of faceoffs in the 1st but were at almost 50% (34/71) by the end of the game
• Evgeni Malkin was a team worst 5/14 (35.7%) on faceoffs
• Paul Martin and Robert Bortuzzo led with 4 blocked shots each (Pascal Dupuis next with 3)
• Tyler Kennedy was the only player under 10 minutes played with 9:51.  He only played 2:02 in the 3rd.
• Brooks Orpik led with 28:11 of playing time

The Good:

I want whatever Kunitz has.

• Chris Kunitz:  Do I even need to explain this one?  Kunitz added another 4 goals while “ill”, had solid puck control, and was a forechecking machine.  Obviously his 4 goals take the cake, but the biggest change in his game has simply been a massive decrease in turnovers.  Just an unreal performance by Kunitz, his first 4 goal game of his career.
• Sidney Crosby:  There is no question in my mind that Crosby played his best game of the year on Sunday.  The Pens’ captain had 3 assists and put his name back in the hat for “most-skilled grinder” in the world.  His defensive effort was superb and he displayed a plethora of creativity and hard work in the offensive zone.  Crosby was a force in all 3 zones against the Caps.
• James Neal:  Neal only had 1 assist and was a little lost on the Mike Green goal against, but he had a very strong defensive game overall.  I had him marked down 4 times for great poke checks or backchecks in the defensive zone and another 2 times for strong puck support going into the offensive zone.  It won’t show up on the scoresheet, but Neal played a very strong and responsible game to help out his linemates more than himself.

The Bad:

• Kris Letang:  Letang looked great in the offensive zone and showed two things that will elevate his game even further: patience and a wrist shot.  His defensive game was inconsistent though as he demonstrated awareness issues and committed multiple turnovers.  When the Pens started using Bortuzzo and Despres less, it looked like it hurt Letang’s game more than anything.  He doesn’t appear to have good chemistry with Engelland when they are on the ice together.

The Ugly:

Vokoun had a great game, don't let Edzo say otherwise.

• Simon Despres:  As a young defenseman in the league, Despres will face many ups and downs.  Sunday’s game was certainly a down as he took two penalties, was manhandled in the defensive zone and saw his TOI decrease as the game went on.  Here are my notes on Despres from the game: “bad pass, misses a check, gets out of position, can’t clear, getting manhandled, loses puck in neutral zone, high stick penalty, delay of game penalty.”  I’ll just leave it at that; he’ll work through it (as long as Bylsma doesn’t switch him for Lovejoy next game).
• Fluke Goals:  Though Eddie Olcyzk wanted to blast Tomas Vokoun for the Capitals’ second goal, it’s hard to blame a goalie when the puck shoots out at a 60 degree angle from the glass.  The Pens have seen their fair share of both good and bad bounces like that, so while it was ugly, I wouldn’t want Vokoun to play any different.
• Third Period:  With a 5-2 lead, the team reverted back to some bad habits like they did in the first Rangers win of the year on opening weekend.  There were more passes up the middle, more players skating away from passes, and team as a whole got a little cocky about their abilities.  With a team this talented, Dan Bylsma’s biggest challenge all season is going to be keeping everyone focused and in control for 60 minutes every game.  It’ll be something to watch all year and it's my biggest determining factor on if he's the right coach to win another Cup with this team.

+/- Assessment:

Green scores one for Mother Earth.

• 1st GF (Kunitz): + for Crosby (faceoff win), Martin (shot), Kunitz (deflection)
• 1st GA (Green): – for Neal (drifts from slot), Cooke (lets point guy go free), Letang (doesn’t pay attention to Green)
• 2nd GF (Cooke): + for Sutter (puck retrieval), Bortuzzo (pass), Engelland (shot), Cooke (deflection)
• 2nd GA (Carlson): - for no one, skaters played it right, bad bounce for Vokoun
• 3rd GF (Letang): + for Boychuk (brings in puck, gets it to the net), Cooke (puck retrieval), Sutter (pass), Letang (patience, goal)
• 4th GF (Kunitz): + for Malkin (outlet pass), Crosby (pass back to Kunitz), Kunitz (goal)
• 5th GF (Kunitz): + for Malkin (starts play, primary pass), Letang (returns puck to Malkin), Neal (pass to Malkin, creates room in slot), Kunitz (goal)
• 3rd GA (Ribeiro): - for Despres (penalty), Letang (fans on clear), Sutter (fans on poke check)
• 6th GF (Kunitz): + for Malkin (knocks puck to Neal), Neal (sends puck to Letang on point), Letang (passes to Crosby), Crosby (rotates and feeds Kunitz), Kunitz (goal)
• Season +/-: http://www.crosbyftw.com/p/plusminus-spreadsheet.html

