Pens Season Preview: 2011-2012

Happy NHL Opening Day to you all!!  As the Penguins get their season started tonight with a late game @ Vancouver (10pm), I figured I better sneak out a quick preview on the season.

Here’s a quick look at last year’s final stats:

Record:  49-25-8, 106 points (2^nd place Atlantic Division, 4^th place Eastern Conference)

Home:  25-14-2

Road:  24-11-6

Goals For:  228 (13^th)

Goals Against:  196 (6^th)

Powerplay:  15.8% (25^th)

Penalty Kill:  86.1% (1^st) 

Leading Scorers: 

Crosby, 66 pts 
Letang, 50 pts 
Kunitz, 48 pts 

Key Injuries: 

Crosby – missed 41 games with a concussion 
Malkin – missed 39 games with a torn ACL 
Staal – missed 40 games with foot and hand injuries

Highlights:  12 game winning streak, Crosby’s production, Johnson punching out DiPietro. 

Lowlights:  Crosby’s concussion, Islanders brawl, elimination.

Eliminated:  1^st round in 7 games to the Tampa Bay Lightning

When you look at the statistics and the injuries, you can’t help but question how on earth Dan Bylsma got this team within a hair of winning the Atlantic Division.  I guess that’s the type of performance that earns you the Jack Adams trophy, and deservedly so.  The leading scorers and injury report just make you want to cringe.

 

Going into this season, some things have changed, but the Penguins are still the same team at their core.

Acquisitions:  Richard Park, Steve Sullivan, Steve MacIntyre, Boris Valabik

Departures:  Alex Kovalev, Maxime Talbot, Mike Rupp, Chris Conner, Mike Comrie, Brett Sterling, Eric Godard

Chances are, the only 2 departures you cared about were Max Talbot and Mike Rupp, and mostly because they went to the Flyers and Rangers respectively, so we will see them at least 6 times a piece.  But all in all, the Penguins gained more than they lost, and are likely a better team today than they were in October 2010.  Add a little bit of health into this team after a longer than usual off-season, and it’s time to look ahead to your 2011-2012 Penguins!!

Goaltenders

#29 Marc-Andre Fleury  (65gp, 36-20-5, 2.32 GAA, .918 Save %, Cap Hit: $5 mil)

Fleury put together one of the most Jekyll and Hyde seasons possible last year, finishing the season as one of the hottest goalies after a dismal start.  (Bandwagon/Idiot) fans clamored for his benching/trade through the first month of the season as the Flower could not find his game in any way, shape, or form.  But alas, Fleury came back with a vengeance and was one of the major reasons the Penguins were in the conference race until the end.

Prediction:  41 wins, 2.24 GAA, .916 Save %.  Fleury’s issue has always been consistency, but a more consistent defense in front of him should help his cause.  He shouldn’t face many quality chances in most games with this lineup, and I expect him to have a strong season.

#1 Brent Johnson  (23gp, 13-5-3, 2.17 GAA, .922 Save %, Cap Hit: $600,000) **Contract Year (UFA)

Johnson was hailed as a savior for the first month of the season, disappeared for a couple of months, and then promptly broke Rick DiPietro’s face.  He played his best when the Penguins needed it the most as Fleury had a slow start.  We also learned that he has one hell of a punch.

Prediction:  11 wins, 2.41 GAA, .917 Save %.  Johnson is one of the most capable backups in the league and is ready to jump in when the team needs him.  You really can’t ask for any more out of a backup goalie, and he’s a steal at that cap price.

Defensemen

#58 Kris Letang  (82 gp, 8g, 42a, +15, Cap Hit:  $3.5 mil)

Admittedly, I am not the biggest Kris Letang fan (has some big mental defensive lapses, can’t hit the net with a slapshot, thinks he’s a forward).  Even with my bias against him, it was easy to see Letang was playing hockey worthy of Norris candidacy to start last season.  He slowed down greatly though as injuries to Crosby and Malkin took away his help later in the season and he fell back into a lot of bad habits.

Prediction:  14g, 40a.  Letang still has room to grow and hasn’t hit his prime yet.  He took his first big step towards it in the first half of last season, and he will continue to grow this year.  Look for a revamped powerplay to help him increase his goal scoring and put him back into Norris talks again.

