Thursday, March 10, 2011

Is it time to eliminate 3 point games?

Now that we're past the trade deadline (and I've purchased NHL Center Ice), we've hit that time of year where playoff positioning is shaking out and teams are desperate for every point they can possibly get.  So far in March, that has led to a significant increase in overtime games, and thus 3 point games.  For those not familiar with the points system in hockey, teams get 2 points for a regulation win or an overtime win, 1 point for an overtime loss, and 0 points for a regulation loss.  Therefore, one can argue that teams should push for overtime in order to hedge their bets and get at least 1 point, especially in a tight playoff race.

Here are the monthly stats for overtime games in the NHL so far:
Oct - 33 overtime games out of 156, or 21% of games
Nov - 41 out of 201, 20%
Dec - 54 out of 208, 26%
Jan - 44 out of 185, 24%
Feb - 43 out of 191, 23%
Mar (so far) - 25 out of 66, 38%

Though there have only been 66 games in March so far, it appears we will surpass the amount of overtime games from October by the end of this week.  This leads to quite a few extra points for losing and has caused some mind-boggling playoff races, namely in the West.

Here are the standings as of 3/10.  I've added overtime records and also shootout wins since the new tiebreaker is who has more non-shootout wins.

Eastern Conference
Record
Points
OT Record
SO Wins
1. Philadelphia
41-19-6
88
4-6
2
2. Washington
38-20-10
86
9-10
3
3. Boston
38-20-8
84
2-8
1
4. Pittsburgh
39-21-8
86
10-8
5
5. Tampa Bay
38-21-8
84
14-8
6
6. Montreal
37-23-7
81
6-7
2
7. NY Rangers
35-30-4
74
10-4
7
8. Carolina
31-26-10
72
9-9
4





9. Buffalo
32-26-8
72
12-8
5
10. Toronto
29-28-10
68
6-10
4
11. Atlanta
28-28-11
67
12-11
3
12. New Jersey
30-32-4
64
8-4
3
13. Florida
27-31-9
63
9-9
4
14. NY Islanders
26-32-10
62
10-10
3
15. Ottawa
23-34-9
55
1-9
1





Western Conference
Record
Points
OT Record
SO Wins
1. Vancouver
43-16-9
95
6-9
3
2. Detroit
39-20-8
86
11-8
4
3. San Jose
39-22-6
84
10-6
5
4. Chicago
37-24-7
81
7-7
5
5. Calgary
36-24-9
81
10-9
8
6. Dallas
36-23-8
80
10-8
5
7. Los Angeles
37-25-5
79
8-5
7
8. Phoenix
34-23-11
79
6-11
4





9. Minnesota
35-25-5
77
7-7
2
10. Anaheim
36-26-5
77
10-5
4
11. Nashville
33-24-10
76
6-10
6
12. Columbus
31-26-9
71
8-9
4
13. St. Louis
30-28-4
69
7-9
4
14. Colorado
26-32-8
60
8-8
3
15. Edmonton
23-37-8
54
4-8
2


Just take a look at some of the OT numbers there.  Atlanta has played in 23 overtime games this season out of their 67 (34%).  Tampa Bay has played in 22.  The lowest number of overtime games belongs to Ottawa with 10 out of 66 (15%).

Now let’s take a look at some of the win and loss totals in overtime.  Tampa Bay and Atlanta show up again, getting 14 and 12 wins respectively in overtime.  For Tampa Bay, that’s 14 out of 38 wins in extra time, or 37%.  Meanwhile, the leaders in overtime losses are Atlanta and Phoenix, both with 11.  

So based on the NHL’s system, Tampa Bay has gotten 22 points just for being tied after 60 minutes, and has received an additional 14 points for winning in overtime.  So a total of 36 of Tampa Bay’s 84 points (43%) have been earned via overtime.

Compare Tampa Bay to a team like Philadelphia.  The Flyers have been involved in 10 overtime games, and have gone 4-6 in such games.  Therefore, Philadelphia has received 10 points just for going to overtime, and an additional 4 points for wins in overtime.  Philly has earned only 14 out of their 88 points (16%) beyond regulation time.

Now if you look at the standings, Tampa Bay is only 4 points behind Philly.  Why should Tampa Bay, who routinely requires extra time to earn their points, be anywhere near Philly in the standings when the Flyers get their work done in regulation most of the time.  The flaw in the system is that the failure to win in regulation can act as a reward for many teams, but there is no adequate reward for teams that actually do win in regulation.

My suggested solution would be to implement a new points system, where winning in regulation would earn 2 points, winning in overtime would earn 1 point, and losing in overtime or regulation would earn 0 points.  This system would reward teams for winning in 60 minutes, reward teams at a discounted rate for needing more than 60 minutes to win, and stop rewarding teams for losing.  

**It should be noted that a similar system that is mentioned often is one where teams would receive 3 points for a regulation win, 2 points for an overtime win, 1 point for an overtime loss, and 0 points for a regulation loss.  The reason I don’t buy into this system is that the losing team is still rewarded in overtime.  Isn’t winning the whole point of the game?  (And having fun, yeah yeah…)

Here are the standings as they would be under my suggested point system.  The record is listed as (Wins-Losses-OT Wins).

Eastern Conference
Record
Points
1. Philadelphia
36-25-5
77
2. Boston
36-28-2
74
3. Washington
29-30-10
68
4. Pittsburgh
29-29-10
68
5. Montreal
31-30-6
68
6. Tampa Bay
24-29-14
62
7. NY Rangers
25-34-10
60
8. Carolina
22-36-9
53



9. Buffalo
20-34-12
52
10. Toronto
23-38-6
52
11. New Jersey
22-36-8
52
12. Florida
18-40-9
45
13. Ottawa
22-43-1
45
14. Atlanta
16-39-12
44
15. NY Islanders
16-42-10
42



Western Conference
Record
Points
1. Vancouver
37-25-6
80
2. San Jose
29-28-10
68
3. Chicago
30-31-7
67
4. Detroit
28-28-11
67
5. Los Angeles
29-30-8
66
6. Dallas
26-31-10
64
7. Minnesota
28-32-7
63
8. Phoenix
28-34-6
62



9. Anaheim
26-31-10
62
10. Calgary
26-33-10
62
11. Nashville
27-34-6
60
12. Columbus
23-35-8
52
13. St. Louis
23-37-7
51
14. Colorado
18-40-8
44
15. Edmonton
19-45-4
42


Now, the records look a little odd in the conversion, because of the large amount of overtime games in this season.  Theoretically, they would even out more once the system is implemented because no team would want to go to overtime.

Another interesting thing to note about the records is that there are only 5 teams in the NHL right now that have more regulation wins than they have total losses (overtime and regulation).  Those 5 are Philadelphia, Boston, Montreal, Vancouver, and San Jose.  Two more have an equal amount, Pittsburgh and Detroit.

Under this system, the playoff races would still be tight and exciting.  Additionally, teams would have no encouragement to go to overtime, making for some great 3rd periods of hockey.  Finally, teams would be properly rewarded for winning in regulation time and would not be rewarded for losing a game.  So the question is…how do I get this into an NHL meeting?

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