Thoughts:

2 game assessment: waiver wire success

• Powerplay Setup:  The powerplay FINALLY made some sense (and produced 2 goals) as Letang was at the point, Malkin on the right boards, Neal in the slot, Kunitz drifting between the crease and the left faceoff circle, and Crosby moving as he pleases around the lower half of the zone.  There will still be plenty of scares with only Letang at the point, but at least now every player is in a position that is comfortable for him.  I’ll be the first one to call myself an idiot for considering moving Kunitz off the top PP now that he looks competent with the puck again.  I have a feeling this will continue to trend up and down though because the Caps didn’t look all that well-prepared for the Pens on special teams yesterday.
• Trade Thoughts:  Credit to Alex R (@Alb4619) for sparking this thought, but could we maybe see Kennedy traded this season?  He’s a restricted free agent after this season and is quickly losing playing time and Bylsma’s confidence it looks like.  Kennedy has proven himself as an NHL player, is still young, and could actually bring something back in a trade (unlike Tangradi or Lovejoy right now).  It’s something to ponder and Shero may even be able to throw one of those other two players into the mix with TK.  Again, just a thought.
• Who Gets Benched:  This section will stay in until Niskanen returns because either Despres, Bortuzzo, or Engelland will inevitably get benched when Nisky is healthy again (and there’s still Lovejoy there too).  Sunday’s game was bad for Despres but I’m still a firm believer that he has to play through everything to solidify himself in the NHL.  We all know my thoughts on Bortuzzo, I had him listed above Engelland coming out of camp.  Engelland has played well though and Bylsma clearly trusts him.  I’m sure it will turn into a “play well and you stay, play poorly and you sit” situation, so right now Despres is the leading candidate to sit in my mind, for better or worse.
• 2nd Line Wing Watch:  Boychuk has solidified himself as the 2nd line winger for now and his speed is an incredible asset with Malkin and Neal.  I can’t imagine Jeffrey or Tangradi getting into the lineup without an injury right now.  Ray Shero should send a bottle of champagne to Jim Rutherford and some wine to the 12 or so other GMs that passed on Boychuk.

Pens Record: 6-3-0, 12 pts

Next Game:  2/5 @ NYI, 7pm

Pens Trade For and Sign Tomas Vokoun

I had fully intended on taking a break from blogging until the Stanley Cup Finals were over, as I have kept busy by writing about the Kings on The Hockey Writers (http://thehockeywriters.com/author/rshanmugam/), but Ray Shero waits for no one.  He couldn’t even wait until I did my player by player season in review post before the draft, the inconsiderate jerk!

As you should know by now, the Penguins traded away their 7^th round pick in 2012 to the Washington Capitals for the rights to pending unrestricted free agent goalie Tomas Vokoun.  Vokoun was given permission by the Capitals early last week to seek a potential team for next year.  He had a no trade clause and had no intention of staying in Washington, so the team decided this would be the best way to receive some compensation for him.

"The playoffs aren't over yet?  I do what I want."

Apparently after talking to Ray Shero, the two found a match for multiple years.  Vokoun waived his NTC and shortly after the deal, the Penguins announced that Vokoun had signed a 2 year deal, worth $2 million each year.  Here are a few of the factors that went into this deal:

- Shero has worked with Vokoun before, back when they were both in Nashville

- Vokoun has the same agent as Fleury (Allan Walsh), so there is a healthy dynamic in place potentially

- The goalie market this year is weak in terms of truly tested experience

- There is a strong belief that Fleury played too many games down the stretch last year, which may have factored into a poor playoff performance

- Neither Brent Johnson, nor Brad Thiessen, looked capable enough last season to take on a bigger role this year

Okay, maybe it wasn't all Johnson's fault.

