Monday, April 4, 2011

Sizing up the Final Week: Western Conference

As we head into the final week of the NHL season, it's time that I try and fail at predicting how things will end up.

Current order of Playoff potential teams:
1. Vancouver, 113 pts
2. Detroit, 102 pts
3. San Jose, 101 pts
4. Phoenix, 96 pts
5. Los Angeles, 96 pts
6. Nashville, 95 pts
7. Anaheim, 93 pts
8. Chicago, 92 pts
9. Calgary, 91 pts
10. Dallas, 89 pts
The Sedin twins show off their alter egos.


1. Vancouver, 113 pts.  3 games left (@ Edm, vs. Min, @ Cal) 
The Canucks has clinched everything from their division to world domination at this point in the season.  They have nothing to play for but no one likes going into the playoffs on a losing streak.  Expect wins against Edmonton and Minnesota, but a loss in Calgary to a team who will kill for their last points.


2.  Detroit, 102 pts.  3 games left (@ Car, vs. Chi, @ Chi)
The Red Wings have clinched their division, but are facing strong competition from San Jose for this spot.  As a veteran savvy team, playoff positioning isn't their biggest concern.  They will likely lose to a desperate Carolina team and then split the home and home with Chicago, which may turn into an interesting step into the playoffs.
Will they choke under the playoff heat again?


3.  San Jose, 101 pts.  4 games left (vs. LA, @ Ana, @ Pho, vs. Pho)
The Sharks have made an incredible run in the last 2 months to solidify their playoff positioning.  Their last 4 games are a rough stretch, but very few teams have put up a big fight recently.  I see a win vs. LA, followed by 2 losses on the road and a win to finish off the season.


4.  Phoenix, 96 pts.  3 games left (@ LA, vs. SJ, @ SJ)
The Coyotes are the least talked about team in the playoff race as usual, but only 1 point away from clinching their ticket.  I think they will first take a close loss to LA, but then split the San Jose home and home to finally get a win against the Sharks who have owned them this season.


5.  Los Angeles, 96 pts.  4 games left (@ SJ, vs. Pho, @ Ana, vs. Ana)
The Kings are still treading water after the big loss of Anze Kopitar for the season.  The goaltending for this team has been outstanding, especially since Jonathan Quick learned he can move objects with his mind.  Also a point away from clinching, I expect the Kings to take care of business against Phoenix after losing to San Jose.  Anaheim will present an interesting series as the Ducks may be desperate or may have clinched by then.  I'll be safe and split the series.


6.  Nashville, 95 pts.  3 games left (vs. Atl, vs. Cls, @ StL)
The Predators have the 2nd best set of final games of all of the Western Conference teams.  St. Louis at the end may give them a fight, but I expect 3 wins out of Nashville to finish the season.  This streak will largely coincide with the reappearance of Mike Fisher's game at both ends of the rink.
Retirement - party of 1?


7.  Anaheim, 93 pts.  3 games left (vs. SJ, vs. LA, @ LA)
The Ducks on the other hand, face what is probably the toughest set of 3 games to end the season.  The resurgence of Teemu Selanne (did he ever truly leave?) will act as a major building block for this team as they come up with 2 big wins at home before dropping their final game to LA.


8.  Chicago, 92 pts.  4 games left (@ Mtl, vs. StL, @ Det, vs. Det)
The Blackhawks have gone extremely cold is recent weeks but still have an edge since they have 4 games left to play.  Patrick Sharp should return later this week, which will improve all aspects of this team.  I see them alternating games the rest of the way, taking losses at Montreal and Detroit.


9.  Calgary, 91 pts.  2 games left (vs. Edm, vs. Van)
For as bad as the Flames started this season, it is remarkable that they will be playing meaningful games down to the very end.  I don't think they will have any problem winning their last 2 games.  But, it remains to be seen whether that will be enough to get them into the playoffs.


10.  Dallas, 89 pts.  4 games left (vs. Cls, vs. Col, @ Col, @ Min)
The schedule shapes up incredibly well for the Stars, but their play of late does not bode well.  Dallas has fallen off over the past 2 weeks but still has a chance to get into the playoffs with a favorable schedule.  All of the numbers should say they would win 4, but I think only 3 out of 4 would be reasonable.  Colorado is going to play the spoiler in one of those home and home games.


My predicted final order:
1. Vancouver, 117 pts.
2. San Jose, 105 pts.
3. Detroit, 104 pts.
4. Nashville, 101 pts.
5. Los Angeles, 100 pts.
6. Phoenix, 98 pts.
7. Anaheim, 97 pts.
8. Chicago, 96 pts.

9. Dallas, 95 pts.
10. Calgary, 95 pts.

Sorry Stars and Flames...no solace in finishing 1 point out.  But alas, what are the odds of my predicting this accurately?  It's going to be a crazy week!  Enjoy!

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