News and Notes on Free Agency Eve

Niskanen Re-Signs

The Pens now have 6 defensemen on the NHL roster as they re-signed Matt Niskanen to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $2.3 million each year.  He will actually make $2.1 million next year and $2.5 million the following year, a smart move with a potential lockout looming as ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted.  Niskanen went from one of the most hated to one of the most loved Penguins in the span of a year as he adjusted to and thrived in Bylsma’s quick moving system.

Does Staal score this goal without Niski?  No he doesn't.

Analysis:  My guess was 2 years, $4.5 million total so I think it’s a solid deal!  It falls right in line with a contract I had mentioned on Friday’s podcast when Columbus defenseman Nikita Nikitin signed a 2 year, $4.3 million deal.  I imagine Niskanen wanted a longer deal and Shero probably would have liked a 1 year deal, so they settled on two.  When this deal expires, many of the Pens young defensemen will be ready for the NHL, so Niskanen will certainly have to play well in the second year of this deal to stay in Pittsburgh.

Thiessen Re-Signs

After not being tendered a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, Brad Thiessen still re-signed with the Penguins for 1 year on a two-way contract that will pay him $525,000 at the NHL level.  Thiessen saw limited NHL time last year while Brent Johnson was struggling/injured.  He will likely start for the Baby Pens, sitting 3^rd on the depth chart behind Fleury and Vokoun.

Thiessen will face tougher opponents in the AHL
than he did in the NHL last year.

Analysis:  I am quite surprised Thiessen is back after the Pens signed Vokoun and acquired 3 goalies last weekend (2 drafted, 1 via trade with Phoenix).  But at the NHL minimum, he does bring a plethora of AHL experience and success, along with some NHL experience if Fleury or Vokoun get hurt.  This will probably be his last year with the franchise I would think.

Parise Watch

With less than 24 hours to go until Free Agency opens up, Parise watch is in full swing.  He will be with his agent in Ontario tomorrow basically fielding offers/visits/calls/singing telegrams (call me maybe?).  Rob Rossi, Josh Yohe, and some others have reported they expect the Pens to offer a deal around $75-$80 million over 10 years.  It is not expected to be front-loaded (Shero hates giving out front-loaded deals, Crosby is truly the exception).  Here’s my take on the front-runners for Parise:

At least one jersey won't change for Parise.

Minnesota – Parise is originally from Minneapolis and Minnesota is looking to make a big splash by luring him back home.  They will certainly offer a lot of money, I would guess around $10 million per year, and likely a similar length to the Pens deal if that’s what Parise wants.  They may be the worst of the teams with a shot to get him, but don’t discount the fact that Minnesota was in first place in the West for a little bit last year.  They aren’t as bad as people think.

Strengths: Hometown, Money

Detroit – The Wings have a plethora of cap space and will look to sign both Parise and Suter in one swift move.  There had been rumors that the 2 players were interested in going to the same place, so keep that in mind.  I’m guessing Detroit will offer the longest term in the same way they have given Zetterberg and Datsyuk long deals.  The Wings have the potential of offering the most money, years, and a chance to play with a winner.  Don’t forget, as Pens fans bank on Parise wanting to play with Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk is kinda a decent and well-respected player too…

Strengths: Money, Winner, Datsyuk?

New Jersey – New Jersey has put themselves in quite the pickle with money.  News came out earlier this week that they could not commit money to Martin Brodeur yet, so Brodeur hired agent Pat Brisson (Crosby’s agent) and will test out the free agent market tomorrow.  The wording of this was very telling, “commit”.  My hypothesis is they cannot commit the money because they want a final answer from Parise first, only after that can they commit money to Brodeur (if he even waits for them).  Parise has played for the Devils his entire career and will certainly be drawn to return based on the Cup Final run that ended just weeks ago.  He knows what he is getting into with New Jersey, and to some players, that means a lot.

