Recap: Hockey Offseason '12

As we continue through September and (some) players return to their teams for informal workouts, it’s time to say goodbye to another NHL offseason.  Though there is still plenty of CBA uncertainty and a lockout looming on the horizon, the actual offseason will be over as of September 15^th.  Yes, the calendar moves on even if the NHL does not.

It has been four long months since the Penguins were knocked out by the Flyers, how have we passed the time?

April 22:  Pens season officially ends at the hands of a 5-1 loss to the Flyers in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.  Memories of the series: Blown 3 goal leads, Neal Suspension Watch, Kris Letang shushes the crowd, Crosby fights Giroux, Collapse of the Defense/PK/Fleury, Jordan Staal’s potential assent to stardom.

This moment will live in infamy.  How will he explain that to
his kid one day?!?

April 25:  Joel Ward scores the winner for Washington to knock the defending Cup Champion Bruins out of the playoffs.  Tim Thomas gestures at his daughter to smile in the crowd while Ward gets berated by racists on the internet.

May 12:  The Conference Semifinals end as the Rangers, Devils, Kings, and Coyotes advance.  Pens fans rejoice at seeing the Flyers and Caps go down while NHL fans are confused to see the existence of a Pacific Division that plays at 10pm EST.

May 25:  The Conference Finals end as the Devils and Kings advance to the Stanley Cup Final.  NBC executives sob in a dark corner due to the unexpectedly sudden death of their tv ratings.

May 31:  Future Hall of Famer Nicklas Lidstrom retires thinking that the NHL’s postseason had already ended.

June 4:  Tim Thomas announces on facebook that he will take a year off from the NHL.  Millions realize it’s time to get off of facebook.

Yes.

June 11:  The Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup in a 6-1 rout, forever boosting their fan base unless something crazy like a lockout might occur 3 months later.

June 14:  Fans go f*cking crazy about the f*cking Kings thanks to Jonathan f*cking Quick.

June 20:  The NHL wows its fans in Vegas with a horrible awards show.  Brendan Shanahan is not amused.  Malkin takes home ALL of the awards (literally, for display at the draft).

June 27:  At the NHL draft in Pittsburgh, fans go wild as Jordan Staal is traded to Carolina in the first round.  Fans later go wild again when the Trib’s Rob Rossi suggests that the team might acquire Keith Yandle from Phoenix.  Reports are later confirmed that the Pens actually just gave away Zbynek Michalek as a charitable donation to Phoenix instead.  Rumor has it, the donation was tax deductible.

June 29:  Pittsburgh agrees to a 12 year deal worth $104.4 million with Sidney Crosby.  Instead of rejoicing over a signing, Pens fans tear each other apart over whether the term was too long and what Malkin should get.

June 30:  NHL fans hit DEFCON 1 as they prepare for a free agent frenzy that is led by bidding wars for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter.

July 1:  The “frenzy” begins at 12:30 as Jonas Gustvasson signs with Detroit.  10 hours later, NHL fans realize they have no life in the summer.  Meanwhile, HockeyyInsiderr reports that Parise and Suter will both go to Pittsburgh, Detroit, New Jersey, Minnesota, or some mystery team over the course of a few days.

Errrrr....

July 1:  Jordan Staal signs a suspiciously familiar 10 year, $60 million extension with Carolina.  Pens fans start to consider the idea that maybe he didn’t want to stay in Pittsburgh, but go unconscious at the thought of such a concept.

July 2:  Parise Watch continues as the media and fans fight each other about where Parise will end up.  Mark Madden leads the charge with arguments suggesting that there is no way Parise would turn down Pittsburgh and Crosby.  Fans vomit.

July 3:  Everyone hits the snooze button as the watch continues.

July 4:  In a patriotic move that forces reporters to do work on a national holiday, Parise and Suter sign with the Minnesota Wild.  Pens fans call them stupid for turning down a chance to play with the magical Sidney Crosby and for the best franchise that was every created in the history of the universe.  Ha, and Tortorella thinks Pittsburgh is arrogant…

July 5:  Pittsburgh shifts to Doan watch after the Parise debacle.  Historians later determine that the Mayans were not predicting the end of the world, but actually suggesting the end date for Doan Watch.

July 12:  As the wait for Doan continues, head coach Dan Bylsma suggests that Eric Tangradi could play a role on one of the top lines as the Pens search for a winger.  Fans call for Bylsma’s head, begin questioning Shero’s abilities, and look to bang bodies.

July 14:  The NHL makes its first CBA offer to the players.  The offer restricts seemingly everything about player careers, ranging from contract lengths to brands of toothpaste.  Fans side with the players and the lockout monster dusts himself off after a 7 year slumber.