#44 Brooks Orpik  (63gp, 1g, 12a, +12, Cap Hit:  $3.75 mil)

Orpik did exactly what you would expect him to do last season.  He leveled people at important times, played solid stay-at-home defense, and even contributed a random goal.  There really isn’t much to say about his season from last year, what you see is what you get with this hard hitting defender.

Prediction:  0g, 8a.  Sorry Brooks, I just don’t see you randomly finding the net again this year.  Orpik will start the season in the press box as he recovers from a sports hernia surgery for a few games.  Once he’s back, he’ll be your above-average stay-at-home defender.   Expect big hits and solid defense.  He is going to need to clear out the crease if the Penguins want to survive teams like Tampa Bay who exploited them from around the net.

#7 Paul Martin  (77gp, 3g, 21a, +9, Cap Hit:  $5 mil)

Martin came into last season as GM Ray Shero’s prize signing.  His start to the season was forgettable as he had trouble meshing with the Penguins style of play.  As the season progressed, his defensive play improved, but the offense never showed up for a player who was expected to contribute on the powerplay as well.  Martin proved himself to be a solid defender, but one who carries an awfully big cap hit for his production.

Prediction:  7g, 23a.  Another hopeful beneficiary of a good (competent?) powerplay, Martin should see his stats increase a bit.  There will be no adjustment to make this year, and he will step out at full speed this season.  He sees the ice well, and his head man passes will be a big key to the Penguins breakout.

#4 Zbynek Michalek  (73gp, 5g, 14a, Even, Cap Hit:  $4 mil)

If you missed Rob Scuderi as badly as I did, Zbynek Michalek was a sight for sore eyes.  Another one of Shero’s big signings, Michalek also got off to a slow start to the season.  He often looked lost in the defensive end in the first month, and after a minor injury, came back to show us the defensive game we expected.  Michalek was a shot blocking machine, and demonstrated a surprisingly strong slapshot towards the end of the season.

Prediction:  2g, 13a.  Michalek is another stay-at-home defender and makes his money for blocking shots more than doing anything with the puck.  He is another player who should benefit from having a full season in the Penguins defensive system and he will be a rock on defense.  Don’t expect much offense out of him though.

#6 Ben Lovejoy  (47gp, 3g, 14a, +11, Cap Hit:  $525,000)

Lovejoy’s Hollywood moment came in the form of a fully swollen face on HBO’s 24/7 special after being hit with a shot.  When he wasn’t busy looking like Frankenstein, he frequented the 3^rd defensive pairing and played sufficient defense.  Not an overly gifted defenseman, Lovejoy earns his spot by not making many mental mistakes (though who knows if he could say that 5 times fast). 

Prediction:  4g, 11a.  This is a tough prediction to make.  The top 4 defenders take a large majority of the minutes, and the 3^rd line pairing will not get many opportunities.  Lovejoy will play admirably in a limited role on this team, but the goal for him is to not be noticed for making mistakes, rather than to do anything flashy.

#5 Deryk Engelland  (63gp, 3g, 7a, -5, Cap Hit:  $566,667)

Engelland quickly made a name for himself purely on fighting ability in the NHL.  He took down Colton Orr and knocked out Taylor Pyatt within the first 2 months of the season, taking the NHL's goons by storm.  His time grew more limited as the season drew on once the team added Matt Niskanen and pushed for skilled skaters heading into the playoff race.

Prediction:  1g, 4a.  Engelland puts himself in a tough spot in the NHL.  He is a capable 7^th defenseman, but it is a stretch to trust him for an 82 game season.  Additionally, losing a defenseman to a 5 minute major is highly frowned upon in key situations.  A fan favorite for sure, I expect Engelland to contribute in a very similar fashion to last year – big early, disappearing late.

#2 Matt Niskanen  (63gp, 1g, 9a, -3, Cap Hit:  $1.5 mil) **Contract Year (RFA)

Niskanen was acquired close to the trade deadline when the Penguins traded away Alex Goligoski.  In previous seasons, he has shown flashes of offensive talent, but he never really put his game together last season.  He was frustratingly inconsistent from shift to shift last season.

