Second Round Predictions: 2012 Conference Semifinals

Well, after going 2 for 8 in the first round, you can probably just guess the opposite of my picks and do quite well.  I was right with the Rangers in 7 and the Devils winning in the first round.  Despite my awful first round record, I shall continue on and try to predict the second round just in hopes that I can accidentally look smart to everyone!  Weird fact going into the second round: there is one of each seed, 1-8, left in the playoffs.  Neat.

*PS – Though I am posting these after the Conference Semis are already underway, I’m sticking with the picks I made before the first game started…which is also why I look even more stupid now as I picked the Preds in 5.

#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings

Offense:  In the regular season, the Blues finished 21^st in scoring and the Kings finished 29^th.  In the playoffs, the Blues are currently 4^th and the Kings are 8^th.  Despite the difference in rankings, I am going to give the edge to the Kings on potential.  They added Jeff Carter late in the season and faced a tougher goalie in the first round.  If Carter can get on the scoreboard, the Kings will boast more scoring depth than the Blues.  Edge – Los Angeles 

Defense:  Both teams have strong defensive systems and great young defenders.  The Blues are led by youngsters Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk.  Meanwhile, the Kings have a strong mix of young stars like Drew Doughty and playoff veterans like Rob Scuderi.  The Blues finished 1^st in defense in the regular season and are currently 1^st in the playoffs.  The Kings finished 2^nd in the regular season and are currently tied for 1^st in the playoffs.  The Blues forwards generally show more defensive prowess though.  Edge – St. Louis

Goaltending:  Brian Elliott has a 1.37 GAA and .949 Save % , while Jonathan Quick has a 1.59 GAA and .953 Save % in the playoffs.  Both goalies finished in the Top 5 for most stats in the regular season as well.  Quick is a Vezina candidate, and Elliott probably would have been if he had more games played.  The longer history of success for Quick is really the only difference maker in this matchup.  Edge – Los Angeles

Special Teams:  Both teams have great penalty kills due to their defensive prowess, but LA struggles on the PP while St. Louis was clicking at over 30% in the first round.  That difference could be huge in this series when goals are hard to come by.  Edge – St. Louis

Coaching:  Ken Hitchcock has a Stanley Cup ring.  Darryl Sutter has quite a few first round exits, making this abnormal territory for him.  Edge – St. Louis

Result:  Kings in 6.  I can’t pick against Jonathan Quick basically.  It’s that simple.

#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #4 Nashville Predators

Offense:  Nashville quietly had a Top 10 offense this season and is currently 5^th in the playoffs.  Phoenix’s offense struggled in the bottom half of the league all season, but looked quite capable against the Blackhawks in the 1^st round as they finished the round ranked 3^rd.  Both teams get by without “big name” scorers in their lineup.  The Preds benefit greatly from having more offensive help from their blue line though.  Edge - Nashville

Defense:  Both teams were in the top 10 in defense this season (Nashville 10^th, Phoenix 5^th).  Nashville tends to depend more on their big defensive guys in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter while Phoenix focuses more on a team defensive system.  Both teams also shut down high powered offenses in Detroit and Chicago respectively in the first round.  I can’t go against Shea Weber’s beard out of fear.  Edge - Nashville

Goaltending:  Pekka Rinne vs. Mike Smith.  Both goalies are Top 10 in pretty much every stat, they had similar stats in the playoffs, and they both made arguments for a Vezina nomination (which Rinne received and Smith did not.)  Smith was the hotter goalie going into the playoffs while Rinne looked shaky at times, so that’s the kicker to me.  Edge - Phoenix

Special Teams:  The teams were close on the PK, with Nashville 8^th and Phoenix 10^th.  The big decisive factor is that Nashville was 1^st on the PP in the regular season while Phoenix was 29^th.  First round numbers don’t matter for that kind of a difference.  Edge - Nashville

Coaching:  Nashville’s Barry Trotz and Phoenix’s Dave Tippett are both amazing coaches when it comes to getting the most out of their teams through discipline and hard work.  Neither has been all that successful in the playoffs until this year though.  I believe Tippett is working with less talent and has taken his team just as far as Nashville, so I favor him ever so slightly in this matchup.  Edge - Phoenix

Result:  Preds in 5.  Nashville has already exorcized a demon in getting past Detroit in stunning fashion.  The Preds have built their team up specifically for this playoff run, and Phoenix just won’t have the depth to handle it.