My overall thoughts are this is a great deal as it stands right now.  Vokoun has had injury problems lately, especially with his groin, but he fills a huge need for the Penguins if he stays healthy.  I personally felt that getting a backup goalie was the top IMMEDIATE need for the Penguins.  There are the contract situations with the forwards – but they don’t expire until next summer, and the defense played bad – but they are all under contract, so goaltending was still a fluid situation which could be fixed easily and quickly.  Also, hopefully we don't see this happen in Pittsburgh:

Here are some other miscellaneous thoughts on this deal:

- Vokoun has clearly signed on to be a backup.  He is not a threat to Fleury, and the team called Fleury before the deal to talk to him about it.  Vokoun even said in interviews he does not care how much he plays, he just wants to win a Cup.  There is NO goalie controversy whatsoever.

- Expect Vokoun to play in roughly 25 games or so.  The Pens wanted Fleury to play in 60 games last season and he ended up in 67 due to a variety of factors.  As we all saw how he floundered through March and April, there is no chance the Pens will let that happen again.  Vokoun should be good for at least 20 starts plus other relief appearances if not more starts.

Add 1 to the Euro group!

- This move both pushes Fleury, since he has a starting caliber goalie behind him, and also allows him to relax because he knows he can have an off night and feel confident about the goalie stepping into his place.  Athletes like Fleury always want to be the guy, and often have trouble trusting others to do a job as well as they can do it themselves (reference: Big Ben always playing at 50% when injured).  A goalie of Vokoun’s caliber takes that weight off of Fleury’s shoulders, while also letting him know that he can’t slump without getting replaced.  It also helps the coaching staff in the same way as they can hopefully trust Vokoun more than they did Johnson or Thiessen last year.

- Many people have questioned spending $2 million on a backup.  It is pricey; there is no question about that.  However, the cap is expected to go up to $70.3 million according to many sources, which makes it a manageable number to deal with.  Also, Ray Shero will not let this signing break the bank on keeping a top 3 center, I assure you.  There are enough other disposable players that he can use in a salary dump if absolutely necessary.  Paying $2 million to see Fleury fresh and strong in the playoffs is well worth the money.  He is capable of carrying this team on his own when given the right situation, and this is a part of creating the right situation.

- Finally, goodbye Brent Johnson.  You were a wonderful backup 2 years ago, not quite as good last year, but you always seemed like a great guy.  It was nice having you in Pittsburgh and I hope you do well elsewhere.  Thank you for punching Rick DiPietro for that everlasting memory.  Good luck.

- I’m not even going to address the 7^th round pick; it’s not even worth it.

What are your thoughts? Like Vokoun, hate Vokoun, too much money, or just right?

First Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Quarterfinals

Western Conference

#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  There is no question on this one.  LA’s offense has been downright anemic all season and savior Jeff Carter is nursing an ankle injury to start the playoffs.  Vancouver, though without Daniel Sedin to start, still boasts impressive offensive depth.  Edge - Vancouver

Defense:  Both teams have a great amount of depth on defense and veterans that have been to the finals before.  I have a little more faith in the Canucks though because of their experience and more importantly, they have demonstrated the ability to perform at clutch times.  Edge - Vancouver

Goaltending:  Roberto Luongo will be the headcase story of the playoffs.  Jonathan Quick will be a Vezina nominee and might get a Hart nomination as well.  Easy.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have a great PK, but Vancouver gets help from their top 5 powerplay while Los Angeles continues with their anemic scoring.  Edge - Vancouver

Coaching:  Alain Vigenault is on a mission to get the Canucks one more win than last season to get them a Cup while Darryl Sutter is still trying to figure out which buttons to push at which times for LA.  Edge - Vancouver

Misc:  The Canucks enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NHL.  LA entered the last week with a chance to clinch the division but blew it against a division rival.  Edge - Vancouver

Result:  Vancouver in 7.  Despite almost everything going Vancouver’s way, I believe in Jonathan Quick this much that he can take this series to the brink.  Quick has put the Kings on his shoulders all season, but it’ll come down to the clutch goal they can’t produce as Vancouver wins out in the end.