Prediction:  4g, 14a.  Niskanen has the puck moving abilities to help the offense, but his inconsistent play keeps him on the 3^rd pairing and will limit his ice time.  He will likely be the subject of many trade rumors since the Penguins have 7 defensemen with NHL-only contracts. 

#3 Boris Valabik  (Played in the AHL, Cap Hit:  $550,000)

Valabik played for the (then-existent) Thrashers 2 years ago and was stuck in the AHL last season.  All you need to know is that he is 6’7 and can throw a punch.  Think Engelland except you care about him less. 

Prediction:  0g, 0a.  He’ll likely stay in the AHL all season barring injuries.

Forwards

#71 Evgeni Malkin  (43gp, 15g, 22a, -4, Cap Hit:  $8.7 mil)

Malkin has “struggled” through the past 2 seasons after setting the bar extremely high in his Conn Smythe winning season.  Injuries have been a major issue, and he has been inconsistent and unfocused at times.  Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau even called Malkin out in the 24/7 series for his inability to shrug off a big hit or any type of annoyance in the game.  Malkin played to par for the first half of the season before missing the last half with an ACL tear.

Prediction:  42g, 57a.  I believe Malkin will play amongst the best, but fall just short of the 100 point mark.  He is going to have to lead this team until Crosby returns (if not after) and the Penguins need a consistent effort from him.  I still worry about him controlling his emotions in the game, but he has the talent to take this team far on his own.

#26 Steve Sullivan  (44gp, 10g, 12a, +4, Cap Hit:  $1.5 mil)  **Contract Year (UFA)

Sullivan joins the Penguins after a few seasons in Nashville.  He is a small, quick forward with a great sniper shot.  The issue with Sullivan the past couple of seasons has been his durability as he has aged.  The Penguins are looking at him as a top line winger and a powerplay catalyst this year.

Prediction:  12g, 19a.  As much as I want Sullivan to contribute in a big way, I don’t think he will adjust to play in the Eastern Conference as well.  He is likely going to take many more checks in the slower, grinding game that the East plays.  I expect him to get most of his points on the powerplay, and he will help that unit improve, but injuries may plague him again this year.

#18 James Neal  (79gp, 22g, 23a, +7, Cap Hit:  $2.875 mil)  **Contract Year (RFA)

Neal came over in the Goligoski trade with Dallas and was expected to be that top line scoring winger that the Penguins have so desperately chased for years.  He scored 2 goals (1 regular season, 1 playoffs).  Despite his inability to produce offense, he demonstrated a great ability to backcheck and played strong 2 way hockey.  Unfortunately, that wasn’t what the Penguins traded for.

Prediction:  26g, 24a.  I like the responsibility that Neal shows with his game, but that isn’t the first thing that should jump out at you from a scoring winger.  Over the course of the season, he’ll certainly score some big goals, but I think he will fall short of 30.  He lacks shot accuracy, and I have a bad feeling he is going to blow a lot of beautiful setups from Malkin.

#11 Jordan Staal  (42gp, 11g, 19a, +7, Cap Hit:  $4 mil)

Staal missed the first half of the season with injuries that could have only been caused after he broke a mirror, walked under a ladder, and opened an umbrella indoors.  When he came back, the 2 centers in front of him quickly went down with injuries, and Staal was thrust into the #1 center spot.  What did we learn last year?  Staal is not a #1 center.  Always a stud on defense and the penalty kill, Staal still struggled to find the scoring touch he saw his rookie season.

Prediction:  24g, 27a.  On this team, Staal has grown into the perfect 3^rd line center.  I don’t believe he will ever score 30 goals, but he will remain amongst the best defensive forwards in the game.  Staal will start this season as the 2^nd center, and I think that may cause him to have a slow start on the scoresheet, but he will improve as the season grinds on.

#14 Chris Kunitz  (66gp, 23g, 25a, +18, Cap Hit:  $3.725 mil)  **Contract Year (UFA)

For every irrational bit of hate I put into Letang, I return that as love to Chris Kunitz.  Kunitz quietly put together a very strong season despite constantly switching lines and losing centers.  Most of you will never remember a goal he scores because they are never flashy, but he has a nose for where the puck is going to be and he can certainly finish.