July 17:  The Flyers offer Shea Weber a massive offer sheet worth $110 million over 14 years.  The contract is truly in the spirit of the new CBA offer as it would violate every single clause of it.  Nashville has 7 days to match as they argue that they can’t afford to compete in the NHL with these player salaries.

July 23:  Scott Howson wakes up and realizes it has been roughly a month since his last trading gaffe.  Forgoing his traditional call to Philadelphia, he decides on the Rangers and sends Rick Nash to New York for role players.  This would also be the last morning that Artem Anisimov and Brandon Dubinsky would ever smile.

July 24:  Nashville matches the Weber offer sheet as the NHLPA scratches its collective head about the owners not having enough money to spend.

August 1: Doan watch continues as he is reportedly interested in every NHL, AHL, KHL, and somehow OHL team, according his agent.  He has also been spotted in 8 different cities with 4 different kids wearing 6 different jerseys at the same time and is expect to sign “soon” with all of those teams.  There is also a rumored mystery team that offers him a winning powerball ticket.

August 13:  Reports come out that HockeyyInsiderr is a 17 year old kid.  Thousands of fake accounts continue to follow him.  More concerning, thousands of real accounts continue to do so as well.

Read:  This is how much the Owners care.

August 14:  The NHLPA finally sends the NHL a counteroffer after a month of consideration.  Bettman tells the media that the NHLPA clearly put some thought into their counteroffer.  In a helpful and revolutionary method of protest, fans begin using 3 seconds of their day to type “No Lockout”, create twitter accounts, and sign petitions.  The owners use those 3 seconds to double check their bank accounts instead of paying attention or caring.

August 21:  EA Sports releases their NHL 13 demo.  The game receives universal praise for gameplay while dealing with harsh critiques about its realism with no lockout mode.

August 29:  The NHL provides the players with their 2^nd CBA offer.  Hope grows as the media leaks that the NHLPA will provide a counteroffer within a day or 2.

August 30:  NBC releases its national tv schedule for the NHL.  Advertisers take note of which 3 hour periods to avoid until 2013.

August 31:  The NHLPA meets with the NHL briefly; talks stall and break off completely with no future scheduled meetings.  The lockout monster swallows hope whole.

September 1:  An anti-lockout video goes viral as fans try to protest the upcoming lockout.  The video runs 8 minutes and 31 seconds.  NHL owners collectively earn thousands of dollars in interest during that time and laugh about it on their way to the bank.

Want the harsh truth?  Together we can't make a difference because together we don't matter.  Get over yourselves.  Also, if you cry over a lockout, I strongly urge you to reconsider what you're doing with your life.

September 4:  Gabriel Landeskog is named the captain of the Colorado Avalanche.  Pens fans have a meltdown that Crosby is no longer the youngest captain in history, arguing about Crosby’s achievements and skill level in comparison to Landeskog.  Crosby finds out he was once the youngest captain in NHL history and shrugs.

Today, September 6:  Nothing.  And nothing is anticipated until…

September 15:  Expected Lockout.

Parise and Suter Sign With Wild, Pens Move On.

It’s all finally over.  #PariseWatch has ended.  Zach Parise and Ryan Suter have each signed a 13 year deal worth $98 million ($7.538 mil cap hit) with the Minnesota Wild.  As news came out today, we learned that Parise and Suter had been talking about playing on the same team for the past year, and spent much of the past 2 days considering their options together.  Suter never wanted to play in the East, so that was certainly a factor.  For Suter it was between Nashville, Detroit, and Minnesota.  Also, Parise said it came down to Minnesota and New Jersey.  He told NJ it was tough to leave there, but he couldn’t turn down the option of playing where he grew up.  Clearly the one team with the overlap between the 2 won big.

So there it is Pens fans, Pittsburgh was 3^rd at best.  In hindsight and with all of the reports, here is my analogy.  Pittsburgh was the sports car, it had sex appeal, it allowed Parise to play with Crosby and have a chance at winning Cups in the immediate future.  Minnesota was a new 4 door sedan, it was safe and logical, it offered a place to both grow and retire and it was reasonable.  Finally, New Jersey was the old beat up first car, it gave Parise a start and memories he could never replace, it was his second home.  Guess what, long term relationships (say, 13 years) don’t last just on pure sexiness.  Pittsburgh may have been appealing for a short moment, but according to Shero, the Pens were never close to getting Parise or Suter.