 

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks

Offense:  Whether it’s a product of systems or talent levels, San Jose certainly has the better offense in this matchup and more pure offensive talent with guys like Marleau, Pavelski.  Edge – San Jose

Defense:  Ken Hitchock knows how to get a team to play strong on the defensive end and he has turned the Blues into a gritty, hard-check team that will work hard in their own end.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott combined to win the Jennings trophy for lowest GAA and have combined for 15 shutouts this year.  No one beats this combination.  Edge – St. Louis

Special Teams:  San Jose quietly managed to put together polar opposites of the 2^nd best PP with the 2^nd worst PK.  Meanwhile, the Blues were on the low end of the PP list but higher on the PK.  In the playoffs, I’m siding with defense.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock, the likely Jack Adams winner from the Blues, vs. Todd McLellan, who consistently underachieves with the Sharks.  Edge – St. Louis.

Misc:  St. Louis is lacking playoff experience through most of their roster aside from a few veterans here and there.  San Jose finally enters the playoffs as an underdog, though that is after being Cup favorites before the season started.  The lack of pressure may help San Jose.  Edge – San Jose

Result:  San Jose in 7.  The Blues keep their opponents to low scoring close games, which may work frequently during the season, but leaves a lot to chance and bounces in a 7 game series.  The Sharks are talented enough to capitalize on those opportunities.  Here’s my upset special for the first round.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks

Offense:  Kane, Sharp, maybe a healthy Toews, and Keith vs. Vrbata, Whitney, Doan, Yandle…yeah this isn’t a tough one in my opinion.  Advantage - Chicago

Defense:  For the lack of offensive depth the Coyotes may have, the make up for it through a systematic defensive style that Dave Tippett could probably get 3 year olds to master.  Chicago has a strong blueline, but they are more prone to break downs than Phoenix.  Advantage - Phoenix

Goaltending:  Mike Smith ended the season with a 3 game shutout streak in his last for.  Chicago keeps bouncing back between Crawford and Emery as neither has been all that dependable this season.  Advantage - Phoenix

Special Teams:  Both teams have low-end powerplays despite the offensive talent on the rosters.  Phoenix has a great PK with their goaltending and style, while Chicago fails on that stat as well.  Advantage - Phoenix

Coaching:  Dave Tippett has been a great coach for the Coyotes and has installed a system that keeps defense at the forefront.  Joe Quineville though, he’s been there, he’s won the Cup, he knows how to handle the next 2 months.  Advantage - Chicago

Misc:  Much of this series will come to experience.  Phoenix still does not have a lot of playoff experience, and while Smith has been a solid goalie, he is untested as well.  Chicago has been through this and they know what to do.  Advantage - Chicago

Result:  Chicago in 5.  Though defense wins championships, I don’t see Phoenix having an impenetrable defense for this Blackhawks team.  Both teams enter the playoffs hot, and ultimately, I pick Chicago based on their experience and pure skill up front.  Also, I just don’t believe in Mike Smith in the playoffs yet.