#1 New York Rangers vs. #7 Washington Capitals

Offense:  Both teams had very similar offensive performances in both the regular season and the playoffs so far.  The Rangers may have a stronger set of 4 lines that can put the puck in the net, but the biggest raw talent on either team belongs to Washington with Ovechkin.  Edge - Washington

Defense:  The Capitals have finally learned how to play playoff hockey with a defense-first system that the whole team has committed to, even Alexander Semin.  The Rangers have always played a very strong defensive system, with an emphasis on shot blocking and protecting Henrik Lundqvist.  The Rangers defense is strong through all 3 pairings, while the Caps don’t necessarily have a standout defensive defenseman right now.  Edge – New York

Goaltending:  Henrik Lundqvist earned nominations for the Vezina and Hart trophies this week for his fantastic regular season play.  Meanwhile, Braden Holtby, still wet behind the ears, has entered the playoff fray as a young unknown who has come out of nowhere to take the league by storm.  While hot goalies are great in the playoffs, they fizzle out eventually.  Edge – New York

Special Teams:  Neither team had a strong PP in the regular season, but the Rangers at least sent out the 5^th best PK unit in the league, led by their defense.  Meanwhile, the Caps have the 2^nd best PK in the playoffs, though it should be discounted based on the fact that their 1^st round opponent, Boston, has been awful on the powerplay in recent playoff history.  All in all, there’s no real winner in this matchup.  Edge - Even

Coaching:  Dale Hunter has had a ton of success in the OHL, limited success in his playoff runs as a player, and is coaching in the NHL for the first time.  John Tortorella has already won a Stanley Cup and knows how to press the buttons of his team quite well by now.  Experience is a big factor in the playoffs.  Edge – New York

Result:  Rangers in 6.  Defense wins championships, and while the Caps have shown a strong new commitment to defense, they don’t have the personnel to handle it quite like the Rangers do.  Defensive depth wins this low scoring series.

#5 Philadelphia Flyers vs. #6 New Jersey Devils

Offense:  The Flyers ranked 2^nd in offense in the regular season and had a monster 1^st round, crushing Pittsburgh with their offensive depth.  It doesn’t even matter what New Jersey can do (average offense if you are curious).  Edge - Philadelphia

Defense:  Philadelphia’s defense was nothing special in the first round.  Meanwhile New Jersey’s was a bit better, but not spectacular either.  There was a big difference in the regular season between these two however, as New Jersey had a top 10 defense and Philadelphia was in the bottom 10.   Edge – New Jersey

Goaltending:  In recent history, neither Bryzgalov nor Brodeur has looked sharp in the playoffs.  Beyond recent history, Brodeur has had just a little bit of playoff success (multiple Stanley Cups are impressive I guess).  Bryzgalov can’t be trusted as he didn’t look strong in the Pittsburgh series either.  Edge – New Jersey

Special Teams:  Philadelphia had a top 5 powerplay in the regular season and absolutely destroyed Pittsburgh (who had the 3^rd ranked PK in the regular season) in the 1^st round, scoring on over half of their chances.  New Jersey had the best PK in the regular season, but only killed at a 69% rate in the playoffs.  With PK’s suffering in the playoffs, Philadelphia’s powerplay gets a huge advantage.  Edge - Philadelphia

Coaching:  Peter Laviolette pretty much crushed Dan Bylsma in coaching strategy and adjustments in the first round.  He has gone deep in the playoffs before and has a Stanley Cup ring from his time with the Hurricanes.  Peter DeBoer is currently on his first ever playoff run in the NHL as a head coach, after coaching the team he just beat (Florida) to 3 playoff-less seasons.  Edge - Philadelphia

Result:  Devils in 7.  Despite Philadelphia having a majority of the advantages, which will win them some games, I would put my money on Brodeur making a strong push in what could possibly be his last year in the NHL.  Bryzgalov just isn’t trustworthy enough for me.