Prediction:  29g, 27a.  As long as he can stay healthy, Kunitz should improve on his numbers from last season purely based on improved linemates throughout the year.  He shows great chemistry with Crosby, and he will catch fire when Sid comes back to the ice.

#48 Tyler Kennedy  (80gp, 21g, 24a, +1, Cap Hit:  $2 mil)

Kennedy put together the best season of his career in a contract year and was rewarded this year with a $2mil/yr deal.  TK stepped up his game after Crosby and Malkin went down, and was one of the bright spots of the offense towards the end of the season.  Though very undersized, Kennedy gets his points through strong effort and wrist shots that catch many goalies by surprise.

Prediction:  17g, 18a.  Kennedy will begin the season as a 2^nd line winger.  Personally, I don’t believe he is meant to be anything more than a 3^rd line winger, and this season will show it.  I expect him to take a small step back this year and would not be surprised to see him get hurt as his small frame gets more ice time against some big defensemen.

#10 Mark Letestu  (64gp, 14g, 13a, +4, Cap Hit:  $625,000)

Letestu was a surprise on the opening night roster a year ago, and started the season by leading rookies in points for the first few weeks.  Nothing necessarily jumps out at you about him; he is just a very aware player at both ends of the rink.  Injuries slowed his quick start and he never bounced back to regain the form he had in the first month of the season.

Prediction:  12g, 17a.  Letestu will be the beneficiary of Crosby missing time early as he will fill out minutes as the 3^rd line center.  But he may have difficulty staying in the lineup once Crosby and Dustin Jeffrey get healthy.

#9 Pascal Dupuis  (81gp, 17g, 20a, +16, Cap Hit:  $1.5 mil)

Dupuis has often been found on Crosby’s wing and that is where he earned the majority of his points early last season.  Once Crosby went down, Dupuis dropped to the 3^rd and 4^th lines and put in solid checking work, though not much on the scoreboard.

Prediction:  11g, 14a.  Dupuis is likely going to see more limited ice time than he did last year and his numbers are going to suffer because of it.  The Penguins know what they are getting out of him in a good defensive forward who can add a spark, but he is a run of the mill 3^rd liner when he is not playing next to a superstar.

#24 Matt Cooke  (67gp, 12g, 18a, +14, Cap Hit:  $1.8 mil)

Cooke’s season was defined by his hits and suspensions.  He was suspended twice during the season, with the 2^nd one keeping him out of the playoffs.  He was a great pest when he was in the lineup, and can show some surprising offensive ability when he tries, but he often went too far over the line in lining up hits.

Prediction:  15g, 20a.  Cooke is supposedly coming back as a changed man who will no longer cross the line.  I expect him to still try and pester the opposing team’s top line, but if he is true to his word, there will be a greater effort in his offensive game as well.  It’s time Cooke shows off his skills rather than his elbows.

#46 Joe Vitale  (9gp, 1g, 1a, -1, Cap Hit:  $512,500)  **Contract Year (RFA)

Vitale is this year’s Letestu.  A surprise making the opening night roster, Coach Dan Bylsma has said that he likes Vitale’s faceoff ability and his 2-way play.  He had a short call up last season and did not do much to catch my attention at least.

Prediction:  2g, 3a.  I expect Vitale to only be around until Jeffrey or Crosby returns.  Once he is sent back down, it’s a crapshoot on who gets called up and how he plays back in the AHL after a taste of the NHL.  Enjoy your 2^nd debut Joe.

#27 Craig Adams  (80gp, 4g, 11a, -5, Cap Hit:  $675,500)

Adams did his best work in the defensive end last year as he led the team towards a #1 ranking on the penalty kill.  He was the ultimate role player, blocking shots on defense and grinding in the corners on offense.

Prediction:  3g, 9a.  Adams should be a lock in the lineup on most nights for his penalty killing ability alone.  The amount of time he actually plays aside from that will be a toss-up as the Penguins attempt to trot more skilled wingers out onto the ice.  He’ll score his most important goals in the playoffs anyways.

#45 Arron Asham  (44gp, 5g, 6a, Even, Cap Hit:  $775,000)  **Contract Year (UFA)

Asham experienced injury problems (who didn’t) throughout the first half of last season and then finally grew into the Penguins team as the race to the playoffs began.  He was one of the most productive players in the playoffs and opened up many eyes with his ability to handle himself in front of the net and create space.