Now on to my various thoughts:

On the Contracts:

The Parise deal is solid.  A $7.538 million cap hit for him makes sense and he is a dynamic player.  The same price for Suter is asinine in my opinion.  I don’t believe he will be worth it even in Year 1 after benefitting from playing with Weber for so long.  He’s talented, but he’s not worth more than $6 mil / yr at best in my opinion right now.  The Parise deal will probably be worth it, but they may regret the Suter deal.

On Going to Minnesota:

I see nothing wrong with Parise’s decision to go to Minnesota.  They have as much of a chance at building a winner over the next decade as any other team in the league.  Look at the last 10 winners: Tampa, Carolina, Anaheim, and LA are very much unpredicted teams in that group.  The last 4 winners were amongst the bottom 5 teams coming out of the lockout less than a decade ago.  Any team can turn into a winner quickly in this NHL landscape.  Also, don’t forget that the Wild were in 1^st place for over a month last year.  It was not sustainable, but they aren’t that far off, especially with these additions.

Minnesota made the most sense to me to be honest (not just saying that, I called it before free agency began too).  This is a retirement contract for Parise and Suter.  Parise is from there and Suter’s wife is from there.  Family ties clearly pulled at the players hard.  On top of it, there is something special about going home and bringing your home town team a championship.  Parise gets the chance to be a hometown hero over the next decade.  If you can blame him for that decision, you gave up rational thoughts long ago.

"Destiny Has a New Home."  Maybe it went to Minnesota?

On Pittsburgh Not Getting Them:

I have no problem with not getting Parise.  It would have been nice but it was a luxury.  The Pens are one of the top goal scoring teams in the league and still have Crosby, Malkin and Neal to lead the way.  They are not hurt by not getting Parise; it just would have been a nice present.  Missing out on Suter hurts more, but the Pens were never on his radar so it doesn’t appear to be a surprise.  When it comes down to it, shelling out $98 million to either of these players wasn’t a necessity for the Penguins to compete, and it’s an acceptable “loss”.  Also, Shero said in his press conference that the Pens did not miss out on any other players by waiting for these 2; it was Parise and/or Suter or bust.  So take it for what it is, nothing changed.

On Where the Pens Stand Now:

This is the part where I’ll be a little up in arms.  The Pens are a worse team than they were 2 weeks ago.  This bothers me right now and will bother me until it changes.  Vokoun was a great addition to back up Fleury.  The Staal deal was fine, no issues there – I like Brandon Sutter a lot and I think he will do a great job as a 3^rd line center and will have more offensive potential than people realize.  I have no problem letting go of Asham either, I believe Tanner Glass is an improvement on him.  Losing Sullivan to Phoenix today hurt the powerplay a lot, but he is replaceable as a regular winger and I think Shero will find someone to do the job.

So my issue: Michalek for a bag of pucks.  Shero has a lot of cap room to work with and doesn’t seem to need it yet (even if the Pens spend to the cap, you’re allowed to go $7 million over the cap in the summer).  Michalek could have been traded for a bag of pucks the day before the season started if necessary, but there was no reason to get him out right away.  I realize he requested a trade and it was professional courtesy, but I wonder if it should have been more of a hockey trade than a salary dump given how everything has evolved.  And no, I did not take this stance as soon as we lost out on Parise; I didn’t like the trade initially and wrote the same thing right after it happened.  The Pens lack a true defensive defenseman right now and they got nothing back for the one they had under contract.

Scoring doesn't bother me.  This bothers me.

On What the Pens Should Do Next:

The free agent market is awful.  If I was forced to pick 2 free agents I would want at this point, they would be Peter Mueller and Chris Campoli.  I do like Mueller a lot, but he is a major injury risk.  Campoli has been moved around a lot at only the age of 27 and probably can’t be relied on more than a 3^rd pair defenseman (which I would still take at the right price).  The story is the same; the Pens could use a winger and NEED a defenseman in my opinion.  I would expect Shero to make a depth signing in the free agent market like he usually does, but nothing flashy or important.

Shero will surely scour the trade market where he has robbed so many teams, but I think the prices will be too high at first.  It may be a quiet few weeks before the Pens make a move, if any.  There are an awful lot of teams with too much cap room right now (Pens – 11 mil, Rangers – 16 mil, Wings – 17 mil, Caps – 19 mil).  Prepare to see some insanity throughout the upcoming season.

Final Thoughts:

For what it’s worth, the Penguins are on Rick Nash’s short list of approved teams that he would be willing to go to.