2012 Pens Playoff Performance in Review.

Now that the team has had their final meetings and press conference, including the all-important “injuries that we hid from the world” disclosure, it’s time to take a look back at the playoffs, and eventually the season, and what’s that?  Half of you have already traded away some combination of Staal, Malkin, Crosby, Shero, and Bylsma for the 1976 Soviet team?  AND FOR SHEA WEBER’S BEARD???  Brilliant trade proposal, but anyways, let’s take some time to mourn the team as is and take a look back at the ever so short playoff run that ended on Sunday.

The long uncertain stares of a team that knows its fate. 

#4 Penguins vs. #5 Flyers: Brief Summary

Game 1:  4-3 (OT) Loss.  The Pens roared out to an incredible 3-0 lead before backing into a defensive shell that forgot to include defense.  The Flyers scored their 1^st goal on an offside play and the Pens showed the defensive fortitude of “Alex” Kovalev the rest of the way.  Fleury kept the team alive, but OT doesn’t get you a point in the playoffs as a wide open “Jake” Voracek gave the Flyers the win and a series lead they would not relinquish.

Game 2:  8-5 Loss.  The Pens came out strong again, posting up a 3-1 lead after the first period which even saw a Paul Martin goal!  But yet again, the defense failed, as did the special teams.  The powerplay allowed 2 short-handed goals and the penalty kill allowed a powerplay goal as both Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier recorded hat tricks.  The Pens simply could not keep momentum for longer than a minute and the Flyers took advantage every single time.

Talbot was a big key to Laviolette winning the coaching matchup.

Game 3:  8-3 Loss:  A trip to Philly turned the series into an ugly disgrace that was embarrassing to the concept of hockey.  The Pens played the role of sore-losers as Crosby dropped the gloves with Giroux and then tried to fight Brayden Schenn and/or Scott Hartnell.  Arron Asham cross-checked Schenn and then punched his face into the ice.  Craig Adams had to jump into a fight with Hartnell as 3^rd man in, which also cost Bylsma $10k, to protect Sid.  James Neal started head-hunting Giroux after crushing Couturier.  This was not a hockey game; this was a display of immaturity and a lack of common sense.

Game 4:  10-3 Win: The Pens finally brought their puck possession game, scoring 5 goals a piece on Bryzgalov and Bobrovsky and demonstrating just how dominant they could be when they did not turn the puck over and take massive amounts of needless penalties.  Jordan Staal led the way with a hat trick and the powerplay scored 4 goals in what looked to be a beautiful potential series-turning game.

Half of Pens nation had traded him away before
he came out with his first playoff hat trick.

Game 5:  3-2 Win:  Coming back home to a raucous home crowd, filled with belief, the team put together their closest attempt at a full 60 minute game all series, capped off by Fleury’s refusal to be beat in the 3^rd period.  There were still ample amounts of stupid penalties, but Fleury’s magnificent play towards the end and another brilliant game by the Staal line kept the Pens in the series.

Game 6:  5-1 Loss, End of Series:  It apparently took all of 2 wins for the Pens to fall back into awful habits.  They were outworked in the final loss, showing a lack of discipline again, and just a lack of will in the defensive zone.  The biggest stat to this game was the 40 blocked shots by the Flyers vs. the 18 by the Pens.  The Flyers simply wanted to earn it more (note what I said, not wanted it more, but wanted to earn it more), and that’s what they did as they shook hands with the Pens and said au revoir.

From fighting in Game 3, to a handshake after Game 6.
The sport of hockey and its traditions always deserve respect.