#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings

Offense:  Both teams finished in the top 10 in goals this year with Detroit 7^th and Nashville 8^th.  While Nashville has made some nice additions with Radulov and Fisher over the past 2 years, I still can’t get over the Red Wings’ pure skill.  Advantage - Detroit

Defense:  Both teams were close in goals allowed as well, with Detroit edging it out yet again.  The Wings defense has been there, but I do have some concern about their consistency.  I’m picking Weber, Suter, and Nashville’s young D to be very hungry for a win this series.  Advantage - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekke Rinne vs. Jimmy Howard is an all-star game matchup.  When healthy, Howard was playing as a top 3 goalie in the NHL this year.  Rinne had a “down” year in comparison to some of the Vezina candidate, but he’s still a top 5 goalie.  Advantage: Even

Special Teams:  Nashville had the top PP in the league (which I had not known and am now shocked by) and a top 10 PK.  Detroit was middle of the pack with both units.  Advantage - Nashville

Coaching:  Both of these coaches are great.  Mike Babcock has demonstrated it through the playoffs year after year and Barry Trotz somehow keeps Nashville playing above what their roster looks like every year.  They are both Jack Adams candidates on a yearly basis even if they don’t get the press.  In the playoffs though, you can’t bet against Babcock.  Advantage - Detroit

Misc:  Detroit faltered down the stretch and gave up their chance at home ice, where they play drastically better than on the road.  Nashville finally enters a series with the Wings as the favorites.  Advantage - Nashville

Result:  Detroit in 6.  I think this is the last big run for the aging Wings and they know it.  This will be a last gasp for Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk as age starts wearing on them with injuries.  The problem for Nashville is that a last gasp from Detroit is pretty much the full attack of a normal team.

Eastern Conference

#1 New York Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators

Offense:  The Rangers have gritty depth, but the Senators have a lot of speed up front and use it very well.  Norris candidate Erik Karlsson also adds quite a bit of offensive punch from the blueline.  Advantage - Ottawa

Defense:  The Rangers boast a very impressive 3 pairings at D, where all 3 are capable of playing against a 1^st line.  Ottawa…well they are still learning how to play defense in many ways as Karlsson even faltered with it down the stretch.  Advantage – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist.  Doesn’t matter who Ottawa has (Craig Anderson).  Advantage – New York

Special Teams:  Both teams have their offensive and defensive strengths pour into their special teams in an exact manner.  Ottawa is stronger on the PP but weak on the PK.  New York had a top 5 PK but had a very weak PP.  Ottawa’s PP isn’t so great that it is overbearing though.  Advantage – New York

Coaching:  The Senators’ Paul MacLean has done an amazing job as a first year coach.  Personally, I had this team nowhere close to the playoffs.  John Tortorella meanwhile is downright crazy, though he knows how to get results and he does have a Cup as well.  That last aspect is the biggest to me, MacLean is a rookie for the second time this season.  Advantage – New York

Misc:  Both teams slowed down as the season finished up, but the difference is New York could relax as the #1 seed while Ottawa almost slipped out of the playoffs.  Advantage – New York

Result:  New York in 7.  I think Ottawa is simply the type of team that will give the Rangers trouble due to their quickness.  But much like a gnat or fly, the Rangers will swat at it in annoyance for a little before finally landing a killer blow.  The Rangers finish it off in the end.

#2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Boston had the #2 offense in the league, but Washington had a cold Ovechkin and an injured Backstrom to deal with for much of the year.  Despite Boston’s depth, Washington has more pure firepower when healthy and focused in my opinion.  Advantage - Washington

Defense:  Starting with Zdeno Chara (not a bad start, right?), Boston has a sizeable defense that can hold opponents to the outside and keep them out of the crease.  Washington’s defense has much less experience and doesn’t necessarily have the size to match up well here.  Advantage - Boston

Goaltending:  Washington is having all kinds of injury issues at goalie, as Braden Holtby steps to the forefront with Vokoun and Neuvirth nursing injuries.  Boston has Tim Thomas.  Yeah…  Advantage - Boston

Special Teams:  Both teams have middling powerplays but Boston comes out on top on the penalty kill as long as Chara is out there to dictate the pace of the other team’s powerplay.  Advantage - Boston

Coaching:  The Caps haven’t completely bought into Dale Hunter’s style it seems, and I’m not sure Hunter has either.  Claude Julien won the Cup last year, so I think he’s just a little more confident heading into this series.  Advantage - Boston

Misc:  There will be much talk about Tim Thomas being uncomfortable in the DC area but I can’t see him caring very much.  Stanley Cup Winners don’t go very far the next year historically, but Washington has been lost all season and is lucky to be here right now.  Advantage - Boston

Result:  Boston in 5.  The goaltending matchup is too much to overcome for Washington and Chara should be able to handle the Caps top line with his 90 foot wingspan.

