Offseason Podcast #5 - Pens Development Camp/New CBA Terms

Welcome back for Podcast #5 of the summer. Free agency is still at a crawl, but we discuss the latest about Shane Doan, Pens Development Camp, and the first attempt at a new CBA by the NHL owners (cough cough, lockout, cough cough). Also, we look into what Konstantin Koltsov is up to nowadays (or at least we try to).

Listen here and/or subscribe to the CrosbyFTW podcast on iTunes (itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/crosbyftw/id542573263).
Feedback is encouraged and thanks for listening!!
Tweet us: @HockeyMeesh and @PolishHMR, or e-mail us: CrosbyFTWpodcast@gmail.com

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One quick correction - entry level salaries are now at $925k + bonuses, not $870k as I had said (which is what it was a few years back).

Offseason Podcast #3 - Free Agency

Welcome back for Podcast #3!  Adam (@PolishHMR) and I (@HockeyMeesh) cover our favorite and least favorite signing(s) of free agency so far, the Parise/Suter debacle, and where the Penguins can go from here.  Hopefully we'll be on iTunes soon.  Thanks for listening!

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Parise and Suter Sign With Wild, Pens Move On.

It’s all finally over.  #PariseWatch has ended.  Zach Parise and Ryan Suter have each signed a 13 year deal worth $98 million ($7.538 mil cap hit) with the Minnesota Wild.  As news came out today, we learned that Parise and Suter had been talking about playing on the same team for the past year, and spent much of the past 2 days considering their options together.  Suter never wanted to play in the East, so that was certainly a factor.  For Suter it was between Nashville, Detroit, and Minnesota.  Also, Parise said it came down to Minnesota and New Jersey.  He told NJ it was tough to leave there, but he couldn’t turn down the option of playing where he grew up.  Clearly the one team with the overlap between the 2 won big.

So there it is Pens fans, Pittsburgh was 3^rd at best.  In hindsight and with all of the reports, here is my analogy.  Pittsburgh was the sports car, it had sex appeal, it allowed Parise to play with Crosby and have a chance at winning Cups in the immediate future.  Minnesota was a new 4 door sedan, it was safe and logical, it offered a place to both grow and retire and it was reasonable.  Finally, New Jersey was the old beat up first car, it gave Parise a start and memories he could never replace, it was his second home.  Guess what, long term relationships (say, 13 years) don’t last just on pure sexiness.  Pittsburgh may have been appealing for a short moment, but according to Shero, the Pens were never close to getting Parise or Suter.

Now on to my various thoughts:

On the Contracts:

The Parise deal is solid.  A $7.538 million cap hit for him makes sense and he is a dynamic player.  The same price for Suter is asinine in my opinion.  I don’t believe he will be worth it even in Year 1 after benefitting from playing with Weber for so long.  He’s talented, but he’s not worth more than $6 mil / yr at best in my opinion right now.  The Parise deal will probably be worth it, but they may regret the Suter deal.

On Going to Minnesota:

I see nothing wrong with Parise’s decision to go to Minnesota.  They have as much of a chance at building a winner over the next decade as any other team in the league.  Look at the last 10 winners: Tampa, Carolina, Anaheim, and LA are very much unpredicted teams in that group.  The last 4 winners were amongst the bottom 5 teams coming out of the lockout less than a decade ago.  Any team can turn into a winner quickly in this NHL landscape.  Also, don’t forget that the Wild were in 1^st place for over a month last year.  It was not sustainable, but they aren’t that far off, especially with these additions.

Minnesota made the most sense to me to be honest (not just saying that, I called it before free agency began too).  This is a retirement contract for Parise and Suter.  Parise is from there and Suter’s wife is from there.  Family ties clearly pulled at the players hard.  On top of it, there is something special about going home and bringing your home town team a championship.  Parise gets the chance to be a hometown hero over the next decade.  If you can blame him for that decision, you gave up rational thoughts long ago.

"Destiny Has a New Home."  Maybe it went to Minnesota?