Shero has had some tough attempts with free agents, but has done wonders on the trade market.  He is not a bad GM.  Parise wanted to go home.  Hamhuis wanted to go home.  Hossa wanted to go to a better team (Detroit had just beaten his team, it was logical).  Jagr wanted more money.  His gains from Guerin, Kunitz, Dupuis, Neal, Niskanen, etc. far outweigh his free agency troubles.  One may argue he struck out on UFA’s Martin and Michalek.  Michalek has a reasonable deal if you look around the NHL.  Martin is overpaid, but I personally think he will have a much better season this year than last.  It’s hard to judge a 5 year contract without 5 years passing.  Look at Gonchar’s tenure here if you can’t understand that.

Here is my rough predicted Pens lineup as of right now:

Kunitz – Crosby – Dupuis

Cooke – Malkin - Neal

Jeffrey – Sutter – Kennedy

Glass – Vitale – Adams

Tangradi (RFA) – Peters

Letang – Orpik

Niskanen – Martin

Lovejoy – Engelland

Reese

Fleury

Vokoun

This roster still needs work, regardless of what Shero says about being comfortable with it.  It's not a bad team, but it's not a Cup winner either.  Who is next on your wishlist?  The next podcast will be recorded tonight and posted tomorrow.

News and Notes on Free Agency Eve

Niskanen Re-Signs

The Pens now have 6 defensemen on the NHL roster as they re-signed Matt Niskanen to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $2.3 million each year.  He will actually make $2.1 million next year and $2.5 million the following year, a smart move with a potential lockout looming as ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted.  Niskanen went from one of the most hated to one of the most loved Penguins in the span of a year as he adjusted to and thrived in Bylsma’s quick moving system.

Does Staal score this goal without Niski?  No he doesn't.

Analysis:  My guess was 2 years, $4.5 million total so I think it’s a solid deal!  It falls right in line with a contract I had mentioned on Friday’s podcast when Columbus defenseman Nikita Nikitin signed a 2 year, $4.3 million deal.  I imagine Niskanen wanted a longer deal and Shero probably would have liked a 1 year deal, so they settled on two.  When this deal expires, many of the Pens young defensemen will be ready for the NHL, so Niskanen will certainly have to play well in the second year of this deal to stay in Pittsburgh.

Thiessen Re-Signs

After not being tendered a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, Brad Thiessen still re-signed with the Penguins for 1 year on a two-way contract that will pay him $525,000 at the NHL level.  Thiessen saw limited NHL time last year while Brent Johnson was struggling/injured.  He will likely start for the Baby Pens, sitting 3^rd on the depth chart behind Fleury and Vokoun.

Thiessen will face tougher opponents in the AHL
than he did in the NHL last year.

Analysis:  I am quite surprised Thiessen is back after the Pens signed Vokoun and acquired 3 goalies last weekend (2 drafted, 1 via trade with Phoenix).  But at the NHL minimum, he does bring a plethora of AHL experience and success, along with some NHL experience if Fleury or Vokoun get hurt.  This will probably be his last year with the franchise I would think.

Parise Watch

With less than 24 hours to go until Free Agency opens up, Parise watch is in full swing.  He will be with his agent in Ontario tomorrow basically fielding offers/visits/calls/singing telegrams (call me maybe?).  Rob Rossi, Josh Yohe, and some others have reported they expect the Pens to offer a deal around $75-$80 million over 10 years.  It is not expected to be front-loaded (Shero hates giving out front-loaded deals, Crosby is truly the exception).  Here’s my take on the front-runners for Parise:

At least one jersey won't change for Parise.

Minnesota – Parise is originally from Minneapolis and Minnesota is looking to make a big splash by luring him back home.  They will certainly offer a lot of money, I would guess around $10 million per year, and likely a similar length to the Pens deal if that’s what Parise wants.  They may be the worst of the teams with a shot to get him, but don’t discount the fact that Minnesota was in first place in the West for a little bit last year.  They aren’t as bad as people think.

Strengths: Hometown, Money

Detroit – The Wings have a plethora of cap space and will look to sign both Parise and Suter in one swift move.  There had been rumors that the 2 players were interested in going to the same place, so keep that in mind.  I’m guessing Detroit will offer the longest term in the same way they have given Zetterberg and Datsyuk long deals.  The Wings have the potential of offering the most money, years, and a chance to play with a winner.  Don’t forget, as Pens fans bank on Parise wanting to play with Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk is kinda a decent and well-respected player too…

Strengths: Money, Winner, Datsyuk?