  

Top Penguins of the Series:

Jordan Staal – Though he couldn’t help the PK all that much in this series, he was easily the best 5 on 5 forward for the Penguins, scoring 6 goals on just 12 shots and leading the team with 9 points.  He played on different lines throughout the series, but seemed to have an impact every time he was on the ice, regardless of position or linemates.

Tyler Kennedy – Likely lost in the first round upset was the play of Tyler Kennedy, who had disappointed everyone through most of the regular season.  Kennedy was tied for second on the team with 3 goals and led the team in takeaways with 6.  I encourage you to read that again, KENNEDY LED THE TEAM IN TAKEAWAYS.  I doubt you’ll hear about it anywhere else, but TK played up to his potential in the series.

Say it with me, Tyler Kennedy played well.

Worst Penguins of the Series:

Brooks Orpik – While offense isn’t Orpik’s game, defense is supposed to be.  Those numbers didn’t work out very well as Orpik was on for only 5 goals for, and 14 goals against (7 during PKs).  The team leader in hits and reliable shut down defense during the regular season was a no-show for the playoffs, getting dominated in front of the net and taking some bad penalties around the crease.  What’s sad is Orpik wasn’t even called as much as he should have been, as he draped himself on JVR for 20 seconds without getting a penalty and committed numerous other infractions out of desperation (which usually didn’t work.)  It was a forgettable series for Orpik.

Textbook defense for a player getting owned all series.

Chris Kunitz – Expected to be an energy player that can mesh with any top line combination, all Kunitz did was take stupid penalty after stupid penalty in his best attempts to cost the Pens the series.  He was a momentum killer throughout the series and though he threw the body a lot, couldn’t find a way to energize his team via forechecking and hitting.  He led the team with 4 minor penalties in this series.

Evgeni Malkin – Before you start freaking out that I’m a Crosby fanboy, he’s coming up in the next section.  Malkin makes it here for his lackluster player and his inability to stay focused.  He led the team with 8 giveaways and 18 missed shots as 19 year old Sean Couturier shut him down.  Much of this was of Malkin’s own making, as he insisted on skating through multiple Flyers instead of dishing the puck off or adapting to their form of defense. 

Noteable Absentee Penguins of the Series:

Sidney Crosby – Sid was pretty much an absentee captain through much of the series.  He had nice goals to start Games 1 and 2, but tailed off as the games progressed.  I was encouraged by his fight with Giroux in Game 3 to spark the team, but then he acted like a child for the rest of the game trying to pick a fight.  He pretty much disappeared in Game 6 when the team needed him most.  He wasn’t awful..he just wasn’t there.  One big salvaging factor for Crosby was his 54.8% faceoff number, and he was flat out dominant in defensive zone faceoffs, even going 9 for 11 in one game.

Where was this fire in Game 6?

Kris Letang – Letang was going to be amongst my worst, but I’ll give him a little bit of a pass since he has been nursing a hip injury as we found out today.  His playing style was a cause for concern in the series though as he was solid offensively but nowhere to be found in the defensive zone.  He was also a turnover machine throughout the series.  The fight in Game 3, along with the Talbot shhhing maneuver, demonstrated great immaturity from the team’s best defenseman. 

Marc-Andre Fleury - He was solid in Game 1, good enough in Game 4, brilliant in Game 5, but not very helpful in Games 2, 3, and especially 6.  The defense did not help him out by any means, but elite goalies need to make timely saves to keep a team alive.  Fleury just couldn't consistently come up with the big saves that he made throughout the regular season.  Perhaps it was fatigue, perhaps it was a lack of confidence in the defense, perhaps he simply just didn't have it, but regardless, the team needed more out of Fleury to survive.

Interesting Individual Stats:

- Staal, Dupuis, and Orpik were all on for 7 PPGs against.  Staal and Orpik were on for 14g against, Dupuis for 13.