On Pittsburgh Not Getting Them:

I have no problem with not getting Parise.  It would have been nice but it was a luxury.  The Pens are one of the top goal scoring teams in the league and still have Crosby, Malkin and Neal to lead the way.  They are not hurt by not getting Parise; it just would have been a nice present.  Missing out on Suter hurts more, but the Pens were never on his radar so it doesn’t appear to be a surprise.  When it comes down to it, shelling out $98 million to either of these players wasn’t a necessity for the Penguins to compete, and it’s an acceptable “loss”.  Also, Shero said in his press conference that the Pens did not miss out on any other players by waiting for these 2; it was Parise and/or Suter or bust.  So take it for what it is, nothing changed.

On Where the Pens Stand Now:

This is the part where I’ll be a little up in arms.  The Pens are a worse team than they were 2 weeks ago.  This bothers me right now and will bother me until it changes.  Vokoun was a great addition to back up Fleury.  The Staal deal was fine, no issues there – I like Brandon Sutter a lot and I think he will do a great job as a 3^rd line center and will have more offensive potential than people realize.  I have no problem letting go of Asham either, I believe Tanner Glass is an improvement on him.  Losing Sullivan to Phoenix today hurt the powerplay a lot, but he is replaceable as a regular winger and I think Shero will find someone to do the job.

So my issue: Michalek for a bag of pucks.  Shero has a lot of cap room to work with and doesn’t seem to need it yet (even if the Pens spend to the cap, you’re allowed to go $7 million over the cap in the summer).  Michalek could have been traded for a bag of pucks the day before the season started if necessary, but there was no reason to get him out right away.  I realize he requested a trade and it was professional courtesy, but I wonder if it should have been more of a hockey trade than a salary dump given how everything has evolved.  And no, I did not take this stance as soon as we lost out on Parise; I didn’t like the trade initially and wrote the same thing right after it happened.  The Pens lack a true defensive defenseman right now and they got nothing back for the one they had under contract.

Scoring doesn't bother me.  This bothers me.

On What the Pens Should Do Next:

The free agent market is awful.  If I was forced to pick 2 free agents I would want at this point, they would be Peter Mueller and Chris Campoli.  I do like Mueller a lot, but he is a major injury risk.  Campoli has been moved around a lot at only the age of 27 and probably can’t be relied on more than a 3^rd pair defenseman (which I would still take at the right price).  The story is the same; the Pens could use a winger and NEED a defenseman in my opinion.  I would expect Shero to make a depth signing in the free agent market like he usually does, but nothing flashy or important.

Shero will surely scour the trade market where he has robbed so many teams, but I think the prices will be too high at first.  It may be a quiet few weeks before the Pens make a move, if any.  There are an awful lot of teams with too much cap room right now (Pens – 11 mil, Rangers – 16 mil, Wings – 17 mil, Caps – 19 mil).  Prepare to see some insanity throughout the upcoming season.

Final Thoughts:

For what it’s worth, the Penguins are on Rick Nash’s short list of approved teams that he would be willing to go to.

Shero has had some tough attempts with free agents, but has done wonders on the trade market.  He is not a bad GM.  Parise wanted to go home.  Hamhuis wanted to go home.  Hossa wanted to go to a better team (Detroit had just beaten his team, it was logical).  Jagr wanted more money.  His gains from Guerin, Kunitz, Dupuis, Neal, Niskanen, etc. far outweigh his free agency troubles.  One may argue he struck out on UFA’s Martin and Michalek.  Michalek has a reasonable deal if you look around the NHL.  Martin is overpaid, but I personally think he will have a much better season this year than last.  It’s hard to judge a 5 year contract without 5 years passing.  Look at Gonchar’s tenure here if you can’t understand that.

Here is my rough predicted Pens lineup as of right now:

Kunitz – Crosby – Dupuis

Cooke – Malkin - Neal

Jeffrey – Sutter – Kennedy

Glass – Vitale – Adams

Tangradi (RFA) – Peters

Letang – Orpik

Niskanen – Martin

Lovejoy – Engelland

Reese

Fleury

Vokoun

This roster still needs work, regardless of what Shero says about being comfortable with it.  It's not a bad team, but it's not a Cup winner either.  Who is next on your wishlist?  The next podcast will be recorded tonight and posted tomorrow.