Prediction:  16g, 9a.  I don’t believe we’ve seen the best of Asham yet.  Bylsma has now seen his ability to act as a spark plug and Asham may be the perfect replacement for Max Talbot’s “moxie” if he can stay healthy.  He’s got better hands than he lets on, I think we’ll find out about them soon.

#33 Steve MacIntyre  (34gp, 0g, 1a, -1, Cap Hit:  $600,000) **Contract Year (UFA)

MacIntyre was signed over the offseason essentially to replace Eric Godard.  He is expected to protect the Pens (see: Sidney Crosby when he returns) and will certainly not dress for every game.  Expect him to see a healthy dose of the Flyers and Islanders though.

Prediction:  1g, 1a.  Even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut, right?  I don’t think MacIntyre will play much at all, but he’ll have a random memorable goal for how goofy it was, I imagine.

#15 Dustin Jeffrey  (25gp, 7g, 5a, +5, Cap Hit:  $575,000)

Jeffrey got his chance to play as injuries started hitting the Penguins hard last year.  He made the best of his opportunity, showing himself to be an able scorer at the NHL level after leading the WBS Pens in scoring.  He is beginning the season on the Injured Reserve as he recovers from last season’s leg injury, and may have a tough time getting back into this lineup.  He has certainly proven himself worthy of a chance after last year’s debut though.

Prediction:  9g,  13a.  Jeffrey will see limited time with the Pens through the season due to injuries and roster moves and I believe he will make the most of his chances.  He is going to be one of many players knocking on the door in case any of the veterans get off to a slow start this season.

#12 Richard Park (Played Overseas, Cap Hit:  $550,000)  **Contract Year (UFA)

Yes, this is the same Richard Park that we drafted when I was in 4^th grade.  Yes, it’s also the same Richard Park who seemed to score shorthanded against us every game when he was with the Islanders.  Known for his speed and penalty killing ability, Park is a solid depth addition for the Pens.

Prediction:  8g, 6a.  Park will undoubtedly crack the lineup at some point, as when was the last time an NHL team stayed healthy.  His speed is a major asset, and training camp demonstrated he still hasn’t lost a step yet.  He will be very reliable in the minutes he does get. 

#87 Sidney Crosby  (41gp, 32g, 34a, +20, Cap Hit:  $8.7 mil)

Ahhh…this guy.  We all know his story.  Led the league in scoring for the first half of the season, then was knocked out by a concussion.  Oh, and he still led the league in scoring for a month after he was out with a concussion.  The biggest question mark for the Penguins and the NHL is when is Sidney Crosby coming back?

Prediction:  33g, 48a.  I expect Crosby to be back in the lineup by Thanksgiving.  This is unfounded and maybe even hopeful, so take it with a grain of salt.  He will start slow when he comes back, but once he gets used to the pace and the hitting, expect him to light the NHL on fire again.  There’s no doubt in my mind that he wants to come back and show everyone that even a concussion can’t stop his dominance in this league.

Season Predictions:

Record:  52-23-7, 111 points (1^st place Atlantic Division, 2^nd place Eastern Conference)

Goals For:  252 **I realize the goals for doesn’t match up with the players totals, gotta leave room for injuries/callups/etc.

Goals Against:  207

A return to health and the addition of a winger or 2 will help the Penguins increase their goal scoring output.  However, they are going to allow more goals as their game transitions slightly out of the defensive shell that they played last season without their stars.

Powerplay:  19.6%

Penalty Kill:  86.4%

The powerplay can’t possibly get worse, so I’m guessing it will improve greatly.  James Neal and Steve Sullivan will be a big factor in those numbers going up.  Meanwhile, the penalty kill should not see a significant change, as most of the personnel has returned.  Richard Park may even lead to a higher scoring penalty kill.

Leading Scorers:
Malkin, 99 pts
Crosby, 81 pts 
Letang, 54 pts

LET’S GO PENS!!!  (Conference and Playoff predictions coming this weekend)

And my Prediction for Game 1 since there is nothing to break down yet:  

The Penguins will suffer an opening game loss, 3-2 to the Canucks.  Goals from Malkin and Neal.  Here's hoping I'm wrong!  (Recap coming after the game)