#3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  Florida turned out to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but lucked into the #3 seed by playing in a flat out awful division.  Meanwhile, the Devils got big bounce back years from Kovalchuk and Parise to give Brodeur some support for once.  Advantage – New Jersey

Defense:  The Panthers are one of the rare teams that entered the playoffs allowing more goals than they scored.  New Jersey isn’t the trapping team of the previous decade, but they still know how to play good enough defense over there.  Advantage – New Jersey

Goaltending:  Martin Brodeur may be old, but he can still play the game.  Florida will be relying on a possible mix of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen.  My money is not two goalies that would probably be backups around half the league right now.  Advantage – New Jersey

Special Teams:  One thing the Panthers did do well with this season was their powerplay, which scored a majority of their timely goals this season.  However, they counteracted it with one of the worst PKs in the game.  New Jersey on the other hand has the best PK, almost stopping teams at a 90% rate and an average PP.  Advantage – New Jersey

Coaching:  Kevin Dineen has done a wonderful job for Florida in helping them win their division and make the playoffs for the first time in a decade.  Meanwhile, NJ’s coach, Peter DeBoer, was the Panthers previous coach.  Think there is a revenge factor there?  Advantage – New Jersey

Misc:  Brodeur knows this might be his last run and he’ll leave it all out on the ice in this series.  Florida seems to be entering a little wide-eyed and surprised to be here.  Advantage – New Jersey

Result:  New Jersey in 4.  If you’re surprised by that after my analysis, I’m not sure how you read this far down.

Last, but certainly not least:

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers

Offense:  Two of the top 3 offenses in the league this year, this is just a matchup of offensive juggernauts.  The amount of skill is unreal on both sides between Malkin, Giroux, Crosby, Hartnell (relax, it has to be said).  Both teams have 3^rd and 4^th lines that can score as well.  It’s impossible to bet against Crosby, Malkin, Staal when healthy though.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Defense:  Both defenses have been rather inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes looking unbeatable and sometimes looking like they don’t belong in the NHL.  The Pens seem to have some trouble clearing out the crease in front of Fleury while the Flyers have no problem putting the body on people.  Advantage - Philadelphia

Goaltending:  In the regular season, Fleury demonstrated Vezina potential and Bryzgalov went on a crazy hot streak as the playoff race came to a head.  In the playoffs, Fleury has been there; Bryzgalov has been there and looked awful.  Advantage - Penguins

Special Teams:  Both teams had the exact same powerplay success rate, 19.7%.  The penalty kills differ vastly though as the Pens finished 3^rd in the NHL and the Flyers were in the middle of the pack.  Advantage – Pittsburgh, but this largely depends on the goaltending for the PK.

Coaching:  Dan Bylsma has faced some adversity in the playoffs since the last time he dealt with the Flyers in the postseason.  He has had to learn a lot about his team through this year and seems to have a decent handle on them.  Laviolette is masterful in motivating his team.  His timeout usage seems to always propel them to a win and he knows what buttons to push.  Pens fans won’t like this.  Advantage - Even

Misc:  The Flyers had a huge chip on their shoulder coming into this series, simply hating and wanting to beat the Pens for the first time in the playoffs as the core of these rosters are built.  One of the worst things they could have done was put a chip on the shoulder of the Pens with that disaster brawl at the end of the game a week and a half ago.  Grittiness may be a disadvantage depending on the refs, who will surely be on alert.  Advantage - Pittsburgh

Result:  Pittsburgh in 6.  The Flyers are certainly a team that scares me, but I believe the refs will call it tight early and that will help the Pens keep focus while Philly tries to distract them.  Also, Fleury trumps Bryzgalov in my head every way I play it out.  My unsung hero for this series:  Craig Adams will be huge with a key goal or 2; he’ll be big on the PK, and some big hits will make him a key factor in this series.