News and Notes on Free Agency Eve

Niskanen Re-Signs

The Pens now have 6 defensemen on the NHL roster as they re-signed Matt Niskanen to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $2.3 million each year.  He will actually make $2.1 million next year and $2.5 million the following year, a smart move with a potential lockout looming as ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted.  Niskanen went from one of the most hated to one of the most loved Penguins in the span of a year as he adjusted to and thrived in Bylsma’s quick moving system.

Does Staal score this goal without Niski?  No he doesn't.

Analysis:  My guess was 2 years, $4.5 million total so I think it’s a solid deal!  It falls right in line with a contract I had mentioned on Friday’s podcast when Columbus defenseman Nikita Nikitin signed a 2 year, $4.3 million deal.  I imagine Niskanen wanted a longer deal and Shero probably would have liked a 1 year deal, so they settled on two.  When this deal expires, many of the Pens young defensemen will be ready for the NHL, so Niskanen will certainly have to play well in the second year of this deal to stay in Pittsburgh.

Thiessen Re-Signs

After not being tendered a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, Brad Thiessen still re-signed with the Penguins for 1 year on a two-way contract that will pay him $525,000 at the NHL level.  Thiessen saw limited NHL time last year while Brent Johnson was struggling/injured.  He will likely start for the Baby Pens, sitting 3^rd on the depth chart behind Fleury and Vokoun.

Thiessen will face tougher opponents in the AHL
than he did in the NHL last year.

Analysis:  I am quite surprised Thiessen is back after the Pens signed Vokoun and acquired 3 goalies last weekend (2 drafted, 1 via trade with Phoenix).  But at the NHL minimum, he does bring a plethora of AHL experience and success, along with some NHL experience if Fleury or Vokoun get hurt.  This will probably be his last year with the franchise I would think.

Parise Watch

With less than 24 hours to go until Free Agency opens up, Parise watch is in full swing.  He will be with his agent in Ontario tomorrow basically fielding offers/visits/calls/singing telegrams (call me maybe?).  Rob Rossi, Josh Yohe, and some others have reported they expect the Pens to offer a deal around $75-$80 million over 10 years.  It is not expected to be front-loaded (Shero hates giving out front-loaded deals, Crosby is truly the exception).  Here’s my take on the front-runners for Parise:

At least one jersey won't change for Parise.

Minnesota – Parise is originally from Minneapolis and Minnesota is looking to make a big splash by luring him back home.  They will certainly offer a lot of money, I would guess around $10 million per year, and likely a similar length to the Pens deal if that’s what Parise wants.  They may be the worst of the teams with a shot to get him, but don’t discount the fact that Minnesota was in first place in the West for a little bit last year.  They aren’t as bad as people think.

Strengths: Hometown, Money

Detroit – The Wings have a plethora of cap space and will look to sign both Parise and Suter in one swift move.  There had been rumors that the 2 players were interested in going to the same place, so keep that in mind.  I’m guessing Detroit will offer the longest term in the same way they have given Zetterberg and Datsyuk long deals.  The Wings have the potential of offering the most money, years, and a chance to play with a winner.  Don’t forget, as Pens fans bank on Parise wanting to play with Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk is kinda a decent and well-respected player too…

Strengths: Money, Winner, Datsyuk?

New Jersey – New Jersey has put themselves in quite the pickle with money.  News came out earlier this week that they could not commit money to Martin Brodeur yet, so Brodeur hired agent Pat Brisson (Crosby’s agent) and will test out the free agent market tomorrow.  The wording of this was very telling, “commit”.  My hypothesis is they cannot commit the money because they want a final answer from Parise first, only after that can they commit money to Brodeur (if he even waits for them).  Parise has played for the Devils his entire career and will certainly be drawn to return based on the Cup Final run that ended just weeks ago.  He knows what he is getting into with New Jersey, and to some players, that means a lot.