Strengths: “Home”/Familiarity, Winner

Pittsburgh – The Pens are banking heavily on the “Crosby effect” to lure Parise in.  Their offer will be for a long term, though it will likely be one of the lowest offers Parise receives and it will not be front loaded.  Much of the fanfare around Parise coming to Pittsburgh surrounds the idea that he would want to play with Sidney Crosby, would take less money to do so, and would come here to try and build a long-lasting dynasty.  Fans want winners, owners want winners, but we don’t quite know what every player wants.  Also, don’t expect Shero to offer anything that could possibly jeopardize Malkin’s long term contract coming after next year (10 yrs/80 mil does not fyi).

Strengths: Winner, Crosby

Rest of the League – Undoubtedly there will be at least 10 more offers in addition to the ones I have listed above.  Free Agency is pure insanity, so who knows what team comes out of left field with a big offer that might draw Parise in.  The Rangers?  The Kings?  The Flyers?  Who wouldn’t want Zach Parise?  So while those 4 may be the front runners, anything could happen.

Final Thoughts: Years and a front-loaded deal could be the tie-breakers when it comes to the Parise sweepstakes.  I would not be shocked if this goes beyond July 1^st as he considers a dozen offers and plays teams against each other in a bidding war.  Unfortunately, the Pens cannot keep up in a bidding war, or even in the original bids.  While Pens fans want to say Parise should come to Pittsburgh if he wants to play for a winner, the other 29 teams are trying to build a winner too, and New Jersey (and many others) came closer to it than the Pens have in the past 3 years.  To be honest, I do not foresee Parise taking less money to play in Pittsburgh.  I’ll make my final prediction tomorrow, but unless something drastically changes in the next 19ish hours, it won’t be Pittsburgh.

UPDATED: KDKA is reporting that Parise's top 2 choices are Minnesota and Pittsburgh at this point.  While I find this hard to believe since free agency doesn't begin for another 17 hours and Parise has no clue what he will be offered by other teams, if that's the case, my prediction is Minnesota.  Again though, I find this very hard to believe.

Other Free Agents

Ryan Suter – Suter will be hanging out at his farm in Wisconsin tomorrow and taking phone calls throughout the day.  Pittsburgh will be in the mix, though they will surely be beat in terms of money.  Detroit is the heavy favorite according to many, and Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Anaheim and Edmonton are expected to also make offers (along with others).  Nashville isn’t quite out of the running yet, though it looks unlikely that Suter will return.  Suter places a high value on comfort and lifestyle for his family, so money may not be the biggest factor in this decision.  One thing that may hurt Pittsburgh: the treatment of Paul Martin.  If Suter does not live up to his contract, I’m not sure he wants to risk putting his family through what Martin has dealt with in Pittsburgh.

Shero has a thing for acquiring former Predators.
(O'Reilly and Sullivan)

Jason Garrison – The hopefully not one hit wonder defenseman for the Panthers is still in negotiations with the team, though they do not look very fruitful as he is due a major raise from his $700k salary.  There is a slight chance that the Panthers may trade his rights late and Vancouver is inquiring about it after missing out on Justin Schultz (agreed to terms with Edmonton).  Is a Luongo trade in the mix with this one in the next 18 hours?

PA Parenteau – The pass happy Isles forward is certain to test free agent waters tomorrow, though he will continue talking to the Isles after the clock hits noon.  It’s rumored that the Avs and Sens will be in hard on him, and the Avs have a lot of cap space to overpay offer him.  I would expect every team that loses the Parise sweepstakes to give him a call as well, further driving up his price.  It’s a good year to be Parenteau.

Shane Doan – Much like Parenteau, every team that loses on Parise will quickly turn to Doan.  There have even been rumors that Jonathan Toews was trying to recruit him personally for the Blackhawks.  Doan has expressed a preference for staying in Phoenix, but uncertainty around the team will likely lead to him listening to offers on Sunday.  Look for Chicago, Detroit, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, and Phoenix to lead the rush to Doan pending the Parise situation.

I’ll leave it at that for now; keep up with the rest on Twitter!  Thanks for reading!