- Eric Tangradi was on for 2 goals for, 0 against.  Simon Despres was on for 4 goals for, 0 against.

- On the other side, Joe Vitale was on for 0 goals for, 4 against.

- Zbynek Michalek was on for 5 goals for, and only 6 against (only 3 while PKing), much better numbers than many would expect from him.

Michalek does more than you probably realize.

  

Interesting Team Stats:

- The Pens will finish the first round with close to the most missed shots in the league (84)

- They were almost dead last in takeaways (27), and almost the worst with giveaways (53).  The complete lack of puck possession and a huge negative turnover ratio cost the team greatly.

*I keep saying almost since the first round isn’t over yet.

- The powerplay finished with a 31% success rate, which is wonderful, but they also allowed 3 short-handed goals.

- The penalty kill finished with a 47.8% rate.  I don’t have words for how truly awful that is.

- Goals by Period: 1^st – 13, 2^nd – 11, 3^rd – 2.  That is the opposite of clutch.

Pictured: The Penalty Kill.

Key Unknown Injuries

- James Neal had a thumb injury

- Kris Letang had a hip injury

- Steve Sullivan had a foot injury

- Matt Niskanen had a shoulder injury

- Paul Martin had concussion-like symptoms (insert joke here)

So there ya have it, it’s not hard to see why the Pens lost with some of those ugly numbers.  Team Eulogy (not meant to be humorous, or anything like Puck Daddy), and Season recap (player by player) coming in the next few days.  Thanks for reading.

Pens End Their Season with a Whimper and Elimination

Quick Notes:

- Well, now you understand why I hated #PensIn7 so much.

- I’ll just recap the game here.  Series recap on Monday probably.  Season Eulogy shortly thereafter.  Eventually an offseason outlook.  However, I will be shifting more to Kings coverage at thehockeywriters.com too.

Result:

Flyers  5  Pens  1

Goals:  Malkin (3) (PP), unassisted

               

Interesting Stats:

- The Flyers blocked 40 shots.  That right there is a commitment to team defense and doing everything to win a game.  The Pens had that back in 2009.  They had nothing near that in this series.  It’s an attitude and a mindset; it has nothing to do with talent.

- Sidney Crosby and Brooks Orpik, arguably the 2 biggest leaders on this team, came up with a -3 each in this game.

- Kris Letang played almost 32 minutes in this game, including over 13 minutes in the 3^rd period.  He did not play those 32 minutes well.

The Good:

- Some players were good in spurts: Malkin at times, Neal, Staal, but no one was good enough throughout the game to get into this slot.

He showed more effort, but the Flyers D definitely won the battle.

The Bad:

- Well, Pens season is over, and it’s not because they weren’t the more talented team.  The Pens lost this series because the Flyers showed more focus, more preparation, and more discipline than the Pens.  That is simply unacceptable from top to bottom in the organization, and it is a VERY important lesson to a team of young stars that clearly thought they could win through anything, even a lack of work and willpower.  It is a lesson that they should have learned without this defeat though.

- Bylsma clicked the panic button almost immediately after the Flyers scored, pairing Malkin and Crosby together and changing up the lines constantly.  It was a pretty good sign right then that he didn’t know what to do and the Flyers were going to win this game.  The strength of having 3 amazing centers is that you have to force 3 different lines to play against them.  Pairing Crosby and Malkin together and then putting Staal on the 2^nd line hurt Bylsma’s depth at forward by his own doing.  Also, taking apart the team’s hottest line (Cooke-Staal-Kennedy) was a bad idea to begin with after the series they had.

This team realized their destiny quickly.

Steve Sullivan – I have praised Sullivan all series for his great effort and work ethic, but he didn’t show up in a big way today.  He gave up the puck to Giroux that led to the Flyers’ first goal 32 seconds into the game.  He also committed multiple turnovers at the blue line on the powerplay and made no impact in the offensive zone.  In a series where the average play was turnovers and disappointment from the Penguins, Sullivan reverted to the mean in Game 6.