Strengths: “Home”/Familiarity, Winner

Pittsburgh – The Pens are banking heavily on the “Crosby effect” to lure Parise in.  Their offer will be for a long term, though it will likely be one of the lowest offers Parise receives and it will not be front loaded.  Much of the fanfare around Parise coming to Pittsburgh surrounds the idea that he would want to play with Sidney Crosby, would take less money to do so, and would come here to try and build a long-lasting dynasty.  Fans want winners, owners want winners, but we don’t quite know what every player wants.  Also, don’t expect Shero to offer anything that could possibly jeopardize Malkin’s long term contract coming after next year (10 yrs/80 mil does not fyi).

Strengths: Winner, Crosby

Rest of the League – Undoubtedly there will be at least 10 more offers in addition to the ones I have listed above.  Free Agency is pure insanity, so who knows what team comes out of left field with a big offer that might draw Parise in.  The Rangers?  The Kings?  The Flyers?  Who wouldn’t want Zach Parise?  So while those 4 may be the front runners, anything could happen.

Final Thoughts: Years and a front-loaded deal could be the tie-breakers when it comes to the Parise sweepstakes.  I would not be shocked if this goes beyond July 1^st as he considers a dozen offers and plays teams against each other in a bidding war.  Unfortunately, the Pens cannot keep up in a bidding war, or even in the original bids.  While Pens fans want to say Parise should come to Pittsburgh if he wants to play for a winner, the other 29 teams are trying to build a winner too, and New Jersey (and many others) came closer to it than the Pens have in the past 3 years.  To be honest, I do not foresee Parise taking less money to play in Pittsburgh.  I’ll make my final prediction tomorrow, but unless something drastically changes in the next 19ish hours, it won’t be Pittsburgh.

UPDATED: KDKA is reporting that Parise's top 2 choices are Minnesota and Pittsburgh at this point.  While I find this hard to believe since free agency doesn't begin for another 17 hours and Parise has no clue what he will be offered by other teams, if that's the case, my prediction is Minnesota.  Again though, I find this very hard to believe.

Other Free Agents

Ryan Suter – Suter will be hanging out at his farm in Wisconsin tomorrow and taking phone calls throughout the day.  Pittsburgh will be in the mix, though they will surely be beat in terms of money.  Detroit is the heavy favorite according to many, and Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Anaheim and Edmonton are expected to also make offers (along with others).  Nashville isn’t quite out of the running yet, though it looks unlikely that Suter will return.  Suter places a high value on comfort and lifestyle for his family, so money may not be the biggest factor in this decision.  One thing that may hurt Pittsburgh: the treatment of Paul Martin.  If Suter does not live up to his contract, I’m not sure he wants to risk putting his family through what Martin has dealt with in Pittsburgh.

Shero has a thing for acquiring former Predators.
(O'Reilly and Sullivan)

Jason Garrison – The hopefully not one hit wonder defenseman for the Panthers is still in negotiations with the team, though they do not look very fruitful as he is due a major raise from his $700k salary.  There is a slight chance that the Panthers may trade his rights late and Vancouver is inquiring about it after missing out on Justin Schultz (agreed to terms with Edmonton).  Is a Luongo trade in the mix with this one in the next 18 hours?

PA Parenteau – The pass happy Isles forward is certain to test free agent waters tomorrow, though he will continue talking to the Isles after the clock hits noon.  It’s rumored that the Avs and Sens will be in hard on him, and the Avs have a lot of cap space to overpay offer him.  I would expect every team that loses the Parise sweepstakes to give him a call as well, further driving up his price.  It’s a good year to be Parenteau.

Shane Doan – Much like Parenteau, every team that loses on Parise will quickly turn to Doan.  There have even been rumors that Jonathan Toews was trying to recruit him personally for the Blackhawks.  Doan has expressed a preference for staying in Phoenix, but uncertainty around the team will likely lead to him listening to offers on Sunday.  Look for Chicago, Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Phoenix to lead the rush to Doan pending the Parise situation.

I’ll leave it at that for now; keep up with the rest on Twitter!  Thanks for reading!