New Jersey – New Jersey has put themselves in quite the pickle with money.  News came out earlier this week that they could not commit money to Martin Brodeur yet, so Brodeur hired agent Pat Brisson (Crosby’s agent) and will test out the free agent market tomorrow.  The wording of this was very telling, “commit”.  My hypothesis is they cannot commit the money because they want a final answer from Parise first, only after that can they commit money to Brodeur (if he even waits for them).  Parise has played for the Devils his entire career and will certainly be drawn to return based on the Cup Final run that ended just weeks ago.  He knows what he is getting into with New Jersey, and to some players, that means a lot.

Strengths: “Home”/Familiarity, Winner

Pittsburgh – The Pens are banking heavily on the “Crosby effect” to lure Parise in.  Their offer will be for a long term, though it will likely be one of the lowest offers Parise receives and it will not be front loaded.  Much of the fanfare around Parise coming to Pittsburgh surrounds the idea that he would want to play with Sidney Crosby, would take less money to do so, and would come here to try and build a long-lasting dynasty.  Fans want winners, owners want winners, but we don’t quite know what every player wants.  Also, don’t expect Shero to offer anything that could possibly jeopardize Malkin’s long term contract coming after next year (10 yrs/80 mil does not fyi).

Strengths: Winner, Crosby

Rest of the League – Undoubtedly there will be at least 10 more offers in addition to the ones I have listed above.  Free Agency is pure insanity, so who knows what team comes out of left field with a big offer that might draw Parise in.  The Rangers?  The Kings?  The Flyers?  Who wouldn’t want Zach Parise?  So while those 4 may be the front runners, anything could happen.

Final Thoughts: Years and a front-loaded deal could be the tie-breakers when it comes to the Parise sweepstakes.  I would not be shocked if this goes beyond July 1^st as he considers a dozen offers and plays teams against each other in a bidding war.  Unfortunately, the Pens cannot keep up in a bidding war, or even in the original bids.  While Pens fans want to say Parise should come to Pittsburgh if he wants to play for a winner, the other 29 teams are trying to build a winner too, and New Jersey (and many others) came closer to it than the Pens have in the past 3 years.  To be honest, I do not foresee Parise taking less money to play in Pittsburgh.  I’ll make my final prediction tomorrow, but unless something drastically changes in the next 19ish hours, it won’t be Pittsburgh.

UPDATED: KDKA is reporting that Parise's top 2 choices are Minnesota and Pittsburgh at this point.  While I find this hard to believe since free agency doesn't begin for another 17 hours and Parise has no clue what he will be offered by other teams, if that's the case, my prediction is Minnesota.  Again though, I find this very hard to believe.

Other Free Agents

Ryan Suter – Suter will be hanging out at his farm in Wisconsin tomorrow and taking phone calls throughout the day.  Pittsburgh will be in the mix, though they will surely be beat in terms of money.  Detroit is the heavy favorite according to many, and Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Anaheim and Edmonton are expected to also make offers (along with others).  Nashville isn’t quite out of the running yet, though it looks unlikely that Suter will return.  Suter places a high value on comfort and lifestyle for his family, so money may not be the biggest factor in this decision.  One thing that may hurt Pittsburgh: the treatment of Paul Martin.  If Suter does not live up to his contract, I’m not sure he wants to risk putting his family through what Martin has dealt with in Pittsburgh.

Shero has a thing for acquiring former Predators.
(O'Reilly and Sullivan)

Jason Garrison – The hopefully not one hit wonder defenseman for the Panthers is still in negotiations with the team, though they do not look very fruitful as he is due a major raise from his $700k salary.  There is a slight chance that the Panthers may trade his rights late and Vancouver is inquiring about it after missing out on Justin Schultz (agreed to terms with Edmonton).  Is a Luongo trade in the mix with this one in the next 18 hours?

PA Parenteau – The pass happy Isles forward is certain to test free agent waters tomorrow, though he will continue talking to the Isles after the clock hits noon.  It’s rumored that the Avs and Sens will be in hard on him, and the Avs have a lot of cap space to overpay offer him.  I would expect every team that loses the Parise sweepstakes to give him a call as well, further driving up his price.  It’s a good year to be Parenteau.

Shane Doan – Much like Parenteau, every team that loses on Parise will quickly turn to Doan.  There have even been rumors that Jonathan Toews was trying to recruit him personally for the Blackhawks.  Doan has expressed a preference for staying in Phoenix, but uncertainty around the team will likely lead to him listening to offers on Sunday.  Look for Chicago, Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Phoenix to lead the rush to Doan pending the Parise situation.

I’ll leave it at that for now; keep up with the rest on Twitter!  Thanks for reading!

Offseason '12: Podcast #1

Discussing the Staal and Michalek trades, Parise and Suter possibilities, and other free agents as we head to July 1st.

Enjoy and critique!