The Jordan Staal Saga

For anyone who cares about where Jordan Staal will call home in the future, this week has been a crazy one.  FYI – that group includes Pens fans, NHL media, some NHL fans, and oh yeah, his fiancé that he will marry today.

Sorry puck bunnies, he's off the market.
Sorry Pens fans, he might be on the market.

It all began on this past Monday, when the Trib’s Rob Rossi reported that he had heard Carolina made a rough offer of Brandon Sutter, Justin Faulk, and the 8th overall pick for Jordan Staal. Fan reaction went crazy, which was rather hilarious to watch. Canes fans felt they were giving up too much. Pens fans felt it wasn’t enough. Regardless, the questions about Staal’s future went into overdrive. (Personally, I’d take that deal in a heartbeat.)

There had been several rumors and touchy-feely stories suggesting that Jordan would like to play in Carolina with his brother Eric and that Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford was looking for a player of Jordan’s talents (without naming him, to avoid tampering), but nothing was concrete about anyone’s intentions until Rossi came out with that gem.

Maybe Jordan can teach Eric about positioning.

Less than 48 hours later, Dave Molinari of the PG began tweeting out a different story.  It was one that included a talk with Pens GM Ray Shero.  Amongst the topics: Staal hadn’t told the Pens he wanted to leave, Shero was not negotiating trades even though teams were interested, and Shero wanted to sign Staal (not trade him).  The Trib joined in with the Shero talk and all of the news outlets finally reported that Shero intends to sign Staal and that the masses could calm down now.

The masses did calm down, and Pittsburgh began to prepare for the draft before abruptly being shocked yet again within 48 hours.  TSN’s Bob McKenzie, the worldwide leader in hockey transactions as far as I’m concerned, tweeted out that Staal turned down a 10 year (rumored to be $60 million) deal and told the Penguins he did not want to negotiate now.  His agent would not say more than he did not want to negotiate a contract extension at this time, leaving the NHL masses to start speculating where he wants to go again. 

As of right now, we are left with rumors that Jordan is open to negotiating with Carolina if a trade can be made...but no word on anything else, including the Penguins.

So Jordan, why do you not want to negotiate a contract right now?  Is it because you are a Top 2 center stuck in a 3^rd center’s role?  Maybe you want to go play with Eric?  Perhaps you just want to wait and see what your options are?  Maybe it’s even because you’re getting married in a matter of hours?!?  (I don’t think it’s the latter one, if that was the case there wouldn’t have been a rejection leaked, just no word at all).

Top Pens scorer of the playoffs, doesn't want to stay?

Everything from here on is just my speculation and thoughts:

First off, this news does nothing but hurt Shero’s poker hand a little bit.  Staal’s trade value drops immediately if he won’t negotiate a deal before becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Now there are many paths this could take:

1) Shero feels the need to trade Staal now because he is getting the best offers he thinks he may get.  Staal is traded this offseason, life goes on.

2) The Pens continue to negotiate with Staal later this summer and sign him before the season starts.

3) The Pens decide to keep him for his value on the ice and make one last strong push for a Cup with their 3 center system.  Staal either:

a) re-signs next June before becoming a UFA,

b) has his rights traded for a mid to late round draft pick before July 1^st, or

c) walks for nothing on July 1^st.

4) The Pens keep him but decide to trade him at the deadline due to his performance, their performance, or the idea of getting a return on him.  His value will be diminished greatly unless traded to a contender who can sign him long term.

5) Wanting to maximize trade value, the Pens trade Staal this summer with the intentions of trying to bring him back as a UFA next summer.  It is rare, but this move has happened before (more likely for veterans at the trade deadline). 

If I was betting on this, I would certainly favor either 1) or 2) and I would have to be leaning 1) pretty heavily.  Shero has a team to assemble for next year, a captain to re-sign to a long term extension, and a new CBA and potential salary cap to worry about.  He is not going to let Staal sit in the driver’s seat.  The last time he let a player into the driver’s seat, Marian Hossa turned down a long term deal to go to Detroit.  So what do I think Shero will do?  I think he will do what is best for his franchise, which likely amounts to trading Staal this summer rather than risk no return on a very valuable asset.

For those of you that thought Sutter, Faulk, and 1^st rounder weren’t enough for Staal? – get ready for a lower return.  The Pens are destined to lose any possible deal on the sheer fact that Staal will be the best player involved.  Let’s just hope Shero can get a return that helps us win another Cup.

And FYI – I want Staal to stay, I’m a big fan of keeping him around.  I just don’t see that being a likely path unless he decides he’s willing to negotiate a long term deal soon.

EDIT - another interesting note, per Dejan Kovacevic of the Trib...the Pens leaked the news to the media, not Staal's camp.  That's a very interesting move for a team that just hurt their own trade value if that's the case.