Sunday, February 19, 2012

Pens sign Neal to 6yr, $30 mil deal

So, as the title says, GM Ray Shero signed James Neal to a 6 year, $30 mil extension this morning.  On this day, at this point in time, it looks like a great contract and an absolute steal.
I imagine this was Neal's look as he signed it.

Let's break it down into POTENTIAL pros and cons:

Pros:
- Neal has had a breakout year at the age of 24, already with career highs of 30 goals and 56 points through only 58 games so far.

- The chemistry between Malkin and Neal has almost been tangible with how impressive it has been.  This contract keeps Neal next to Geno, and may entice Geno to stay when it's his turn to extend as well.

- The contract keeps Neal through the prime of his career, until he's 30.

- At $5 mil/yr., if Neal continues to put up 30-40 goals through the contract, it's a great deal by NHL standards.  Other guys making $5 mil or more and failing miserably in comparison: Gomez, Cammalleri, Semin, and many many more.  Even highly sought after, free agent to-be, Zach Parise has less production than Neal.
Imagine seeing that goofy smile 40-50 times every year until 2018.
Cons:
- Neal is being paid at a potential high point in his career.  I'm not saying Neal has peaked, nor that he won't turn into a 50 goal scorer, just that he is getting  paid at the instant of his best performance, which is a questionable way to give out contracts sometimes (see: the above questionable contracts).

- His performance has also been mostly with a healthy, and NHL dominant Malkin.  We have seen what Mario could do with his wingers.  I'm not suggesting that's the case with Neal, but it's something to consider in how much he's truly worth.  The Pens always have a difficult task in judging a players value with and without centers like Crosby and Malkin.

- Let's say, for arguments sake, Neal turns into one of those players who puts in a spectacular regular season every year but disappears in the playoffs.  Do we still like the contract?  We don't have a barometer for that yet because I consider last season an aberration, but that just means no measurement still.

- The Salary Cap, which sits at $64 million right now, is expected to go up after this season...until September.  Then, it appears that everyone in the NHL is expecting an argument and another short lockout that will bring down player's revenue and also bring down the cap which has been increasing every year.  How much the cap moves will certainly have an impact on how strong of a deal this is since it covers 6 years.
Here's to seeing a lot more pictures like this!

Bottom line is this:  A contract can't be judged at any instant in time, but only over the full length of its term.  Shero has had the luxury of giving extensions to proven players that the Pens have had for a while (Orpik, Fleury, Letang, Crosby, Malkin).  He also gave out an iffy 6 year, $24 mil. deal to Ryan Whitney (though admittedly, he fixed that one quite well).  This contract will be an interesting test for Shero.

As of today, it's a win.  But don't throw the parade quite yet!


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