Day 1: Lockout Underway

What Happens Now?

Worst case scenario...and not close to happening yet.

As we all counted down in a pointless fashion on twitter, the NHL and NHLPA rested comfortably in their beds.  There were no last minute negotiations, nor any negotiations on the last day before the CBA expired at all.  But here’s a question, does it make a difference? 

As of 12:00am on 9/16, teams can no longer use players as marketing devices.  Teams also cannot perform any transactions (signings, trades, etc) at all.  Players can no longer use team facilities and are not getting paid right now (though I believe everyone receives at least $100,000 in escrow payments to get them through such tough times, we could all be so lucky).

What changes though?  Nothing happened so far and nothing is happening now.  Training camps will be delayed…but they haven’t been yet.  No games have been cancelled yet.  Nothing has changed.  This artificial midnight deadline means literally nothing and will continue to mean nothing until something important (read: a regular season game) is cancelled.  Just remember that as you freak out about how there is currently a lockout.

Other Lockout Thoughts:

The Essential Problem:

The owners want the players to give up some of their share of revenue.  The players refuse to accept such a fate, whether it be via revenue splits or a salary rollback.  Even the definition of hockey related revenue seems to no longer be at issue; it’s just a matter of honoring contracts that have been signed and paying out revenue to the players.  The NHL and NHLPA both have taken the stance that there is no point in negotiating until the other side backs off of their desires a bit.  So how will this be resolved?  Either the owners have to honor everything as is or the players have to accept less money.  Once that happens, there will be a middle ground to create a common framework and then things will fall in place quickly.  This part will take a while, especially because Fehr will keep the players united.  The owners still have the upper hand though, so this could last a while for that reason.

Who’s At Fault:

This is a messy question and answer that most hockey fans seem to screw up.  The answer is EVERYONE.  Players aren’t budging, that isn’t good for the game or the fans.  Owners aren’t budging, same thing.  Fehr is representing his side properly, as is Bettman.  They are both doing their jobs and trying to get the best for their clients.  Personally, I think both sides are being absurdly greedy.  One side gets paid to play a game and other side makes money off of people playing a game.  If you can side with either group there, I question your logic a little bit.

This man is worth $2 billion.
Take a second and blame him.
Bet you didn't even know he existed.

While I do blame both the owners and players, both Bettman and Fehr, one thing is increasingly clear:  the top owners based on net worth in the NHL are ABSURD.  Jeremy Jacobs owns the Boston Bruins.  He is a billionaire and he is the leader of the owners.  He was at all of the meetings talking about how the owners needed lower salaries or more revenue.  He then signed Brad Marchand, Tyler Seguin, and Milan Lucic to long-term and lucrative deals in the week before the lockout.  Ummmm, what?!?  Other owners have done it to (Washington, Dallas, etc lately).  THAT is the problem.  The owners that can flex their bank accounts are doing so, but arguing that things need to change for the low budget owners.  Meanwhile, look at those low budget owners – Tampa Bay, New Jersey, etc – no long deals right before the lockout, they know what they need to fight for right now.  Owners like Jacobs are the ones hurting the NHL by arguing for the little guy but then bullying the market and spending like a big guy.  It should be one or the other, not both.  (With that being said though, the players are not in the clear either, taking 10-20% less to play a GAME is not nearly as unreasonable as one might have you think).

The owners will remain united though because if the top owners get what they want, the low budget ones will still get what they need as well.  This is a staring contest now.  Who is going to blink first and when will it happen?  My guess is the players will have to concede first, but I wish I could tell you when.  (I’m still thinking a Nov 23^rd start date, but I waiver on that constantly).

What Now for Fans?

GET A LIFE.  NHL 13 is a favorite for people to turn to as hockey seems to disappear.  Don’t forget in this internet age, you can watch and stream hockey from pretty much anywhere.  AHL, OHL, NCAA, WHL, KHL, etc. – name a league, find it online, follow it, watch it, stop complaining and remember that you love HOCKEY.  The NHL is one product.  What happens when a product disappears?  YOU REPLACE IT.  Want the best way to protest the NHL?  Do nothing and move on.

Podcast will be recorded tomorrow with a ton of transactions and hockey angst.  Pens AHL roster updates to come soon as well.  Thanks for reading!