Kris Letang – I have no clue what is going on with Kris Letang, but I hope he takes the offseason to relax and get back to normal.  He had trouble keeping pucks in at the points and his shot choices were flat out terrible.  I can recall at least 5 times where Letang shot it directly into the shins of a Flyers defender.  He also lost a foot race to Max Talbot, which is very unexpected for Letang’s skating skills.  Letang never really came through in this series as the Penguins needed him.

Sidney Crosby – Sidney?  Captain?  Where are you?  Crosby was quiet all game after getting rocked by Giroux on the very first shift.  He often looked tentative and lacked the grit he usually plays with.  I felt this was the worst game of his series and it looked like his least passionate.  Now I know Crosby cares and I’m sure he tried, but he went quiet at the wrong time for his team.  Captains can’t afford to do that.

Giroux was the clear cut winner in this battle.

The Ugly:

- The reffing was, well, inconsistent as usual, but the Pens put themselves in bad situations on their own. A Caps blog had a perfect bullet point for all your reffing qualms: “Everyone seems to want to talk about the refs rather than the hockey in this series, so this bullet is reserved for complaints about the officiating. Please choose one answer from each bracketed section and you'll have some fine boxed whine. "The [a) call; b) non-call] against [a) my team; b) their team] when [insert player name] committed [insert infraction] was [a) unconscionable; b) proof that Gary Bettman has a conspiracy against my team; c) responsible for all of the problems in Africa]. Until the NHL can get some refs that are [a) good; b) consistent; c) Vulcans], the league will always be relegated to [a) niche; b) garage; c) bush; d) Mickey Mouse] league status."”
(Credit to: Rob Parker on Jasper’s Rink: http://www.japersrink.com/2012/4/22/2967119/recap-bruins-4-capitals-3-overtime)

- Reffing aside, it was another game of bad penalties.  Cooke’s interference was simply stupid as he put himself in a bad position on the blue line where Kunitz had gotten called earlier in the series.  The Flyers scored on the ensuing PP to make it a 2-0 lead, which apparently was insurmountable today.  Niskanen also took a stupid slashing penalty late in the game, and honestly could have gotten a few more with the way he was whacking people.  The discipline and hockey IQ on this team were not impressive through this series

Marc-Andre Fleury – I am frequently the one defending Fleury, but this Game 6 reminded me so much of Game 7 vs. Montreal 2 years ago.  The first goal was a tough shot, but savable for a goalie of Fleury’s caliber who can come up with big saves.  He then had a couple of weak goals from pucks bouncing around the crease area and also a horrible shot from the blue line that he let in.  Yeah, the shot was deflected by Michalek’s stick, but it was so far out that Fleury is capable of reacting to it in time.  The defense may not have helped him, but he didn’t help himself either.

This picture...well it says a lot. 

Thoughts:

- I can simply say, I expected a stronger, harder, and more furious start from the Pens, but they didn’t play with any urgency until it was too late.

- I was amazed that Neal a) forearmed Jagr in the back of the head at the end of the 1^st period and b) got away with it.  Shining example of players not learning anything from a 1 game suspension.  I expect better conduct out of him.

- The Pens wasted a wonderful opportunity by displaying an amazing amount of immaturity early in the series.  The problem with going down 3-0 is that, no matter how talented you are, you need 4 perfect games to move on.  The Pens had 2 wonderful games, but stringing together 4 was asking for too much.  This playoff team simply did not act like the team that put up 50+ wins in the regular season, but I’ll cover that more in the series recap and season recaps later this week.

- Also, give the Flyers a lot of credit in many facets. Laviolette coached brilliantly, Giroux showed up to play his best in the biggest game of the series, and their powerplay made a joke of the Pens penalty kill.  They outplayed the Pens, no matter how much we all hate it.  They earned the right to move on.  It’s on the Penguins for not earning that right themselves.

Pens season is over.

Flyers win the series 4-2 and move on to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.